What are the real costs of mining one bitcoin? A new report from Coinshares reveals some interesting insights, highlighting the increasing difficulty of mining and its potential impact on miners.

Halving and Increasing Mining Difficulty

Bitcoin halving events regularly bring significant changes, and this year is especially notable due to a dramatic rise in mining difficulty. This can reduce profitability, causing many miners to shut down operations due to unbalanced costs and revenue.

As mining difficulty increases, so do production costs. Coinshares estimates that the current cost of mining one bitcoin is now $49,500, making it increasingly inaccessible for smaller miners. This trend could lead to more centralized mining, as only large institutions may be able to keep up with rising costs.

Declining Miner Reserves: A Sign of Uncertainty

Bitcoin miner reserves have an interesting relationship with BTC’s price and overall market sentiment. Miner reserves tend to grow when miners expect price increases and fall when market confidence drops.

October was a bullish month for bitcoin, which led to a rise in miner reserves, reaching a four-week high of 1.815 million BTC on October 26. Since then, however, reserves have declined to 1.811 million BTC. This difference amounts to around 40,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $2.6 million in today’s market value. Changes in miner reserves thus have a significant impact on BTC price action.

Bitcoin miner reserves | Source: CryptoQuant

The main reason for the drop in reserves has been growing uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections. Miners have been willing to hold onto their bitcoins, anticipating higher prices.

Can Bitcoin Return to the $60,000 Range?

Recently, it seemed like bitcoin was heading for new price highs. However, growing uncertainty has brought prices down. At the time of writing, BTC’s price has fallen to $67,208.

Bitcoin has been in the red for six consecutive days, reflecting high selling pressure. Continued uncertainty could lead to further declines. Fibonacci retracement indicates that BTC’s price could bottom out between $60,500 and $63,100 in the current trend.

Bitcoin price action | Source: TradingView

This forecast is based on BTC’s lowest price in September, which kicked off the latest upward trend, and the recent peak at the end of October. The current BTC price at the time of writing is $67,829, marking a 6.92% drop from the Fibonacci accumulation range.

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