1. $BTC is declining, oscillating around the 94k position, with 93k and 92k below still needing to clear a large number of long positions. The two rebound points above are 96k and 98k.
Facing the weekend and year-end, with weaker liquidity, it is recommended to keep the contract long position liquidation line below 80k.
2. Last night, the time when $BTC began to decline coincided with the release of a certain piece of news.
The U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS jointly issued the latest broker explanation: the IRS will start taxing DeFi in 2027, and platforms are required to collect and report data starting in 2026.
$BTC has a demand to clear long contract positions downwards, possibly taking advantage of this information.
3. $SOL has basically reached a phase bottom at the 180k position.
Volatility Shares submitted a SOL futures ETF to the SEC.
Solana co-founder Stephen Akridge was sued by his ex-wife, accused of stealing SOL staking profits. #加密市场调整

Worthless, Chinese people's plates.

The favorite of Korean aunties, $UXLINK, which has been dominating the UpBit rankings, suddenly dropped by 50%, leaving many Korean investors in the lurch.
The trading volume of cryptocurrencies in South Korea far exceeds that of the stock market, with about one-third of South Koreans trading coins.
$UXLINK is a token based on social concepts, having released a DAPP on various social media platforms, founded by Chinese individuals in Singapore, initially leveraging WeChat mini-programs.

1. The United States is still in a holiday state, with the 24-hour trading volume of $BTC lower than on Christmas Day, and the price has been fluctuating between 95,000 and 96,000.
Next comes the weekend, and many financial institutions have yet to resume operations, needing to wait until next Monday to return to normal.
According to the current contract distribution, if $BTC drops to 93,000, it will liquidate over 1.7 billion long positions; if it breaks above 98,000, it will also liquidate 1.7 billion long positions.
The Eastern traders are likely to liquidate these two areas within 3 days.
2. With the decline of $BTC, the talk of an altcoin season only lasted for 1 day, and many people joked about holding accountable the initiator "Kill the Wolf".
A full altcoin season still seems distant, and with the U.S. interest rate cuts not meeting expectations, the overall market liquidity may no longer exist.
Whether there will be an altcoin season is still a question; even if there is, it will likely be short-lived and weak.
#BTC上攻11万？ #2025加密趋势预测

1. The short-selling intensive area is in the 100,000-101,000 range, around 1.2 billion. After a brief touch, $BTC did not continue upward clearance. Long positions are mainly concentrated at 96,000, and breaking below will liquidate 1.7 billion. The trading volume during the holiday is very small; Eastern market makers can basically control prices accurately within the 90,000-100,000 range, and the real trend will need to be confirmed on working days. The Christmas season can generally continue until around January 2, during which trading volume may not be too large. 2. Tomorrow, the 27th at 16:00 is the options expiration time, with $BTC's maximum pain point at 84,000, nominal funds at 14.42 billion USD, and in-the-money options at 4.2 billion USD. If the in-the-money options of 4.2 billion are exercised, it may approach 84,000, which has had a significant impact in previous cycles. However, the most likely scenario is to choose an extension. Due to the introduction of spot ETFs and numerous institutions, the current options expiration time has less obvious impact on prices. This may be the only bearish factor at present. 3. According to historical statistics on [Long-Term Holder Trends], the bull market has not yet ended, the process is at about 30% of the bull market cycle, and there should be about 20% left to the peak. Long-term holders are statistically based on on-chain address data holding for more than one year. [Long-Term Holder Trends] is one of the very few pieces of statistical data in the topping-out indicators that has not been falsified, and it may also be metaphysical. 4. Binance's Bitcoin reserves have fallen below 570,000, reaching a new low since January this year. The decrease in exchange reserves indicates that buyers are willing to hold long-term and unwilling to sell, locking it on-chain, which provides strong support for the existing price. 5. The exchange's own tokens are still hot, similar to the stock market principle, buying brokerages in a bull market. When exchanges make money, they will take out a portion to promote their own tokens. Bitget's $BGB broke 6.3, reaching a historical high. gate.io's $GT broke 15, reaching a historical high. #“圣诞老人行情”再现 #比特币市场波动观察

