Bitcoin’s price may not look exciting this month, but the network’s total hash rate has returned to logging regular new all-time highs.
The divergence between security and price is a sign that Bitcoin mining firms are happy to continue installing new computer hardware, even amid uncertain business/ market conditions.
Bitcoin’s Unrelenting Hash Rate
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, miner revenue has declined substantially since Bitcoin’s price reached its all-time high in March.
While largely due to the falling price of BTC and the Bitcoin halving in March crushing rewards from Bitcoin’s block subsidy, it’s also due to Bitcoin transaction fee revenue sinking into the gutter.
Nevertheless, hash rate still tapped a new high of 693 exahashes per second (EH/s) on Sunday, keeping competition high in a low revenue environment. “Presently, the average required number of hashes to mine a block is 338,000 exahash,” Glassnode wrote.
What’s more, while this would normally incite Bitcoin mining firms to start selling their BTC to cover their costs, on-chain data suggests they’ve adopted a buy-and-hold strategy.
“Miners tend to be pro-cyclical, being sellers during drawdowns and HODLers during uptrends,” analysts continued. “The uptick in hash rate and difficulty represents an increasingly expensive production cost for BTC, which may adversely affect miner profitability in the near future.”
Marathon Digital – the largest publicly traded mining firm – has publicly confirmed that it’s now devoted to HODLing as much BTC as possible. It’s also using convertible debt to purchase more BTC much like the Bitcoin development company MicroStrategy, suggesting increased confidence in immediate BTC investment over the mining business itself.
Will Bitcoin’s Price Recover For Miners?
On one hand, some of Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics don’t look great for its price: Bitcoin’s net settlement volume has declined toward its yearly average, and its monthly centralized exchange trading volume has fallen well below they yearly average. In others words: less trading, less speculation, and less demand for BTC.
On the other, several popular investors including Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believe Bitcoin is due to bounce back when September ends.
According to Hougan, September is seasonally slow for Bitcoin and stocks broadly, while October and November are some of the asset’s best months on average. “My base case remains that we see a significant rally as this uncertainty starts to dissipate in October and November,” Hougan said on Monday.
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