Why Trump Trails Harris on Crypto Platform Polymarket

Polymarket, a major decentralized crypto prediction market platform using blockchain technology, has changed the odds for the US presidential election. 52% of market participants now see Kamala Harris as the probable victor, compared to 45% for Donald Trump, a major shift from past patterns that supported Trump. When Harris declared her candidacy, chances were 33%.

At Polymarket, a crypto platform?

Nick Tomaino, founder of crypto startup fund 1confirmation, analyzed these movements. Tomaino explains prediction markets on X, highlighting their ability to gather varied perspectives from financially engaged stakeholders. He said, “Prediction markets reflect the aggregate view of many with skin in the game.”


Tomaino explains that the prediction market can tolerate significant financial inflows to influence opinions. “If Arabella wanted to put the entire $1.2 billion they spent in 2020 to make it look like Kamala won 95%, sophisticated market makers would quickly absorb that liquidity to reflect the true market price,” he said.

Tomaino emphasizes market systems' efficacy in sustaining equilibrium and expressing a common opinion that defies manipulation. Polymarket makes all crypto transactions transparent and traceable, preventing anonymous manipulation.


Tomaino said that although large funds might temporarily skew estimates, the market's self-correcting processes are fast and effective. “A few million can temporarily become 55. He stressed that market makers would swiftly return it to market pricing if that occurs.


Another user distinguished subtle vs overpowering manipulation beliefs. He said “95% would look like a scam; 52% would look like a sentiment shift.”

Tomaino said: “I used $1.2B as the most extreme example. Manipulation to 52% makes it simpler for market makers to absorb liquidity and restore genuine number.

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