Today, many friends sent private messages expressing their anxiety due to being trapped by high-position orders during the decline, and later worrying about missing the opportunity to get on board during the afternoon rebound. Here, I will unify my personal views. For those who came to inquire, I patiently provided suggestions; if there are any inappropriate aspects, I hope for your understanding.

This pullback belongs to the daily level and is difficult to end in the short term. The afternoon's rebound is merely a brief bounce after an oversold condition, and it is highly likely that the low point from early this morning will be broken in the future. When making small-scale operations, one can appropriately place small orders.

The specific operational points are as follows:
First, do not blindly chase high prices.
Second, choose your preferred investment targets; if you need assistance with analysis, feel free to contact me via private message on my homepage.
Third, adopt a pyramidal order strategy with batch placements.

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On Wednesday, the crude oil market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. After climbing to around $70.7, the oil price encountered selling pressure and turned downward. It found support and stabilized at $69.37, and finally closed at $69.446. From the daily chart, a negative inverted hammer line with a long upper shadow was recorded. Its high point broke through the previous high, but the low point did not fall below the previous low. The daily level showed an adjustment pattern, and there were obvious signs of pressure above.

At the four-hour level, the Bollinger Bands showed a wide flat trend, and the oil price was blocked and fell when it touched the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. The previous support level below is in the $68.8 area. Once the support is effectively broken, it may trigger further downward momentum. The short-term resistance level above is at the $69.8 level. Given that the oil price has risen and fallen again, a bearish trend may gradually form. As for today, the short-term focus on the resistance of the 70.5 to 71.0 USD range is the upper side, and the focus on the support of the 68.0 to 67.5 USD range is the lower side.

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SOL Market Analysis
1. Recent Trend Overview
The price has continued to decline after a rebound, currently reaching the upper support level of the 155 - 185 range, triggering a rebound trend on an hourly basis. The support strength at this neckline comes from the high point areas in May and July.

2. Future Market Outlook
(1) Short-term Rebound Trend
It is estimated that there will be a rebound trend around the daily MA30, although there is no possibility of a direct V-shaped reversal.

(2) Anticipated Secondary Decline
After experiencing a rebound, it is highly likely that there will be a daily level retracement, and then a continuation platform will be built within a fluctuating pattern.

3. Key Reference Points
(1) Pressure Point Distribution
Mainly concentrated at positions such as 233.6, 245, 270, 283, and 300.

(2) Support Points Listed
Including key support levels such as 184.5, 169.3, 158.8, and 152.3.

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Speculation on Trump's Connection to Bitcoin
Trump may designate Bitcoin as a U.S. reserve asset on his first day in office.

Jack Mallers, founder and CEO of Strike, stated that President-elect Trump might issue an executive order on his first day, designating Bitcoin as a reserve asset under the terms of the 'Stable Dollar Act,' with a potential order for 200,000 Bitcoins.

The 2024 'Bitcoin Act' was proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis in July, recommending that the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve purchase 200,000 BTC annually for five years, totaling 1 million. The reserves would be held for 20 years, accounting for 5% of the total supply. This has sparked high expectations, with Bitcoin prices potentially reaching $800,000 by the end of 2025.

Perianne Boring, founder of the Digital Chamber, stated that the fixed supply of Bitcoin could lead to price increases. If Trump promotes crypto policies, there may be no price ceiling, citing the stock-to-flow model, with predictions exceeding $800,000 by the end of 2025 and a market cap reaching $15 trillion, currently over $2 trillion. PlanB predicts an average price of around $500,000 in 2025, with a high of up to $1 million.

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Sui has risen to a new high this round, becoming a strong competitor to Sol, and it is not an exaggeration to say that it is SUI.

Bluefinapp is the largest contract DEX for Sui, accounting for 90% of the ecological trading volume. For those looking to invest in the Sui ecosystem, keep an eye on BLUE. In the Sui ecosystem, only Sui and Cetus are on BN, will Bluefin become the ecological jup? Its original main contract has pushed spot trading in the past 3 weeks, making it the only one-stop platform for spot contracts.

