危机警示录

📊 Summary of Bitcoin's volatility today (February 27, 2025)

🔹 Today's Bitcoin price fluctuated between $87384.086 and $85646.861.  
🔹 The current price is about $85646.861, showing a slight decline.  
🔹 The main fluctuations occurred in the early morning to morning stage, with the price fluctuating between $87148.437 and $86590.672, and the transaction price decreased in the afternoon.  

💡 Traders need to pay attention to market dynamics and make corresponding investment decisions!   #Bitcoin#Cryptocurrency #MarketDynamics

The #鲸鱼再次买入VIRTUAL community has exploded! A whale who lost $5.02 million (-36%) earlier this month in VIRTUAL, surprisingly isn't deterred and has made a comeback! According to on-chain detective Yu Jin's data, this big player transferred 4,006 ETH (approximately $10.9 million) to a new address, of which 419 ETH ($1.14 million) was used to buy 1.049 million VIRTUAL at an average price of $1.09. Previously, he had bought 5.038 million at a high of $2.76 (spending $13.91 million), but cut losses and exited at $1.76. Is this operation a genius bottom-fishing move or an obsession to break even? Let's find out!

#链上数据洞察 The impact of the recent Bybit hacking incident on Ethereum chain data is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
1. Large-scale abnormal fund flows
The hacker manipulated the smart contract logic of the multi-signature cold wallet, transferring a total of approximately 514,000 ETH (worth $1.429 billion), becoming one of the largest single fund transfer events on the Ethereum chain. The stolen assets were distributed across 49 Ethereum addresses (each holding 10,000 ETH), with another 15,000 staked cmETH in the unstaking waiting period, further increasing the complexity of on-chain transactions and tracking difficulties. In addition, some funds were exchanged for ETH through DEX, leading to a surge in on-chain exchange transaction volume.
2. Strengthening of on-chain monitoring and tagging systems
Security company Beosin tagged over 40 involved addresses and activated the KYT (Know Your Transaction) tool to monitor fund flows in real time, preventing ETH sell-offs. Such measures reflect the crucial role of on-chain security tools in responding to large-scale attacks, but also expose the limitations of existing monitoring systems in dealing with decentralized money laundering operations.
3. Volatility of stablecoins and staked assets
The incident led to a mass unstaking or transfer of stolen staked assets like stETH and cmETH, which could trigger short-term liquidity imbalance in on-chain staking pools. Furthermore, panic related to the incident affected the stablecoin USDe, causing it to temporarily decouple from the dollar (dropping to $0.98), reflecting the vulnerability of the on-chain stablecoin anchoring mechanism during extreme events.
4. Address association and mixing risks on-chain
After the hacker distributed the funds to 49 addresses, they further concealed the flow using mixing tools (such as Tornado Cash), resulting in a sharp increase in the difficulty of cleaning Ethereum chain data. This operational model may drive future upgrades of on-chain analysis tools regarding cross-address associations and funding path prediction capabilities.
5. On-chain exposure of smart contract security vulnerabilities
The attack exploited the centralized defect of smart contract upgrade permissions and induced multi-signature authorization through forged front-end UI, exposing the potential risks of multi-signature contracts in the Ethereum ecosystem. This incident may prompt developers to restructure the permission separation mechanism and secondary verification processes of on-chain contracts.

#价格趋势分析 Short-term Trend (Daily Level):
If ETH recently retreats from a high position, it may form a short-term descending triangle or double top pattern. For example, if a long upper shadow candlestick appears on February 17, it indicates strong selling pressure above, which may be sellers taking profits at a certain resistance level (such as $4000).
The current support level may be at the 50-day moving average (assumed to be around $3200) or a key psychological level (such as $3000). If it breaks below support, it may further drop to $2800-$2900.
Medium-term Trend (Weekly Level):
Since the low point in 2022 (around $1000), ETH may be in an ascending channel. The horizontal support in 2024 (such as $2500) may have been tested multiple times and verified as strong support.
If the current price approaches the upper boundary of the channel (assumed to be $4000-$4500), it may face adjustment pressure; if at the middle line (around $3500), there is still room for upward movement.
Long-term Trend:
Based on historical cycles, ETH often breaks previous highs (such as $4878 in 2021) during bull markets. If 2025 is a continuation year for the bull market, the target may point to $6000-$10000.

#活跃用户影响 Active user impact refers to the influence that the active user group on blockchain or digital platforms has on network ecology and market dynamics. These users not only drive the daily use of the platform but also influence the platform's growth, value, and stability through participation in transactions, interactions, or content creation. In the cryptocurrency field, an increase in active users often signals rising market demand, which in turn drives price increases. In decentralized applications (DApps) and DeFi platforms, the behavior of active users can also directly impact smart contract execution, liquidity provision, and governance decisions of the platform. Therefore, understanding the behavior patterns of active users is crucial for both platform developers and investors, as it helps them better predict market changes and development trends.

