Bitcoin (BTC) continues its upward trajectory, reaching new milestones as the year draws to a close. Recent insights from Bitfinex shed light on when Bitcoin might hit its peak during this cycle and how much growth could still be in store.
The launch and soaring institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have surpassed expectations, introducing a fresh wave of investors to the cryptocurrency market.
According to the report, this cycle stands out as unique, with the involvement of ETF investors and growing confidence in the crypto sector pushing Bitcoin to an all-time high (ATH) even before the anticipated halving event. Traditionally, BTC sees its ATH 5–7 months post-halving, but this cycle has shown a deviation from the norm.
Additionally, optimism surrounding a potential crypto-friendly U.S. administration has further fueled market sentiment. The post-election surge contributed to a significant expansion in the crypto market, which has grown 130% year-to-date (YTD) to $3.69 trillion, marking a 70% increase this quarter alone.
The data reveals that Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable 573% rise since its low of $15,487 in 2022. This growth has been bolstered by major industry developments, leading to a 130% YTD increase in Bitcoin’s price. Earlier this month, Bitcoin shattered the $100,000 milestone, achieving a new ATH of $110,000.
Historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s current cycle is still in its middle stages. Bitfinex predicts that BTC could continue climbing in 2025, with multiple key levels yet to be reached. Typically, Bitcoin peaks around 450 days after a halving event, placing the next potential high in Q3 or Q4 of 2025. Indicators like MVRV, NUPL, and the Bull-Bear market gauge affirm that the market remains in a bullish phase but is far from euphoric peaks.
The report also highlights the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, which has historically pinpointed Bitcoin’s cycle highs with remarkable accuracy, often within three days. Based on this indicator and previous cycles, Bitcoin’s peak could occur between mid-2025 and early 2026.
If Bitcoin follows its 2021 cycle trajectory, it might rise another 40%, potentially reaching $339,000 by June or July 2025. However, the research notes that Bitcoin has demonstrated diminishing returns in subsequent cycles.
This suggests that Bitcoin’s growth in the current cycle may be more modest, with the cryptocurrency likely rising 15%–20% to a range of $160,000–$200,000. If the 2017 cycle serves as a model, Bitcoin could climb further into early 2026, possibly peaking at $229,000 before experiencing tapering profits.
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