📈 Bitcoin's Price Rally to $61K: Why Derivatives Traders Remain Skeptical
Bitcoin recently surged to $61K, breaking above $61,000 for the first time in 3 weeks. However, derivatives data suggests traders aren't convinced the rally will last. Here's why: 👇
1. Market Context
• BTC price jumped 6.4% in under 12 hours on Sept 17
• Mirrors S&P 500 reaching all-time high
• Comes ahead of key Fed decision on Sept 18
2. Economic Factors
• US retail sales up 0.1% in August
• Industrial production grew 0.8%
• 63% probability of 0.50% interest rate cut priced in
3. Derivatives Data Shows Caution
• BTC futures premium at 6% (neutral is 5-10%)
• Options skew near 2% (neutral sentiment)
• Indicates lack of conviction despite price move
4. Weak Stablecoins Demand in China
• Tether trading at 0.3% discount since Sept 9
• Suggests investors cashing out
5. Trader Sentiment
• Hesitant to add positions pre-Fed decision
• Skeptical bullish momentum will continue
• Derivatives show modest apathy overall
While Bitcoin's price is up, underlying metrics and trader behavior paint a more cautious picture. The upcoming Fed decision looms large for market direction.
Do you think Bitcoin will fall back to $50K or rally after the Fed rate cut decision?
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