The total trading volume of the Sui ecosystem is approximately 70 billion, with Bluefin accounting for 40 billion, the largest trading volume, and transaction fees exceeding 10.5 million, ranking first. TVL has reached 80 million, with a 24-hour increase of 7.5 million. On-chain users are 111008, increasing by about 5000 daily. Over the past 24 hours, the contract trading volume was 215 million, with spot trading volume of 100 million.

BLUE has been launched on multiple platforms, and for those optimistic about the Sui ecosystem, don't forget about the on-chain infrastructure. The altcoin market is volatile, DYOR.

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Do not compare the bull markets of 2017 and 2021 with the current situation.

Although I mentioned the start of the altcoin market at the beginning of August, many altcoins are merely a Tyndall effect, fleeting and transient.

There are still few large capital entrants, retail participation is low, the washout period is lengthy, and these old coins have strong narratives, still familiar faces.

The key point now is that the bull market cycle is still ongoing, and the washout is actually an opportunity; however, how long this round of washout will last, no one can predict.

In the future, if you encounter altcoins that have already risen significantly, do not chase them; if you miss out, so be it.

The real opportunity lies in new coins where the entire network is in FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt). If this wave can complete a deep washout, build a daily bottom, and consolidate for a while, then it can be entered, with at least the possibility of doubling.

The focus remains on directions such as L1, RWA, and AI.

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BGB has already broken through 4.6u, and its momentum can be described as rapid and extraordinary! In the cryptocurrency industry, the importance of making choices far exceeds mere hard work.

As the market faces a large-scale correction, BGB seems to be unaffected, experiencing only a brief and slight fluctuation in the morning, akin to a fine needle being inserted, before quickly rebounding. It is now only a stone's throw away from 5u, and its future development prospects are extremely promising, deserving of continued optimism.

BGB, under Bitget, is undoubtedly a model example, having operated for 6 years without any incidents, successfully capturing the fourth-largest market share globally and achieving an astonishing increase of 600% in 2024. If it were not for a solid, step-by-step strategic system to support it, such brilliant achievements would indeed be hard to believe!

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As Ethereum's price declines, the market is often filled with panic, while during its rise, investors are prone to the "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO) mentality.

This widespread emotional response makes it difficult for many investors to accurately grasp the timing, often causing them to miss opportunities for a rebound in Ethereum's price or failing to enter the market in time at the beginning of a new trend.

Bitcoin has now started a rebound trend, and although its consolidation process has been extremely harsh, causing investors much distress, from a long-term perspective, the eventual outcome is likely to develop in a positively favorable direction.

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Daily technical analysis shows that the price is stable above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Although there has been a pullback, the strong trend remains, indicating an upward momentum. The daily chart suggests a rebound, with signs of reclaiming lost ground and higher lows, indicating a strong short-term rebound, and the trend may continue. Overall, the correction is unlikely to change the bullish control, seeming like a trap for short-sellers, and the outlook remains bullish. Short-term indicators show that the price at 98000 has confirmed support, leading to further rebounds, and the market is similarly positioned, having stabilized above 100000. Therefore, a pullback near this level presents a good opportunity to go long and ride the bullish wave.

BTC intraday at 100600 long, stop at 90800, target 101800.
ETH intraday at 3650 long, stop at 3610, target 3710.

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Don't panic, let me analyze this for everyone:

Yesterday I mentioned that we would test the bottom again, and it was mentioned that this would be around the brow bone opening and when the interest rate cuts began, but I didn't expect it to come so intensely.

This wave of panic sell-off caused by old Powell's speech has led to a crash; there hasn’t been a continuously rising market, nor a continuously falling one. There’s no need to panic; with such a steep decline, there is bound to be a rebound. At this moment, there are signs of a V-shaped reversal; if it rises, everything will be fine. Over 700 million in leverage has been liquidated, and many have been trapped.