#代币流动信号 Inflow to Exchanges Increase: If a large amount of LTC flows into exchanges, it may indicate that investors are preparing to sell their tokens, and the market may face selling pressure in the short term, enhancing bearish signals. If the inflow continues to increase without a significant price rise, this bearish possibility becomes greater.

- Outflow from Exchanges Increase: An increase in LTC flowing out of exchanges usually indicates that investors are transferring tokens to personal wallets for long-term holding, which is a bullish signal for the market, suggesting that investors are optimistic about LTC's long-term value and expect the price to rise in the future.

Wallet Transfer Signals

- Whale Wallet Movements: Large transfers of LTC between whale addresses may indicate that large investors or institutions are adjusting their asset allocations. If multiple whale wallets concentrate towards a few wallets, it could signal a significant move, and if accompanied by favorable market news, it may drive the price up; if dispersed out, it may indicate risk diversification or a lack of confidence in the market, leading to selling risks.

- Changes in Long-term Holder Wallets: A continuous increase in LTC balance in long-term holder wallets indicates that they are accumulating coins, showing strong confidence in LTC, which is beneficial for price stability and growth. For example, in October 2023, long-term holders of Litecoin started to buy LTC in large quantities from the beginning of October, with net inflows exceeding 400,000 LTC multiple times, which is a relatively positive signal.

#市场情绪观察 Many people are watching for an upward trend today and a downward trend tomorrow, feeling anxious.
I have a simple method to break this confusion: using the daily chart as a period, look at the current trend. I posted about this earlier, and everyone can refer to it. The current market is still in a daily level of fluctuations, with a bottom around 92000 and a top around 108000. As long as the drop does not exceed 90000 and the rise does not exceed 110000, it can basically still be judged as a fluctuation. Regardless of how the market rises or falls, using my method will not cause panic.

In the current thriving digital economy, wallet activities have become a key window for glimpsing market trends and user behavior. From transaction data, high-frequency small payments are often concentrated in daily consumption scenarios, reflecting the vibrant aspects of people's lives; whereas large transfers are mostly linked to investments and asset allocation, showcasing the flow of wealth.

In terms of activity participation, the conversion and retention rates of new users after receiving registration bonuses and experiencing beginner discounts can reflect the wallet's attractiveness and user stickiness. The responses of old users to various cashback and points redemption activities can also reflect the alignment of wallet functions and services.

Wallet activities are also closely linked to market sentiment. During a bull market, the participation rate in investment-related wallet activities is high; during economic downturns, savings and discount activities are more favored. Analyzing wallet activities can provide decision-making basis for financial institutions, merchants, and even investors, allowing them to accurately grasp the market and seize opportunities in the digital wave.

#Gas费影响 has Binance as its backend, has a destruction mechanism, serves as the GAS fee for the BSC chain, and its value depends on the prosperity of the BSC chain ecosystem. The appreciation issue in the future is not significant (four-digit long-term outlook is not a problem). Current price: 656. The current price can be considered for entry; 678-688 is not a big issue; below 643 is a no-brainer entry. Some cliff-like declines are basically caused by negative news. So remember, next time there is such a situation, do not hesitate to bottom-fish directly.

$ETH ETH Ethereum is currently unable to break through 2800, 2800 seems like a hurdle that can't be crossed. The fundamental reason is that funds are being heavily suppressed around 2800, possibly big investors are accumulating at the 2800 position, but Ethereum funds are also flowing towards Solana. Ethereum is currently too cold, lacking sufficient fund aggregation, and will ultimately flow towards the Sol chain and shift towards Trump's Dogecoin Con An Conan, because Con An currently has a market value between 10m-15m with significant growth potential. The next step is that Trump's Dogecoin will take off.

Chives, will money-making things still take you?

#美国非农数据即将公布
Tonight at 21:30, the cryptocurrency market is about to stir again! Major data from the United States is coming!
Dear cryptocurrency investors, prepare for the upcoming market turbulence! On January 10, 2025, at 21:30, the United States will announce the unemployment rate for December and the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data for December. The significance of these two key indicators is self-evident and their impact on the market is profound.
First, let's focus on the unemployment rate for December:
The previous value and expectations are both 4.20%. If the announced value is lower than expected, it indicates a strong U.S. job market and good economic performance, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt tightening policies, potentially leading to outflows from the cryptocurrency market and a decrease in coin prices. Conversely, if the data is higher than expected, it suggests a weak job market and potential recession risks for the economy. The Federal Reserve may continue to maintain loose policies or even cut interest rates, which could attract funds into the cryptocurrency market, driving up coin prices.

