The bull market in 2013 was dominated by Bitcoin. At that time, Bitcoin was like a popular meme coin, rising wildly, and there was no concept of value coins.

In the bull market of 2017, Ethereum was in great glory, ICO triggered a big bull market, and being listed on a large exchange was considered a "value coin", but many value coins of that year have now disappeared. In the bull market of 2020, Defi emerged, and then experienced NFT, chain games, and the metaverse, and ended in a zoo carnival. Defi is essentially a nesting doll game. If the assets are not in debt, it will be unbalanced, such as the death spiral of luna; FTX was due to the exchange's blood transfusion and the broken capital chain. NFT is a small picture hype, similar to online stamps; chain games are Ponzi games in the guise of blockchain. These were once called value investments.

In the bull market of 2024, it seems to be back to the beginning. Bitcoin is the only dominant currency, and the altcoins rely on crazy emotions (fomo), and no longer care about the so-called value VC coins. Meme coin gives power to the community, and the value of retail investors is considered to be the real value. This is in line with the core of decentralization and the original intention of Bitcoin creation, and it is both a social experiment and interesting. #美联储宣布降息50个基点

618 Big Crash! 190,000 people liquidated 478 million US dollars in 24 hours! After the halving, the mining machine was turned on. On June 18, a terrible crash took place in the currency circle. Group members said: "I didn't expect that the altcoins would also catch up with the 618 discount! I woke up and it was liquidated again." This month, the crypto market has frequently seen a plunge, and the long defense line collapsed. Looking at the long-term trend, since Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,775.9 in March, Bitcoin has entered a volatile downward channel, and the decline has exceeded 10% so far. But compared with the 70% retracement from the high point on 618 in 2020, this is nothing. According to Coinglass data, virtual currency contracts liquidated nearly $478 million in 24 hours, affecting 190,000 people, of which the largest single liquidation was as high as $6.4371 million. Cryptocurrency enters darkest hour

The cryptocurrency market has entered a phase that coincides with the deepest and darkest bear market cycle in the past, and the fundamentals of on-chain transaction volume are further deteriorating.

There are many different opinions on the reasons for the decline in the market. There are many factors that affect the recent downward trend. One of the main factors is the reduction in the Fed's expectations for interest rate hikes. For the virtual currency market, this means that there is no new capital entering the market, and the continued decline in the price of the currency is a reflection of this. In the case of a delayed interest rate cut, then June will definitely be a negative decline, and the market may only usher in a turnaround in July, because the leverage will be almost cleared in June, and the positive will be slowly released from the end of July. At that time, it will also be an opportunity for the layout of the cottage. Referring to the last 5.6, it basically fell back to the starting point

Mining machines lose money when they are turned on

Miners who rely heavily on the price of coins after the production cuts have also suffered heavy losses, and many people in the mining circle are "crying out in pain".

With the plummeting price of virtual currencies, the shipments and operating income of mining machine manufacturers have been greatly affected.

Bitcoin is the issuance guarantee of many other virtual currencies, so other virtual currencies will inevitably suffer a chain reaction and fall sharply. In addition, the situation in the mining industry is still unclear. It mainly depends on the actual cost of mining for miners. When miners are unable to make ends meet, the mining industry will stop production.

As Bitcoin falls below $65,000, according to the electricity fee of 0.5 yuan/kWh and based on the current mining difficulty, including Shenma M50, Antminer S19 Pro+ Hydro, etc., will lose money as soon as they are turned on.ETHW, LTC, ZEC, DASH, etc. are basically no longer profitable.

What does the country's massive money injection (2.8 billion) mean?

This time the country is saving the economy, injecting a lot of money, encouraging people to buy stocks and save houses. There will be huge inflation later. If you don't invest in stocks and houses, your deposits will also depreciate. This time the money injection is particularly large. This time the first batch of 800 billion, of which 500 billion can only go into the stock market, not other places. Set up a stabilization fund, start a bull market, let the stock rise several times, let the middle class make money to drive the economy, promote consumption, let companies make money, people have better employment, income growth, naturally more willing to spend, let the economy prosper.
Money will make people feel that it is easy to make. So there will be huge inflation later, and cash will become worthless.

[U.S. Congressman Tom Emmer: Cryptocurrency laws will be introduced no matter who wins the U.S. election]

U.S. Congressman Tom Emmer said at the Messar Mainnet conference held in New York this week: "No matter what the result of the U.S. election, I hope you will see digital asset legislation begin to move forward in both institutions. "I think it's 'when', not 'if', no matter who is in power."

Why do most cities have Wanda Plazas?

Even TV dramas can't film such a plot. It turns out that Wanda Plaza is an incubator for officials' political achievements.
A Wanda Plaza can generate hundreds of millions of yuan in tax revenue and 10,000 jobs.
More importantly, Wanda Group promised that Wanda Plaza would be completed within 18 months from construction to opening. 18 months is a carefully designed number.
Because the term of office of prefecture-level city officials is generally about three years, 18 months can generally ensure that the project is completed within the normal term of office of local officials, allowing them to enjoy their political achievements during their term of office.

[Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba believes that blockchain and NFT can promote regional economies]

Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has revealed policies that support blockchain and NFTs, and will also appoint Masaaki Taira, the current head of the Liberal Democratic Party's Web3 Working Group, as the government's new Minister of Digital Affairs.
According to an official policy document from Shigeru Ishiba's office and a report from CoinPost, he believes that blockchain and NFTs can help promote regional economies. "Using blockchain technology, NFTs, etc., we will seek to maximize the value of a large number of simulated local products, such as food and tourism experiences. We will do this by restoring their value to global prices."
Meanwhile, Taira has previously talked about plans to use NFTs to increase the visibility of Japanese intellectual property assets.

[Robinhood Crypto launches cryptocurrency transfers in Europe, supporting more than 20 digital currencies including BTC, ETH]

On October 1, Robinhood Crypto launched cryptocurrency transfers in Europe, which enables customers to deposit and withdraw more than 20 cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, SOL, USDC, etc. Johann Kerbrat, vice president and general manager of Robinhood Crypto, said: "With the launch of cryptocurrency transfers in Europe, we are making it simpler and easier for customers to self-custody and enter DeFi, giving customers better control over their cryptocurrencies."

Ethereum ETFs saw $84.6 million in inflows last week, the largest inflow in more than a month.

However, it is still far behind the inflows of Bitcoin ETFs, indicating that people prefer Bitcoin ETFs. Last week was the first time that Ethereum ETFs have seen such large inflows since August, with three of the five trading days being positive, and the week with the most inflows since August 9. But even so, the trading volume of Ethereum ETFs is still far lower than that of Bitcoin ETFs. And despite the decline in Ethereum prices, it is currently above the 50-day moving average, showing bullish momentum in the short term.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in November is 52.8%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 47.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52.8%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 21.6%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 49.8%; the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 100 basis points is 28.6%.

This wave of the stock market has allowed veterans to get some money back and newcomers to taste the sweetness.

When will the cryptocurrency world have such a situation?

Wow! Billionaire Mark Cuban said he would consider heading the SEC or the Department of Health and Human Services if Kamala Harris wins the presidential election!

He also prefers to chair the SEC, feeling that current chairman Gary Gensler is bad for crypto and business. And Harris said her administration would support digital assets and blockchain technology. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is also likely to head the "Department of Government Efficiency" in the Trump administration.

With so many high-profile billionaires in the 2024 presidential election, the role of crypto in American politics is really increasing! Trump and his son also recently launched a DeFi business, World Liberty Financial, which has caused a variety of different reactions!

Top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio said CAT will be the next cat meme coin to reach a market value of $1 billion. Is this true? Simon's Cat (CAT) is currently valued at $266 million. Can it really become the next cat meme coin with a market value of $1 billion?

This week, Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill, two founders of the Bitcoin privacy wallet Samourai, appeared in court together for the first time since they were charged by the Department of Justice in April 2024 with conspiracy to launder money and operate an unlicensed remittance business.

On September 17, Rodriguez's eight lawyers requested to modify his bail conditions, including lifting the house arrest requirement and relaxing restrictions on his use of cryptocurrency transactions to pay for legal fees, but were rejected by the judge on the grounds of potential flight risk. The two's defense lawyers said that no evidence of the unregistered currency license business as stated by the prosecutor was found, and Hill's lawyers said that a lot of new information had been received. According to the press release, the wallets created by the two men were accused of executing $2 billion in illegal transactions and assisting in laundering $100 million in assets from well-known black market platforms Silk Road and Hydra Market.

A report by VanEck subsidiary Market Vector believes that Solana has the potential to reach 50% of Ethereum's market value, while its current market value is only 22% of Ethereum.

The Solana network processes many more transactions than Ethereum, has many more daily active users, and has cheaper transaction fees. However, institutional investors are not enthusiastic about Solana's adoption, including Ethereum's early entry into the market, institutions are more familiar with it, and are cautious about rotating investments from mature cryptocurrencies. However, this year Solana has shown signs of widespread institutional adoption, such as Citibank and Franklin Templeton announcing that it will be integrated into financial services.

In addition, the volume of stablecoin transactions on the Solana network exceeds that of Ethereum. The report emphasizes the role of stablecoins in promoting Solana's growth and functionality. It can handle more use cases and provide users with stable digital asset options. For example, Societe Generale and Sky have related plans. The report reminds investors to remain vigilant to market changes in the crypto world.

The market seems to be unstable, so is the overall situation really bullish? Solana's price has dropped significantly recently, but is the reason really not as simple as the market decline? Is Ethereum's recent price surge really due to SOL's collapse?