This bull market is being washed out too severely; we have to grit our teeth and get through it. In the past, bulls have never faced such a dire situation; it's been a constant back-and-forth, with Bitcoin reaching new highs while altcoins are still lying low. But we must pull ourselves together, seize the main trend, and ride the waves; as long as the bull is still here, we won’t leave.

The bottom has been tested, leverage has been cleared, and tests have been conducted. We await the subsequent surge. Once it rebounds explosively🈳!

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12.19 Thursday Bitcoin and Ethereum Morning Market Analysis

In trading, whether it’s a significant fluctuation or a volatile market, the key lies in accurately seizing opportunities.

From the daily structure analysis, Bitcoin has experienced a pullback after reaching a high, showing a pattern of upward and downward wicks. However, the current low of the pullback happens to be the previous high, so this cannot be regarded as the beginning of a market reversal. After all, the recent decline in Bitcoin's price has specific reasons. In terms of the current shape, after a significant decline, Bitcoin is likely to undergo an adjustment first, probably a correction in terms of time. Once the adjustment is complete, Bitcoin’s price will re-enter a phase of recovery. From the four-hour chart, as the highs continue to rise, it further highlights the overall strong pattern. Currently, the downward trend mainly presents itself in the form of wicks, so we just need to wait for Bitcoin's price to complete its correction before it rises again.

Morning Trading Suggestions:

For Bitcoin, you can go long directly in the range of 100500 - 100000, with a target of 105000.

For Ethereum, go long directly in the range of 3670 - 3650, with a target of 3800.

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Today's market hot spots focus on key points:
Currently, the meme market is relatively bland, altcoins are in a difficult situation, and only Bitcoin keeps hitting new highs.

Firstly, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday morning, and this rate decision has become a foregone conclusion. Pay attention to market volatility triggered by the meeting tonight.

Secondly, the Bitcoin Policy Research Institute drafted an executive order for Trump, proposing to regard Bitcoin as "digital gold" and establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

Thirdly, it is expected that a significant rally for Bitcoin will only start in 2025, and the current phase is just a preparatory stage. BlackRock released a 3-minute educational video explaining the core concepts of Bitcoin, which has considerable learning value.

Fourthly, after $PENGU was launched, a network failure prevented withdrawals. However, on-chain monitoring found that the team’s address was selling, implying retail investors are inadvertently contributing to the team. This once again highlights the characteristics of meme coin markets this year, where the community and retail investors prefer pure meme coins over venture capital (VC) coins or team-led coins.

Fifthly, Binance (BN) frequently launches new coins, but some of the already launched valuable coins like $VANA, $MOVE, and $ME have seen significant declines, with poor liquidity and signs of project teams dumping.

Sixthly, Binance has launched something similar to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, called Binance Alpha, where coins need to be pre-selected; its effectiveness remains to be seen.

Seventhly, the Bitcoin Layer 2 project Stacks launched sBTC.

Eighthly, the co-founder of BIO Protocol claimed that the BIO token will be launched on Solana and plans to conduct airdrop activities targeting communities like Big Pharma.

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Bitcoin ETF Fund Flow Analysis: Spot ETF Net Inflow of 494 Million in a Single Day, BlackRock Leads

On December 18, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs was strong, with total assets under management at 121.683 billion, accounting for 5.76% of the total market capitalization, and a historical cumulative total exceeding 36.7 billion.

Fund Flow: Grayscale ETF (GBTC) had a net outflow of 84.71 million in a single day, with a historical cumulative total of 21.112 billion; Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) had a net inflow of 3.7846 million in a single day, with a historical cumulative total of 1.042 billion; BlackRock ETF (IBIT) had a net inflow of 741 million in a single day, with a historical cumulative total of 37.043 billion leading the way.

Behind the Scenes: BlackRock is favored, indicating institutional confidence, enhancing Bitcoin's status; the outflow from Grayscale is due to concerns over product management, with funds possibly flowing to better ETFs.

