The latest news confirms U.S. inflation is slowing, which would typically boost a president facing re-election. However, the good news about lower price pressures is overshadowed by doubts about Joe Biden’s capability to challenge Donald Trump after their recent TV debate.
The personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, dipped from 2.7% to 2.6%. The core figure, excluding food and fuel prices, also fell from 2.8% to 2.6%.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
This data suggests inflation is easing after months of stagnation, allowing the Fed to stay on course for at least one rate cut this year. The economy remains a critical issue as the November election approaches.
However, economists and investors worry that neither Biden nor Trump is prepared to handle significant issues like government spending effectively.
Debt and deficits
The IMF has warned that the U.S. must urgently address its high debt levels. In its annual review, the IMF predicted the debt-to-GDP ratio will hit 140% by 2032.
This follows a forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, which expects the deficit to reach $1.9 trillion this year, up from a February estimate of $1.5 trillion.
Donald J. Trump. Credits: The Trump Campaign
For U.S. voters, the economy is the top priority. According to a latest poll, voters trust Trump over Biden on economic issues, with Trump leading 41% to 37%.
Unlike economists, who focus on percentage changes, consumers judge inflation by absolute numbers, like gas prices. With these prices still high, the sitting president often gets the blame, benefiting the anti-establishment challenger.
Biden’s efforts to improve his economic messaging may not be enough to revive his campaign after the recent debate. Despite this setback, he remains determined to stay in the race.
Bitcoin’s uncertain path
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s struggles could continue through July, but investors are hopeful for the latter half of the year. The cryptocurrency has been stuck in a range between $60,000 and $70,000 since March.
This week, it fell to the lower end of that range, heading for a 10% drop in June. This would mark its worst month since April and the second down month in three.
July is usually a strong month for Bitcoin, historically finishing higher in seven of the last 11 years, according to Coinglass. At $61,000, Bitcoin faces key support at $67,000, and a breach below could be damaging.
Source: Coinglass
Investors worry about the cryptocurrency taking another downturn due to a supply overhang heading into July. This week, the crypto market was jolted when the U.S. and German governments sent large amounts of previously seized Bitcoin to exchanges.
Additionally, the trustee of the now-defunct Mt. Gox exchange announced it would begin repaying creditors – 142,000 Bitcoins worth $9 billion in today’s prices – starting in July.
Some investors are concerned that creditors may sell some of that Bitcoin after waiting more than a decade for a resolution.
Jai Hamid