1. The cryptocurrency market during Christmas lacks liquidity, the price of $BTC is completely manipulated, with wild fluctuations causing both long and short liquidations.
Even though the price moves significantly, the liquidation volume is not large, with $236 million liquidated in 24 hours, resulting in both long and short liquidations.
Current liquidation data: falling below 92k, liquidating long positions of 3.1 billion; rising above 100k, liquidating short positions of 1.2 billion.
Liquidation data is dynamic, changing with price trends, especially after liquidations, it will be rearranged.
2. Altcoin trends are solely dependent on $ETH; as long as the price of $ETH remains strong, altcoin markets will perform.
The data for yesterday's spot ETF has not yet been fully updated, but $BTC shows a net outflow while $ETH shows a net inflow, which is also the main reason for the strength of $ETH's price.
Due to weak liquidity during the holiday, the arrival of altcoin season cannot be confirmed at this time.
3. MicroStrategy plans to issue more stock and split its shares, proposing to split 330 million common shares, increasing to 10.3 billion shares.
In the short term, this is unfavorable for investors holding stocks as their shares will be diluted, but in the long term, it should be beneficial.
The funds raised from the issuance will be partly used to pay off debts and for daily operations, while most will be allocated to a $42 billion purchase plan for $BTC. #加密市场反弹 #圣诞行情分析

Short-term investment plan day 3: Accumulated investment of 2 units, totaling 760u, currently has a profit of 230u, meeting the total profit target of 30%. All has been cleared, reinvested, and the target is set to 93080.

1. $BTC took the opportunity of weak liquidity during the Christmas season to drop to a low of 92,500. In the last 24 hours, liquidations reached $285 million, affecting both long and short positions. Overall, the liquidation volume is not large, and trading volume has not increased as a result. With the holidays approaching, American investors' trading appetite is low.
2. Today, the possible price range is between 91,000 and 95,000. If it falls below 91,000, $1.4 billion in long positions will be liquidated; if it rises above 95,000, $1 billion in short positions will be liquidated. Around 4-5 AM, during the shift change between East and West, the Eastern market has pulled from 93,000 to 95,000.
Tonight is Christmas Eve, and U.S. stocks will close early; tomorrow is Christmas Day, and U.S. stocks will be closed. Then we enter the weekend, with the initiative in the hands of Eastern market makers, so be cautious of contract risks and use leverage wisely.
3. Yesterday, MicroStrategy, with its infinite bullets, purchased $BTC again, totaling 5,262 coins at an average price of $106,662. They did not buy directly from the market but rather through OTC, with the price likely agreed upon earlier and executed yesterday. Therefore, from the price of this large purchaser, it seems that the current price in the secondary market is not very expensive.
4. Although $BTC has dropped significantly, the second-tier coin $ETH has shown very strong performance, with only a small decline and a strong rebound. $ETH has driven a collective strength in altcoins; it’s truly a sight to behold. Originally, $BTC's market share was heading towards 60%, but it has now been broken, although the spring of altcoin season has yet to arrive.
#圣诞行情分析 #比特币市场波动观察

Whenever the bull market falls back, someone always brings up "quantum computing" to make a fuss. In fact, $BTC has a mature "anti-quantum computing" solution, so there is no need to worry. $BTC reserves support for future post-quantum (PQ) signature mechanisms through Taproot leaf nodes, and there is no need to activate anti-quantum signature opcodes at present. The threat of quantum computing will not become a reality for at least a few decades, and anti-quantum signature technology will also launch a more compact and mature solution in the future. #量子计算机 #量子计算机攻破中本聪钱包

1. $BTC conforms to the previous prediction, continuing to probe lower, with a minimum drop to 94,000.
Today marks the start of the workweek, with US stocks opening normally. However, as we enter the Christmas season, American investors are likely to be disinterested in trading.
In the last 24 hours, $258 million was liquidated, primarily from long positions.
If it falls below 93,000, over $700 million in long positions will be liquidated; if it rises above 98,000, over $1.4 billion in short positions will be liquidated.
2. At this stage, investors are extremely anxious about holding spot assets and are eager to sell and exit.
The crypto market may enter a phase of sustained decline or consolidation, or experience a sharp sell-off and hit bottom in a short time.
Remember Buffett's words: I am fearful when others are greedy, and I am greedy when others are fearful.
3. Christmas Stock Market Schedule:
On the 23rd, the South Korean exchange Aprobit will cease operations;
On the 24th, Christmas Eve, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will randomly close;
On the 24th, Christmas Eve, US stocks will close 3 hours early;
On the 25th, Christmas, the Hong Kong and US stock markets will be closed.
The US market closure will affect $BTC and $ETH spot ETF trading.