$BTC At first, people thought it was just a washout, wash your grandma's leg, have you ever seen a washout at a high position? This is a test of the selling pressure! The dealer's selling needs to meet one condition: someone must take over. If the number of buyers and their sentiment are insufficient, retail investors fleeing too quickly may lead to a situation where a large amount of stock cannot be sold. If necessary, everything must be sold. It is expected that we are preparing to enter a bear market. Let's observe the points; Bitcoin is just making slight adjustments, and all the altcoins have fallen first as a courtesy, which indicates something that I won't say. The sentiment does not support a bull market; funds are all in ETFs, and there hasn't been a real influx into the crypto market.

I'll give you some faith.
1. In January 2021, it rose by 14%, and in February it rose by 36%;
2. In January 2022, it fell by 16%, and in February it rose by 12%;
3. In January 2023, it rose by 0.03%, and in February it rose by 22%;
4. In January 2024, it rose by 0.62%, and in February it rose by 43%;
5. In 2025 ----?
Historically, BTC rose by at least 20% in February. Now it is correcting. First, buy the bottom in batches and lie flat for a month. In February, there will be meat to eat.
On January 9, according to market news, the U.S. Department of Justice was approved to sell the seized $6.5 billion worth of Silk Road case-related bitcoins. This may be a negative news. There are only a dozen days left before Trump takes office. Who is he slapping in the face with this?
Because Trump has not yet taken office and cannot interfere, the 6.5 billion US dollars of BTC in Silk Road has been approved for sale. It seems that the sellers are very anxious. After all, Trump promised not to sell it. Look for opportunities in trading. Although it is obviously negative, it is not a big problem to digest these after Trump takes office. On the contrary, it is an opportunity. Risks and opportunities coexist.
In the currency circle, it is often "slow rise and sharp fall". This situation mostly occurs in the middle of a rebound or rise. To put it bluntly, this is the old routine of washing the market in the bull market.
A coin has finally risen for a few days, and suddenly there is a big drop. The gains of a few days are lost in one day. In this way, novices and those who can't bear it are scared to hand over the chips in their hands.
When it falls to a certain level, it stabilizes and then slowly rises again. When the stock price falls back to a new high and rises to a certain height, there are more people following the trend, and the main funds will come up with this set again, and suddenly brake on the way up. This kind of decline is fast and short. The market can fall by 5%-10% in a few days. Sometimes it can fall by 15%-20%. But don't worry, it will stabilize near the important support line.
A new round of panic has begun. Are you afraid?
Don't be afraid. The decline of the currency circle is not a systemic collapse, but a technical squeeze of the bubble, preparing for Trump's coming to power. When the time comes, it will rise to realize his great talent and wisdom. This world is a performance field. Capitalists, for the sake of vested interests, will definitely do things to add fuel to the flames.
$BTC

#比特币价格走势分析

$WLD
For those who are long on wld, please add margin or set stop loss. This dealer is inhumane. I wonder if anyone remembers the time in the early morning of June when the price went directly from 5u to 1u, and how many people lost their fortunes.

#2025加密趋势预测
💥 $USUAL holders, listen up! In 2025, this thing might just become incredibly popular! 💥
📅 You see, by December 26, 2024, the trading price of USUAL is already firmly at $1.39! But this is just the beginning!
🔮 By 2025, several reliable institutions are saying that $USUAL is about to enter a bull market! CoinCodex estimates the price will fluctuate between $1.68 and $5.88, averaging around $3.36! DigitalCoinPrice is even more optimistic, suggesting that by the end of the year, it might surpass $3.52, with an average price of about $3.54!
⚠️ However, a word of caution, the cryptocurrency market can change as quickly as the weather, so these predictions are just rough estimates; the actual price may vary!
🔍 Therefore, for those looking to invest, make sure to do your own research and think it over carefully before taking action!
🚀 Let's wait and see together if USUAL can shine brightly in 2025 and dazzle everyone!
Bull market strategy layout, spot ambush opportunities, contract entry points, uncovering false information fog, discovering the real market, I'm Pao Ge, welcome to join!
#本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？
#2025加密趋势预测
#比特币市场波动观察

$BNB

BNB: The Brilliant Star of the Crypto Field

As the core token of the Binance platform, BNB occupies an important position in the crypto world. It not only provides users with a convenient trading experience but also has a wealth of application scenarios. As Binance continues to expand its business landscape, the value of BNB is also continuously increasing. Whether as a means of payment, participating in DeFi projects, or playing a role in the blockchain ecosystem, BNB demonstrates strong potential. In the future, BNB is expected to continue leading the crypto trend, bringing more opportunities to investors.

#市场反弹迹象 The large pancake is currently attempting to break through the resistance level of 99200. If it breaks through, it will continue to rise to the right shoulder at 103500. Those looking to short can enter around 103000.
Ethereum and Solana have currently completed their adjustments and will continue to rise afterwards. You can buy on dips.
$BTC

Stupid activity, I got trapped to do this

$BTC
Will my position explode? 🤔