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Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin Price at a 'Critical Point' — What's Happening?

Bitcoin has entered 2025 on a strong note, once again approaching the $100,000 mark on its 16th anniversary. Since falling below $100,000 on December 19, 2024, the leading cryptocurrency has struggled to regain significant bullish momentum.

Currently, Bitcoin's price appears to be in a recovery phase, with an almost 5% increase over the past week. A well-known crypto analyst on the social media platform X has highlighted that Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment.

Bitcoin Price Retests 50-Day MA — What's Next?

Prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently shared insights on Bitcoin's price trajectory on the X platform. According to Martinez, Bitcoin is at a "critical point" due to its interaction with the 50-day moving average (50MA) on the daily chart.

The 50-day MA is a widely used technical indicator for gauging the medium-term trend of an asset's price. Historically, for Bitcoin, the 50-day MA has acted as a significant support and resistance level.

From the current charts, Bitcoin's price had fallen below the 50-day MA but has now climbed back to retest this level. Martinez warns that if Bitcoin fails to hold above this moving average, it could face further downside. Conversely, a sustained close above the 50-day MA could negate the bearish outlook and potentially mark the end of the ongoing correction.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at around $98,358, showing a 1% increase in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin has gained nearly 5% over the last seven days.

Can Exchange Outflows Spark Fresh Bullish Momentum?

In another post on X, Martinez pointed out significant Bitcoin outflows from exchanges over the past week. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that more than 48,000 BTC (worth over $4.5 billion) have been withdrawn from exchanges in the last seven days.

This movement suggests a shift in investor sentiment, with many transferring their coins to non-custodial wallets, likely for long-term storage. This trend indicates growing confidence in Bitcoin's future prospects.

The increased outflows from centralized exchanges could also hint at new buying activity, as investors move their newly acquired assets off trading platforms. This behavior could be a bullish indicator for Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025: Can BTC Rally to $150K by Mid-Year?
Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new ATH of $107,700 in the 2nd week of December. The current rally is giving bullish vibes for early 2025. 
The Fear and Greed Index has reached 87, indicating significant investor interest. The worldwide crypto market cap is $3.72 trillion, up 1%, with trading volumes up 34% to $211 billion.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has surpassed $2.11 trillion, with a trading volume of $83 billion, keeping its dominance at 56.46%.
President Donald Trump’s plans to turn the U.S. into a Bitcoin powerhouse are driving excitement in the industry.
If Trump’s proposal for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve is approved in January, the BTC price might leap to new heights.
This year’s rally has already been driven by the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, and all eyes are now on how 2025 will unfold for Bitcoin.
With new tax policies, regulations, and Bitcoin reserve plans how high can bitcoin go in 2025?
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2025
Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, shared his outlook on Bitcoin’s future in a recent podcast with Thinking Crypto Tony Edwards.
He predicts that Bitcoin’s current fair value of $100,000 will trigger a parabolic surge, potentially pushing its price to $120,000–$150,000 by mid-2025.
Yusko remains confident in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which he believes will peak in the first half of 2025.
However, some analysts warn of a “Double Bubble Altseason,” where a massive pump could lead to a sharp correction, similar to the 2017–2018 cycle. In January 2018, many altcoins surged 100x, only to see a 95% crash within a year.
He backed his stance with the events this year, he noted how Spot ETF approvals in January pushed Bitcoin to $74,000 in February followed by some minor corrections immediately after the approval.
This was the time many took an opportunity to buy the dip and with a distributive pattern, Bitcoin saw lower highs and lows in the futures market as well.
Crypto Community Joins In
Crypto analysts Tommy Mustache and Tim Peterson foresee Bitcoin reaching a price range of $105K to $112K in early 2025, with Peterson relying on his Metcalfe Law model for the projection.
Whereas if all goes well in Q1, the all-time high is expected to climb higher, hitting around $150K–$160K not before mid-2025, while Fibonacci and Elliott Wave analysis indicate slightly higher potential peaks.
By April or May 2025, Bitcoin’s fair value is projected to halt near $100K, driven by reduced leverage and increased investor activity.
Analysts predict a parabolic surge to $150K before a correction occurs, which could see Bitcoin prices drop to nosedive towards $75K.
Having said that, the possible correction will not be as drastic as in previous cycles, where the drops went as low as 50% below the fair value however this time it is a calculated risk.
The predictions are based on historical patterns where New ATHs bring short-term corrections.
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