I haven’t posted any detailed analyses over the past few days, not for any particular reason, but simply to avoid stirring emotions unnecessarily. I’ve come to understand why my perspectives are rarely well-received; in this space, going against the crowd often invites criticism. When the market leans bearish, I suggest buying at the bottom, and when the sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, I point out the top and suggest caution. This approach, though essential, often makes me unpopular, and I’ve accepted that. Seeking approval has lost its importance to me.
On the 29th, I indicated that changes were coming by the 31st. On the 4th, I encouraged you not to be pessimistic, saying that optimism was warranted and the market would see gains. Yet, negative reactions for the sake of negativity continue. I’ve avoided daily analyses lately because they often go unseen or are criticized unnecessarily. Additionally, writing daily updates that include both bullish and bearish strategies can lead to confusion, especially among those who use short-term patterns. If these patterns break, they blame my analysis. High-leverage trades have also contributed to this hesitation.
Looking forward, I may only write key reminders before significant turning points. Whether or not you choose to read them is up to you, but I’ll be here if you find value in what I share. A quick note: the market has been anticipating a rate cut of at least 25% by November, which is largely priced in. The main question now is whether the cut will be 25% or 50% on the 8th, influencing how long the FOMO phase can last.
The story of 2024 will likely conclude with the end of these rate cuts. Whether you choose to ride the final wave or not, make sure to set proper stop losses. If you’re in profit, consider positioning your stop loss below the most recent solid 4-hour close. If you fear being stopped out, adjust it below the last solid daily close. Without a stop loss, those caught at the peak could be waiting until next year to break even.
You might be optimistic that there will be continuous FOMO until January, prior to significant national developments, and I understand that viewpoint. However, I can’t be accountable for your trading decisions. While I can’t pinpoint when the FOMO will end, a bearish engulfing pattern on a higher timeframe is usually a signal to exit. I hope that when that time comes, you’re not left holding the last baton.
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