You should never think of the market in absolutes.

You can never be 100% certain of any outcome.

Your positioning should be dictated by probabilities (+EV or -EV).

So let's lay out the pros and cons for $BTC right now, then you decide whether you're bullish at $97k or not.

Pros (bullish):

• December is historically best month in election years

• For the S&P, no month is more likely to be higher than December in an election year (83.3%)

• Equities still making new highs

• Trump inauguration on Jan 20th

• Lots of sidelined capital still waiting for an entry (from both the institutional and the retail side)

• #Bitcoin compressed for 8 months in a tight range, now in an expansion phase

• We're still generally following past cycles, and are now entering the most aggressive expansionary phase

Cons (bearish):

• 100k psychological resistance

• What's the next catalyst after Trump's inauguration? Do we see short-term "sell the news?"

• We've been on an extended run - due for a cool down?

• Due to risk assets at ATHs, if there's any negative events (geopolitical etc.), there's more room to retrace

Overall I think the pros outweigh the cons, but this doesn't mean there is

a 100% certainty of upside. Whenever you take a trade you're weighing up both sides and taking a probabilistic bet on directionality.