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Understanding crypto
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How long will the
alt
season last?
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content.
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Check out this MVRV chart. MV is the market value for all btc in circulation. Essentially the market cap. RV is the realized value. Essentially an average for all btc purchases or the average cost basis. So this chart shows us the relationship between the market value and the realized value. Historically, the tops come in when the MVRV is at about 3.5 or above 3. From the chart, one could draw the conclusion that when the MVRV is at or above the market price starting from 2018, we just top out. (Like start a mega drop into bear market). So far, it shows that we still have a long journey ahead before that!
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So after this analysis, I’m thinking we will end up at $57k on btc. So after this analysis, I’m thinking we will end up at $57k on btc.
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US Federal interest rate cut decision is to be expected today 6hours and 33minutes from now. If they cut by 25, 50 or 70bps it will be bullish. (I’m thinking 25). But if they don’t cut then.. welp! Volatility is on the way with this though so be prepare
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I haven't sent any daily or intraday forecasts lately because BTC is not trading in my ideal type formations. It's just slowly trending downwards in a bullish divergence. Divergences usually bring about a violent reversal but the problem here is i don't have any signal for a reversal nor continuation to the downside. Our last video showed where it could bottom if we just continue down but that's MACRO! but as we zoom in, i don't have the right signals to see it's projection. So what i'm i doing now? well, I'm accumulating low leverage longs. This is of course risky because we could go down forever but it's just what i'm doing given that on the macro, i believe there's a rally coming. If we do rally into the rate cuts however, I will be taking profits.
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Welcome to September ladies and gentlemen. Arguably the worst month in crypto. We will update on the markets tomorrow as we get the weekly candle close today. We got last September’s forecast right as predicted a more stable month than a crash. We’ll see for this one tomorrow. Subscribe to understanding crypto over on YT.
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