When a new token launches on Binance or any major exchange, it can be tempting to jump in immediately. However, making informed decisions is key to avoiding unnecessary risks and losses. Follow this step-by-step strategy to evaluate a coin before you decide to trade or invest:
1. Research the Pre-launch Sale:
Start by checking if the token held any Initial Coin Offering (ICO), presale, or private sale. If it did, identify the presale price and compare it with the expected listing price. Tokens that already gained massive traction before launch often see early investors sell their holdings quickly to lock in profits.
2. Understand the Supply Dynamics:
Find out the total supply of the token and its circulating supply at launch. Total supply represents the maximum number of tokens that will ever exist, while circulating supply reflects how many are currently available to trade. A high circulating supply relative to demand may apply downward pressure on price.
3. Identify the Project’s Niche:
Determine the project’s focus. Is it part of trending narratives like Artificial Intelligence (AI), gaming, Layer 1 or Layer 2 solutions, metaverse, DeFi, or another niche? Projects tied to current hype cycles may experience initial surges but could lose momentum once attention shifts.
4. Analyze the Price Launch Gap:
Once the token goes live, compare the launch price with the ICO or presale price. If the price has skyrocketed far above the presale value, it indicates a high likelihood that early investors or airdrop participants will start selling off their tokens for profit.
5. Assess Market Capitalization:
Look at the coin’s market cap at launch. If it’s exceptionally high—let’s say above $300 million to $400 million—it signals limited growth potential in the short term. Coins that launch with bloated valuations often attract sellers rather than buyers, causing rapid corrections.
6. Avoid Overvalued Entries:
Make sure the token’s price remains reasonable compared to its ICO valuation. Ideally, the market cap should stay below $400 million. If the price climbs too far too fast, it becomes risky, as heavy selling pressure can lead to sharp drops.
7. Check for Existing Trading Activity:
Find out whether the token is newly launched or has been trading on other exchanges. Coins that have already been trading may have established price patterns, reducing the uncertainty of initial volatility.
8. Investigate Airdrops or Incentives:
Determine if the project distributed free tokens through airdrops or promotional events. Airdrop recipients often sell their tokens as soon as trading opens, causing a flood of sell orders and dragging prices lower.
Final Thought: Should You Buy Right Away?
My advice: Avoid chasing the coin immediately after launch. Here’s why:
Newly launched tokens are highly volatile and often overvalued due to hype and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).
Watch the price action for at least a few hours or even days. Allow the market to stabilize and for a base price to form.
Buying at an inflated price could lead to heavy losses as early investors offload their holdings.
Instead, be patient, observe market behavior, and wait for a clear trend or solid entry point. Making a calculated decision will give you a far better chance of profiting in the long run.
In trading, patience is more rewarding than impulsive decisions. Happy trading.