Due to varying approaches and perspectives on data, the determination of the total supply of Bitcoin held on exchanges differs significantly between companies and on-chain analysis tools. While we’ve often heard that the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has reached its lowest level in years according to prominent analysis companies like Glassnode or CryptoQuant, CoinMetrics’ analysis seems to suggest otherwise.
Over 800k Bitcoins Added to Circulating Supply on Exchanges (CoinMetrics) Notably, in the past 24 hours, Coinglass data has shown that nearly 100,000 $BTC were moved to exchanges. However, this signal has not been confirmed by other companies or by real-time data providers. Another noteworthy piece of information is that by the end of September 2024, CoinMetrics data indicated that an additional 800,000 Bitcoin had been added to exchange wallets, yet other on-chain analysis companies did not reflect this change.
More than 90 thousand Bitcoins moved to exchanges (Coinglass) This data discrepancy is quite concerning because it raises questions about the honesty or actual capabilities of the companies providing on-chain data to the market: Is there data manipulation, or do they truly have the capacity to provide accurate data?
Although blockchain is highly transparent, it’s also complex enough to conceal manipulative behavior or significant shifts from most of us who lack the resources and ability to track and analyze the dense on-chain data. Therefore, we shouldn’t place blind trust in data from these providers, and we should cross-check and follow data from multiple sources.
Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges (Cryptoquant) If anyone recalls the crash in early April 2021 when Bitcoin dropped 50% within a week from $60,000 to $30,000, I also noticed a similar data discrepancy between exchanges, where over 150,000 Bitcoin were moved to exchanges according to Coinglass, but other companies didn’t register any movement. The same happened in late July 2021 when Bitcoin resumed its upward trend from $30,000 to a new ATH at $69,000.
Therefore, my experience shows that a significant data discrepancy in the circulating supply of Bitcoin on exchanges often precedes a major market event. I can’t be sure if it will be an upward or downward movement, but I am confident that we are likely to see Bitcoin’s price break out of its current trajectory, either dropping below $50,000 or hitting a new ATH, with a bull run beginning. Naturally, I lean towards the scenario of a bull run, as large investors start moving Bitcoin to exchanges, driving up the price and distributing afterward (because once the price is high, moving a large amount of Bitcoin to exchanges will cause concern). Whichever scenario occurs, we need a plan for all contingencies!