Is Solana really performing worse than Ethereum? Ethereum's price has risen sharply due to many market factors, upcoming updates, and growing interest, while SOL's USD price has not fluctuated as much. But does the decline in SOL/ETH really mean that Solana has collapsed relative to Ethereum?

In the current market, is the performance of other cryptocurrencies really greatly affected by market leaders such as Ethereum? Because of Ethereum's dominance, do competitor first-layer chains such as Solana really perform worse than Ethereum when Ethereum's price surges? Even if Solana remains strong or stable in USD, is this impact really further amplified in today's market conditions?

As Ethereum's dominance in decentralized finance increases and market participants move funds to ETH, are other blockchain platforms such as Solana really becoming less important? While SOL is still a strong project with active development and use cases, will this really lead to a temporary imbalance in the SOL/ETH pair? Given the rise of Ethereum, is Solana really collapsing? Or is it just losing some ground?

Bitcoin has been trading sideways in the 63,000 area. There has been no deep correction in the 4-hour level trend. If the price cannot go down, it will trade sideways instead of falling, and then start the next wave of rising market.

The short-term support levels to pay attention to are 63,000 and 62,500. Judging from the current trend, the overall correction pattern after the bulls pulled up, the US market fell to around 63,000 yesterday, but did not break the starting point of last night, and quickly pulled back, which shows that the market is not weak. The market will continue to operate at the technical level. Bitcoin turned negative and went down in the US market, but did not retreat continuously. The range oscillation in the bull pattern will increase the demand for continuing to rebound today.

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, Senator Cynthia Loomis, and 40 other politicians wrote to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on September 23rd that they think SAB 121 is a bad rule. Is this true? They say SAB 121 subverts cryptocurrency custody rules, weakens consumer protection, and stifles financial innovation. Is this true? Are the 42 politicians claiming that SAB 121, a proposed rule that would require SEC reporting entities that custody cryptocurrencies to record those holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets, was issued without consulting any "prudential regulators"? They also say that the accounting method "deviates from established accounting principles." The politicians also slammed the SEC's Office of the Chief Accountant for working with certain institutions to circumvent balance sheet reporting requirements, which would create inconsistencies across the board. Is this true?

On September 23, David Zimmerman, a research analyst at K33 Research, said that although the Meme coin craze has caused many people to question whether cryptocurrencies will stop being ridiculous and provide real use cases, a closer look will reveal that the actual use of cryptocurrencies really exists?

The market value of stablecoins in the crypto market recently reached $175 billion. Are they really a vital product for people in emerging markets? Mastercard’s partnership with Mercuryo allows users to use their own cryptocurrencies at more than 100 million merchants. Does this indicate that the practicality of cryptocurrencies is increasing? PayPal and Venmo integrate Ethereum naming services to allow users to transfer cryptocurrencies with readable names. Will this bring great convenience? DePIN project Helium has partnered with large telecommunications companies and has 113,000 people registered for its mobile service. Are there really so many people who give up traditional companies and choose cryptocurrencies as an alternative?

Telegram, which has nearly 1 billion monthly active users, integrates the Open Network (TON) to allow users to transfer cryptocurrencies as easily as texting. Will this become a trend? LINE, an Asian messaging app with more than 230 million monthly active users, is implementing a similar plan with Kaia. Will this drive widespread cryptocurrency adoption?

Ethereum seems to be out of the spotlight right now, but will its underperformance reverse as the year draws to a close?

Ethereum has barely moved this year, while Bitcoin is up 38% and Solana is up 31%. The report cited risks associated with the November U.S. presidential election, increased competition from blockchains like Solana, challenges facing token economics, and mixed reactions to the launch of spot ETFs in the U.S. Ethereum has the most active developers and users, and a market cap five times larger than its closest competitor, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote, "It's like the Microsoft of blockchain." Everyone loves to talk about newer companies and their game-changing technologies, but Microsoft is bigger than all of them combined, so can Ethereum maintain its position in the blockchain space like Microsoft?

Solana (SOL) has performed well in the market, rising from a low of $8 after the FTX crash to a high of $210 in March 2024, an increase of more than 2,000%. However, the market was unfavorable in the second and third quarters, and SOL consolidated above $120. Technical chart analyst Peter Brandt believes that SOL has support at $120 and may form a rectangle that can rise sharply. If it breaks through the rectangular channel, it may theoretically rise to $280.

Solana BreakPoint event has important announcements, and many institutions have shown interest in it, such as Franklin Templeton, Securitize, and Citibank are also exploring tokenization and digital payments through Solana. Solana's second validator client Firedancer will increase processing power and make the network more decentralized after entering the testnet.

However, judging from the daily active addresses, the network growth has stagnated after the expansion at the end of August. SOL has risen about 14% from the $128 support level but has stalled above the 200-day moving average at $154. If the 200-day moving average is recaptured, $160 and $180 could be short-term bullish targets, otherwise a strong move above $150 could be delayed in the short term.