#加密市场盘整 #市场调整後的机会？ #比特币市场波动观察

Executed for 2 days.

On December 22, start a short-term investment plan, with daily results announced:
Investment Reason:
I believe the bull market is still ongoing, at least for $BTC and $ETH, and the current prices are not outrageous.
Additionally, I think there will be a second peak around January 20 when Trump is inaugurated.
Based on these two points, starting now, I will invest a total of 0.4 $BTC and 4 $ETH, divided into 20 parts, investing 1 part daily until the total is reached.
Investment Plan:
1. The price on the day of investment must not exceed 2% of the previous day's price. Otherwise, do not invest until the conditions are met, and all accumulated funds will be invested.
2. If there is a significant drop during the investment period, and $BTC falls below 93,000, half of the total amount will be invested. If it falls below 91,000, the remaining half will be invested.
If it continues to drop, just lie flat and play dead.
3. If the total investment amount exceeds 30% profit on a certain day, sell everything immediately, then place an order to continue investing at 95% of the selling price.
On January 19, the day before Trump's inauguration, clear everything and end the plan.
4. I will use low leverage: $BTC 5x long; $ETH 3x long. There is no need to mess around with leverage in a bull market; maintain $BTC liquidation line below 80,000.
Starting today, place a buy order for $BTC at 95,980, buying 0.02. Place a buy order for $ETH at 3,298.00, buying 0.2.
If not executed, buy at an opportune time before 10 PM.

1. $BTC's oversold rebound has ended, currently oscillating around 97k, with a high probability of re-testing 93k-95k. Given the current weekend and Christmas season timing, attention must be paid to contract safety.
The bullish concentration area is at 95k, and a drop below will liquidate 1.2 billion USD; while the bearish concentration is at the 100k area, a breakout above will liquidate 1.3 billion USD, with a higher probability of downward movement.
2. The Fear & Greed Index is at 73, still in a state of greed, but gradually approaching neutrality.
Signs of weakening in the stage trend have appeared, with the SCVD indicator severely diverging from the spot price, indicating that bulls are struggling to support prices above 100k in the long term.
Data on whale address supply changes shows that large holders are continuously reducing their positions and taking profits above 100k in $BTC.
3. Let's step out of the current optimistic sentiment and look back at the current prices: $BTC at 98k, $ETH at 3300, $SOL at 180, which have already returned to prices from a month ago.
$ETH and $SOL have even returned to prices from March and July of this year. Therefore, it is entirely possible for $BTC to drop back to 90k, or even below 80k.
Although the bull market is not over, a double top is forming, likely peaking during the period of the former President's rise to power.

The size of the sun is also that of a country's prime minister, although this country is not as big as our village. Don't underestimate the beans, this is an international dispute. 😂😂😂

Sun Yuchen Loses His Cool, CoinDesk Editors Pay the Price
A CoinDesk report has upset Sun Yuchen, which details how he purchased an artwork banana for $6.2 million and subsequently ate it, while also mentioning his legal disputes with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and controversies surrounding the $Tron blockchain.
Sun Yuchen was dissatisfied with the report published by CoinDesk and pressured CoinDesk's new owner Bullish to remove the related articles.
The CoinDesk newsroom expressed dissatisfaction with this violation of editorial independence, leading to the new owner firing all the editors. #孙宇晨 #Coindesk

