Here is a summary of the key points from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of November 6-7, 2024:
Economic Overview
GDP and Inflation:
Real GDP showed solid growth supported by consumer spending and business investments.
Inflation has eased, with core inflation at 2.7% (as of September), though it remains slightly elevated compared to the 2% target.
Labor Market:
Labor market conditions are solid but easing gradually. Unemployment is at 4.1%, with wage growth moderating.
Job vacancies have decreased, and businesses report more selective hiring practices.
Monetary Policy Decisions
The FOMC decided to lower the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5%-4.75%.
The committee reaffirmed its commitment to the 2% inflation target while supporting maximum employment.
Balance sheet reduction will continue, including monthly caps on Treasury securities and agency debt rollovers.
Key Observations
Market Conditions:
Treasury yields rose due to stronger-than-expected economic data and a cautious approach to monetary policy easing.
Equity markets showed confidence, with broad indexes rising despite initial election-related volatility.
Consumer and Business Sentiment:
Consumer spending remained robust due to real wage growth and household wealth.
Businesses reported favorable supply developments but voiced concerns about productivity trends and cost pressures in the agricultural sector.
Credit and Lending:
Lending standards remained tight, especially for small businesses and consumer loans. Mortgage and auto loan rates stayed elevated.
Commercial real estate (CRE) markets continued to show stress, particularly in the office sector.
Economic activity is expected to remain solid in the near term, with GDP growth moderating slightly below potential output in the medium term.
Inflation is projected to decline to 2% by 2026 as supply-demand imbalances normalize.
Risks to inflation and employment are considered balanced, though geopolitical tensions, financial conditions, and consumer credit strains remain concerns.