Bitcoin (BTC) entered another period of price turbulence ahead of the weekend, after briefly dipping under $59,000. The upcoming options expiry for 18,000 BTC may affect the market scenarios in the last hours before the deadline.
On October 11, options for 18,000 BTC are expiring, setting up the market for turbulence ahead of the weekend. The put-call ratio is at 0.91, presenting a more balanced outlook. Options at some price ranges may be unbalanced, depending on the exchange. Deribit remains the largest market for options, setting expectations for BTC.
For BTC options, max pain levels sit at $62,000, the level that was abandoned in the past week. The options expiry may signal a turn of the tide as BTC attempts another rally. The options market remains sluggish compared to 2023, after a weak start to the last quarter of the year.
BTC options expiry maximum pain is at $62,000. | Source: Binance
The $60,000 level also drew in peak options interest, with puts exceeding calls. Deribit also hosts the $100,000 strike price option, which is not in play now, but sets up an expectation for new highs.
In the short term, there were expectations the volatility and market slide would stop after the options expiry. Open interest for BTC also decreased to its lowest weekly levels after the most recent round of liquidations, extending the subdued start of Q4. The current trading behavior led the fear and greed index down to 37 points, in the range of ‘fear’. Recent spot market activity also dampened the market, leading even long-term whales to panic-sell.
The options market remains a factor in price action, in addition to sweeping leveraged positions. The current options expiry with a notional value of $1.1B is within the ordinary range. BTC has also stagnated more, with the volatility index falling to 1.67%.
Ethereum (ETH) options have a max pain level at $2,400, just where the spot ETH price sits. The Ethereum options have a notional value of $510M on all exchanges, and represent a smaller pressure factor compared to BTC.
The recent options expiry and the sweeping of leveraged positions is seen as one last stop before BTC re-attempts a higher price range. However, this week’s open interest is still relatively low and far from the usual levels at the end of each month.
Outside BTC and ETH, Ripple’s XRP is close to its max pain price of $0.53. Binance Coin (BNB) trading is also close to max pain level of $560, with the price still not budging. During options expiry days, there may be market activity to move the price away from maximum pain levels.
BTC remains choppy, may reach quarterly lows soon
BTC may remain choppy in the next few weeks. The leading coin is now at the final stretch before the US elections, which may be one of the biggest triggers for a year-end rally. The current price levels set up expectations that this quarter’s lows may be near.
The recent dip to $59,800 preceded a fast recovery, where BTC rallied to $60,813.78. BTC remains the most active gainer, while ETH and other blue chip assets remained within a tight range.
BTC is at a crossroads, with new liquidity accrued for both long and short positions. In the current price range, scenarios include a sweep down to the $59,000 level, or an attack against short positions under $62,000. BTC spot trading also remains relatively slow in the first weeks of Q4, with volumes down to $30B in 24 hours.
Sentiment for BTC remains fearful when coming from retail, and cautiously bullish from smart money. BTC recently touched a three-week low, and managed to prove it could bounce above $60,000 within hours. BTC whales turned into active sellers after weeks of accumulation, shedding 30,000 BTC in the last few hours, equivalent to $1.83B.
ETH and BTC also showed the fastest shift in sentiment, with negative expectations in the past few days. Bearish crowd sentiment often translates into rallies, especially if whales and smart money return. Spot buyers may also reappear, especially after market makers deposit stablecoins to exchanges and Binance increases the supply of FDUSD.