On December 21, Web3Daily.news Crypto Headlines:
1. Yesterday, aided by the less-than-expected interest rate hikes for 2025 and the lack of liquidity over the Christmas weekend, the market makers launched a downward extreme test.
$BTC accurately dropped to 92,000, without wasting a single cent, completely liquidating the accumulated long positions.
In the evening, buoyed by the positive news of cooling PCE inflation, it rebounded and stood back at 97,000.
2. Analysis: The liquidity over the weekend was very low, and with the upcoming Christmas season next week, U.S. investors' trading appetite has diminished significantly, providing ample operational space for Eastern market makers.
Currently, if $BTC breaks down below 93,000, it will liquidate $1.7 billion in long positions; if it breaks up above 100,000, it will liquidate $2 billion in short positions.
On-chain data shows that the support zone between 95,000 and 105,000 has not been broken, and the exchange reserves of $BTC have hit a new low, indicating that the crypto market remains stable.
3. The spot ETF data for $BTC has not yet been updated, but based on the current statistics, there should be a significant net outflow. Two days ago, there was a net outflow of 6,706 coins.
From the trading data before yesterday's market, the buying ratio was 30%, indicating that U.S. investors are starting to turn bearish.
The overall market bearish ratio is 51%, bullish 31%, and neutral 18%.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 74, still in a state of greed.
4. Ethereum may see positive news. SEC officials revealed in an interview that ETH held by ETFs will be allowed to be staked.
The annualized return for ETH staking is over 3%, which will be a substantial profit for institutional holders and will stimulate ETF sales.
#PCE通胀降温 #加密市场回调 #圣诞行情预测

On December 20, Web3Daily.news Crypto Headlines:
1. $BTC dropped to a low of 95,000, with 300,000 liquidations in 24 hours, totaling $1.041 billion, primarily long liquidations amounting to $874 million, and short liquidations amounting to $166 million.
Below 94,000, over 1 billion long positions have accumulated, and if it breaks above 104,000, 3 billion short positions will be liquidated.
As the weekend and Christmas approach, be cautious of contract risks; sharp moves in a bull market will become the norm.
2. Web3Daily.news Analysis: The correction is mainly due to the approaching Christmas season, with U.S. investors selling coins for the holiday, leading to reduced buying appetite.
Additionally, market makers are intentionally liquidating accumulated long positions to take profits.
Furthermore, MicroStrategy may prohibit the purchase of $BTC within a month based on quarterly reports and index entry requirements.
However, the fundamentals remain unchanged, the trend is still optimistic, and the second wave of the bull market is expected during the Trump administration.
3. Current funding rates on mainstream CEX and DEX indicate the market has turned generally bearish, with the current funding rate dropping to around 0.005%.
When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it indicates a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.
#加密市场回调

Human Nature Test: $BTC dropped from 98,000 to 90,000, and everyone thinks $BTC is going to zero. But when it drops from 10.8 to 10, they still feel it hasn’t dropped enough, with a difference of 8000 points, yet the attitude is completely different.
This is human nature, but the market will never follow the thoughts of the majority.
We cannot accurately catch the lowest point; the only way is to feel it’s not too expensive and then get in, buy in batches, avoid going all in, and just aim for an average.
#加密市场盘整 #圣诞行情预测

1. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and hinted that the pace of rate cuts will slow down.
The U.S. stock market subsequently fell, erasing earlier gains; the cryptocurrency market also followed suit, with $BTC barely holding the 100k mark.
The market expects: 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50-75 basis points.
At this rate of rate cuts, full quantitative easing will need to be delayed until 2026.
2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly addressed the #Bitcoin issue for the first time, responding very directly: he does not like $BTC, and stated that the Federal Reserve also does not like $BTC, and definitely does not favor using $BTC as a strategic reserve. Although Congress could adjust the law to allow the Federal Reserve to support it, he hopes such modifications do not occur.
3. Today, Japan will announce its interest rate policy, with the market generally expecting it to remain unchanged. If there is a rate hike, it will be bearish. #加密市场盘整 #FederalReserveRateCut

Binance Announcement: Due to the incorrect market value of the listed token $PENGU, users have suffered losses and will be compensated with 135 million $PENGU tokens.
Compensation of 135 million in 7 minutes, those who have placed buy orders should quickly check their transaction times.