There are three narratives making waves in crypto right now:
1️⃣ $ETH is dying
2⃣ $BTC FOMO by institutions
3⃣ $XRP settled with the SEC
Let's dissect them one by one. An XL thread
When both Bitcoin and Solana outperform Ethereum, you got to ask yourself some serious questions. ETH maxis and devs are already throwing the towel. What is going on here? I may have an answer to this puzzling conundrum by the end of a thread. Next.
Ethereum is now suffering from the XLM curse. WTF is that? If your network is fast & cheap, there is no reason for your token to pump. Did you know it now costs 100x less to transact on ETH L2s like Arbitrum vs last year? That's NOT bullish for ETH's price! See why next.
Remember ultrasound money? Demand for ETH is so LOW that they have to literally print tokens from thin air again. ETH inflation is now positive in order to cover costs because fees don't cut it anymore. They are not enough! This adds more sell side pressures too. Next.
Why is this happening? Because Vitalik decided to scale ETH via L2s and made it extremely cheap in terms of fees. But there is a problem. You see, ETH is like oil, and now everyone is moving to an electric car. 🤣
What's the point of Ethereum then?
As a network it will do just fine and thrive, but if they scale away from ETH as a gas token, its price will crash.Who want's to pay $10 for an ETH transaction, right? The token relevance will fall, and so will its price. So Solana is also cheap, fast and pumped?!
Solana is not cheap, it costs billions per year in subsidies to pay for that speed.
Just as ETH prints new tokens from nothing, Solana prints billions from nothing. SOL may crush under its own weight one day.
At least ETH is upfront about it. Next.
Competition from Solana and 10k other altcoins make ETH life harder every year.
If you reduce fees by 100x, you need demand to pump by 100x as well. But if demand goes elsewhere the downwards pressure on ETH's price is compounded!
Were L2s a mistake? But enough about ETH.
Bitcoin is the hottest narrative in crypto, in contrast to ETH.
The BTC price crashed on Monday, but institutional buyers got FOMO buying back in at a level never seen this year.
They know. When will retail wake up in this cycle?
Data shows that institutions are here. Once retail joins we will get our top.
Likely later this year or early 2025. Timing can vary based on price action, but it's coming.
Some expect a hockey stick price action. What is that?
This basically. Only if retail comes hard we will get it. And they may!
XRP just settled with the SEC and it's price pumped 30% on the news.Plus, in July, the SEC lost the case with Binance and the court said cryptocurrencies are not securities!
The stage is set for another bull run, will we get it? Make sure to sell when it happens! Next.
