Altcoin season—a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin in terms of price gains—is influenced by multiple market factors. Predicting its exact start requires analyzing historical patterns and current market dynamics.
Indicators of an Upcoming Altcoin Season:
1. Bitcoin Dominance Decreasing:
Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin's market cap relative to the total crypto market cap. A significant drop in dominance (e.g., below 40%) often signals an altcoin season as investors shift focus to altcoins.
2. Altcoin Market Capitalization Growth:
When the total market cap of altcoins grows significantly faster than Bitcoin's, this suggests rising interest and liquidity in altcoins.
3. Post-Bitcoin Bull Run Behavior:
Altcoin seasons typically follow a Bitcoin bull run. Historically, when Bitcoin stabilizes or slightly retraces after hitting new highs, capital often flows into altcoins.
4. Emerging Trends:
Specific trends, such as the rise of new sectors (e.g., AI tokens, decentralized finance, gaming tokens, or NFTs), can trigger altcoin seasons.
5. Halving Effects:
The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 could drive Bitcoin prices higher initially. If Bitcoin dominance peaks post-halving, an altcoin season may follow in the months after, likely late 2024 or early 2025.
Timing Prediction for 2024
Based on historical cycles:
Late 2024 to Early 2025: After the Bitcoin halving and potential bull run, a rotation into altcoins could occur as investors seek higher returns.
Mid-2024: If Bitcoin stabilizes after halving and investors start exploring undervalued altcoins, mini-altcoin seasons may happen earlier.
Current Market Sentiment
The crypto market is preparing for significant movement due to the halving event, and altcoins could see notable gains once Bitcoin's dominance wanes. However, timing depends on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and investor sentiment.