October Week 4 Summary - Frustrating Movements Continue"
We've left behind a week where BTC couldn't break its resistance and ETH fell as if there was no tomorrow. We're starting the week with another green candle, but let's see what the outcome will be? You can check out my article at this link to review last week's expectations and possibilities.
Bitcoin
Although it's making Higher Lows and Higher Highs, it's affecting the rest of the market more significantly. While the price not going down appears bullish, lingering under resistance for so long doesn't look pleasant either. However, like many others, I also think it will test the 70k area again.
In BTC, I mentioned last week that staying below 68k wouldn't be good. Subsequently, it dropped below 68k with a high-volume candle and then pulled back to 65k. The reaction from 65k was good, and it still hasn't broken that low. Frankly, if it goes from here to test 70k again and fails, I won't be very hopeful. However, I don't think we'll enter the US Elections at either a very low or very high price. I expect it to be at a price where people will be uncertain about whether it's going up or down. This week's implied volatility range is between 60.5k and 75.5k.
Since this month lasted about 4.5 weeks, I based it on the contract until November 1. While calls are dominant in these contracts, they don't have a very high percentage. Beyond that, the pricing and outlook for November 29 is much more positive. The Put/Call Ratio for November 29 is 0.59, and Call contracts are accumulated at the 80k price. As I said last week for November, it would make more sense to buy from these dates as we might see increases in pricing as US elections approach.
Ethereum
We saw last week why the Put/Call Ratio in ETH has been between 0.9-1 since the beginning of the month. While BTC's decline remained minimal, ETH shook the market with a drop of more than 13%. We experienced firsthand why there were more downside contracts compared to BTC and why put and call contracts were so equal.
Although the price here also progresses with HH and HL, it has much lower momentum, and the lows are very close to each other. I think we shouldn't be too hopeful unless it breaks above 2800 and stays above 2900 permanently. The sharp break below the designated support in ETHBTC doesn't look good either; BTC will continue to dominate the market during this period. This week's implied volatility range is between 2200-2800.
For November 1, ETH has high amounts of put contracts at 2400 and call contracts at 2650 and 2900. While the Put/Call Ratio for November 29 appears to be 0.7, call contracts are concentrated at 2900 and 3000. It might make sense to buy upside contracts on BTC and downside ones on ETH.
ETHBTC
As I showed on the chart, I'm not thinking of taking an upside position until either it moves above 0.042 or comes down to the 0.03 region. The price broke the support area with high volume and sharply, and I don't think the intermediate supports will work well enough to turn the price around. I'll plan my positions as indicated until the price reaches one of my desired levels. Yes, maybe this could be the deviation of the downward channel, and I might miss its rise toward the purple box, but I'll have taken a safer trade.
In conclusion, I'm thinking of writing about a position we can take for November 8 at the beginning of the month. I think the price will be in a range and will make many people question whether we're going up or down. Therefore, while I don't expect very sharp movements this week, I think this level in BTC is the 70k region.
Good week to everyone, hoping for better days as we enter a new month.
#CryptoPreUSElection #BTC67KRebound #ETHBTCNewLow #November2024 #November
