Bitcoin, and those who mine it, are facing an existential threat that could erode the very ethos of the cryptocurrency.
In the wake of Bitcoin’s April halving, which slashed rewards in half, mining giants sparked a wave of consolidation by scooping up smaller rivals.
It’s a worrying trend. Bitcoin, unlike, say, the US dollar, isn’t controlled by any single entity like a corporation, bank, or government, but rather by a vast network of computers.
With every mining deal, Bitcoin loses, little by little, a bit more of its decentralised make-up.
Andy Fajar Handika, co-founder and CEO of Loka Mining, is one of several players focusing on a novel solution.
His company is rolling out a decentralised futures market for small firms to sell their hashrate — a measure of how many calculations a computer designed to mine Bitcoin can perform per second.
How it works
“The idea is simple,” he told DL News. “If you’re a corn farmer, you can sell your future harvest — you can start a forward contract in a commodity market, right? So it’s the same idea, but for Bitcoin miners.”
The hope is that the market will help small miners weather Bitcoin’s notorious volatility and avoid going bust and getting gobbled up by bigger miners.
Luxor Technology, a Bitcoin miner services provider, already runs a hashrate futures market. Crypto exchange Bitnomial lets its users dabble in hashrate futures trading.
Hashrate futures markets could help Bitcoin miners by offering new ways to optimise revenue and better manage their operational costs, James Butterfill, Head of Research at digital asset manager CoinShares, told DL News.
That could be a lifeline, especially when Bitcoin mining rewards get slashed during halving events every four years. Bitcoin’s April halving kneecapped many small miners who were no longer able to turn a profit.
The end goal, says Handika, is to give small miners a “fighting chance” and keep Bitcoin as decentralised as possible.
Bitcoin’s mysterious founder Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned the blockchain as a decentralised system in his 2008 white paper.
Hashrate market boom
Hashrate markets are a straightforward idea. Just like any other exchange, they charge small fees for matching buyers and sellers.
With some analysts predicting Bitcoin will hit $200,000 next year, hashrate markets could become very lucrative.
As a Bitcoin derivative, hashrate futures are appealing to investors engaging in complex trading strategies.
“Hashrate futures markets allow for precise hedging of hashrate in the Bitcoin network, which is crucial for miners to manage as hashrate comes online or goes offline over time,” Michael Dunn, President of Bitnomial, told DL News.
And it’s a sign that the industry is maturing, said Taras Kulyk, CEO of Bitcoin miner hardware provider Synteq.
“Providing them with various investment instruments so that they’re able to manage their risk accordingly will only drive increased participation,” Kulyk told DL News.
Risks and costs
The stability miners get from selling their hashrate comes at a cost, though. They forfeit any extra Bitcoin they might make on their hashrate during the contract period, which goes to the investor who bought the contract.
This is great for those looking to buy Bitcoin at a discounted price. But it comes with additional risks.
Loka has chosen to build a decentralised and permissionless market using smart contracts, as opposed to centrally managed markets like those run by Luxor and Bitnomial.
It’s a first-of-its-kind technical feat, and a lot could go wrong.
Due to its open-source nature, it’s not uncommon for the code backing crypto projects to get exploited by bad actors — especially if it’s new and untested.
While code-based exploits have decreased, protocols still lose millions each month to them, per DefiLlama data.
Controversial project
Perhaps the biggest risk is Loka’s decision to build on the Internet Computer Protocol — or ICP — a highly controversial project.
Handika said his firm previously tried to build on Stacks, a so-called Bitcoin layer 2 network, before switching.
“On the technology side, I think ICP is superior,” he said.
It’s not without controversy. In 2021, the project’s ICP token, which peaked at a market value of $18.5 billion, crashed 95% and left investors in the lurch.
The crash was caused by insiders sending billions of dollars of ICP tokens to exchanges and cashing out, according to an analysis by Arkham Intelligence, a crypto data platform.
The Dfinity Foundation, the nonprofit behind ICP, said in a statement at the time that bad actors on social media were to blame.
“There’s always a trade off in everything,” Handika said.
He countered that users of the hashrate marketplace don’t need to hold or use the ICP token, and probably won’t even realise they’re using the network.
Still, the connection to ICP could be off-putting, especially for those who got burned investing in the ICP token.
Loka’s hashrate marketplace is set to launch before the end of the year.
Tim Craig is DL News’ Edinburgh-based DeFi Correspondent. Reach out with tips at tim@dlnews.com.
