𝐓𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐚𝐲, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐥, 𝐚𝐬 𝐰𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐞 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐥𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬.
There’s a lot of confusion about how a rate cut will impact BTC, so I did my own research, and here’s what I believe:
- 25 𝘽𝙋𝙎: Expect the market to dump. Why? Because the market has already priced in a 25bps cut, so it won’t pump immediately. However, we could see a real pump later on.
- 50 𝘽𝙋𝙎: The market should pump after a 50bps cut, but this isn’t great news. We could see a huge dump afterward. Why? Because if the Fed is cutting by 50bps, it signals that there’s something really wrong with the economy that we aren’t aware of yet.
- 75 𝘽𝙋𝙎: Disaster! While the market may pump a lot after a 75bps cut, think about it—how bad is the economy if the Fed feels the need to cut by 75bps?
- 0 𝘽𝙋𝙎: Dump! If the Fed doesn’t cut rates at all, the market will likely dump because a 25bps cut was already priced in, and it will retrace to previous levels.
While these scenarios may or may not play out, this is based on my research. Personally, I’m expecting either a 25bps or 50bps cut. Let’s see if there are any surprises today. Whatever happens, this will shape the market structure for the next few months.