The probability of President Trump approving strategic Bitcoin reserves within his first 100 days in office has fallen to 27% on Polymarket, down from a high of 60% after his election. The amount wagered on this event has exceeded $1.5 million.
Meanwhile, other prediction markets expect that Trump will eventually accept Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, joining the ranks of oil and gold.
For example, Kalshi predicted that the occurrence probability of Bitcoin reserves reached 61% by January 2026, which was a high point since December 21st and currently fell back to 57%.
In addition, users of Polymarket and Kalshi predict that it will take time for Texas to pass the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act.
The possibility of Texas passing this act before March next year is predicted at 10% on Polymarket and at 24% on Kalshi.
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