A popular cryptocurrency analyst doubts that Bitcoin dominance will return to the levels it reached in December 2020, before the asset's price surged approximately 220% within three months.
“I don’t think it is going back up to 70%, my target for Bitcoin dominance has been 60%,” Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen explained in an interview with David Lin on Aug. 17.
Analyst skeptical of Bitcoin dominance returning to previous cycle highs
Cowen explained that during “major altcoin seasons,” such as the one in 2021, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance — the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the entire crypto market — tends to decline but “slowly” returns to its previous level after "the breakdown." However, this cycle, he is more confident that even at Bitcoin's peak, it won't attract the same level of dominance seen in the past.
“I think there is room for Ethereum and many other cryptocurrencies,” Cowen added.
Cowen believes that Bitcoin dwill “make that final move” towards 60% as early as September or as late as December.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin dominance is 57.36%, up 4.25% since July 18, according to TradingView data.
Though pseudonymous crypto trader Kaleo recently told their 643,700 X followers that Bitcoin dominance may have already peaked.
“I feel fairly confident this is the cycle top for Bitcoin Dominance,” Kaleo stated in an Aug. 9 X post when Bitcoin dominance was around 57.50%.
“Didn't quite hit the 60% I was expecting - which is a good thing because that would have been painful,” they added. Kaleo believes that "the real" alt season begins when Bitcoin dominance falls below 50%
Traders often look for signs that Bitcoin dominance is peaking as a signal to sell Bitcoin and shift capital into alternative assets, such as altcoins.
Bitcoin dominance playing field is different this cycle
In December 2020, Bitcoin dominance reached 70.23% before its price surged around 220% to $61,283 in March 2021, just four months later, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Cowen noted that Bitcoin dominance is "trickier" in 2024 compared to 2019, when it peaked slightly above 71%, because the stablecoin market capitalization was significantly lower back then.
Related: Bitcoin price bounces 4% as triple ‘death cross’ sparks sub-$50K warning
Cowen recommends combining Bitcoin dominance with crypto stablecoin Tether (USDT) dominance to calculate your “flight to safety dominance.”
In the Aug. 17 interview, he explained that the combined figure is about 63%, similar to the level in June 2019, before the United States Federal Reserve cut interest rates.
At the time of publication, the combined dominance of USDT and Bitcoin is 63.07%.
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