The growing global money supply and a potential decline in the United States dollar could fuel a Bitcoin bull rally in 2025, as analysts expect to see an over six-figure valuation.
Bitcoin (BTC) was just $200 or 0.2% short from crossing the $100,000 all-time high on Nov. 22 before experiencing an over 7% correction — which could see Bitcoin retrace up to 30%, according to some analysts.
However, the growing global money supply and a potential price reversal in the US Dollar Index (DXY) will set up Bitcoin’s 2025 rally, according to Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, who wrote in a Nov. 27 X post:
“DXY could have topped here. The lag effect that Fintwit is focused on atm is still real, but ultimately, the Fed is waving the bull flag for risk assets again. Bullish 2025.”
US Dollar Index, DXY, 2-year chart. Source: Jamie Coutts
Coutts previously called the M2 money supply — an estimate of all cash and short-term bank deposits across the US — the key to the next Bitcoin rally due to its historic correlation with Bitcoin price.
BTC/USD, May to November, since M2 turned positive. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
At the beginning of May, the M2 money supply turned positive year-over-year for the first time since November 2023, prompting investors to start looking for hedges against inflation, such as Bitcoin, which has surged by 58% since the money supply flipped positive.
Bitcoin to breach $132,000 in 2025 on growing global M2 supply
Bitcoin could also benefit from the growth of the global M2 supply, which is projected to increase due to incoming liquidity injection from the US Federal Reserve.
Due to liquidity concerns, the Fed could increase the global money supply to over $127 trillion during 2025, up from the current $107 trillion, marking a potential 18% increase.
BTC projection to $132,000 on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jammie Coutts
The growing money supply could see Bitcoin price rise to over $132,000 during next year, according to the above chart shared by Coutts, who added:
“Longer term, this is where I am at for this cycle; a 12-month forecast based on linear relationship with liquidity. But Bitcoin cycles are not linear. I think we go much higher than this.”
DXY resistance, 2-year chart. Source: Jamie Coutts
However, Coutts noted that the DXY is currently at a significant resistance level. A potential break above would “not be good for risk assets,” added the analyst.
Trump’s victory to drive Bitcoin’s 2025 rally, beyond just DXY
Weakness in the US dollar is not the only major factor influencing Bitcoin price, which received a substantial boost from Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 US presidential election.
Trump’s victory inspired a new wave of risk appetite, expected to bolster the 2025 crypto rally, Bitfinex analysts told Cointelegraph:
“We expect all crypto assets however to continue to make new highs into the new year once the Trump administration takes over and the industry benefits from an increasingly supportive regulatory environment.”
Bitcoin could also benefit from MicroStrategy’s continued Bitcoin buying after the firm’s latest $3 billion raise, which will be used to acquire more BTC, the analysts added:
“MicroStrategy has only completed 29% of its 12/21 plan to purchase over $40b worth of Bitcoin.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is nearing one million daily active addresses for the first time since 2019, flashing another positive adoption sign for the world’s first cryptocurrency that could contribute to more upward momentum.
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