Outlook: The Bitcoin market is maturing with institutional participation, and the inflow of funds into spot ETFs may continue to increase, drawing attention to their market impact and potential.

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Altcoin Market: Risks and Opportunities

After a significant drop on December 9, the market has been consolidating for nearly 10 days, with many altcoins undergoing a 'second test' now, showing low volume and weak selling pressure.

On November 22, Bitcoin experienced a minor pullback, which was followed by a general rise in altcoins.

Today, Bitcoin is showing signs of another pullback, and altcoins may rise again after completing their tests.

However, the market conditions are different today: the supply of USDT is increasing slowly, and there is less money flowing; back then, Ethereum was seeing new gains, but today it is not strong.

Therefore, the altcoin market presents both opportunities and risks. One can look for trading opportunities but should avoid being blindly optimistic and aggressive.

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Bluefin is a decentralized spot and derivatives trading platform in the Sui network, accounting for more than 90% of the contract trading volume in the Sui ecosystem, and its position is crucial.

In terms of investment lineup, Polychain led the investment, and many investment institutions such as SIG, Brevan Howard, Tower Research, and Wintermute participated in it.

In the Sui ecosystem, currently only Sui and Cetus have successfully landed on Binance. As a project in the Sui ecosystem that is as fast-growing as Jupiter, Bluefin, as a platform that can meet the one-stop needs of spot and contract trading, is very likely to become the next project to land on Binance.

From the perspective of technical form, it is currently in a correction trend. You can consider making an early layout with a position of 5.5 at the two key points of 0.381 and 0.31, and wait for subsequent development opportunities.

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【Market Observation: ADA】

Cardano (ADA) previously achieved an impressive 189% increase; however, after retreating from a high of $1.32, it is currently in a correction phase. From the 4-hour chart, ADA is consolidating within a descending triangle, which is a bearish pattern, indicating that its movement may lean towards weakness in the short term.

Yesterday, ADA faced resistance above $1.11 and failed to break through, further intensifying downward pressure. Its current trading price is $1.02 and remains below that resistance area, making it likely that Cardano will continue to move downward towards the support level of $0.90 at the bottom of the descending triangle.

This support area is extremely critical. Of course, if buying power enters at the $0.90 level, then ADA may experience a rebound.

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Bitcoin: The four-hour cycle shows a top pattern, and it is important to pay attention to the lower price level of 103000 to see if it is broken. Whether the subsequent market continues the bullish trend or starts a significant pullback depends on whether this price level can be broken or regained.

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Only an hour has passed, and Bitcoin and Ethereum have both shown signs of a pullback. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen to the intraday support line mentioned earlier, and Ethereum has also reached the vicinity of 3820. The key focus now should be on whether these two levels can form an effective intraday support line. If broken, Ethereum may first test the major support level in the range of 3790 to 3720 in the coming days.

As for Bitcoin's price action, it may once again approach the 100,000 mark, with reference to the four-hour lower boundary around 101.4k.

I would like to remind everyone again, at this stage, opportunities and risks coexist. Any trading decisions and strategies must be conducted with the premise of ensuring the safety of one's own funds. In the six months following the end of this breakout market, the craze for leveraged trading will reach unprecedented heights. Only by sticking it out until then can one hope to achieve the ultimate victory.

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Hype belongs to the contract exchanges, and so does GMX. GMX has a market capitalization of 300 million, which suggests that Hype's price should be $0.3.

Hype plans to launch a public chain, and currently, the market capitalization of public chains ranges from several billion to tens of billions. If we consider the valuation of the public chain, Hype's price should be in the range of $1 to $3.

This is the valuation made by others. From this perspective, my purchase of Hype at an average price of $24 may face a decline of 98.18%. Do not rush to enter the market just because of the “fear of missing out” (FOMO) information I posted; it is safer and more reliable to wait for the price to drop to around $3 before entering.

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WIF

I plan to enter at the current price of 2.769, with an expected target price around 4 dollars.

I have been closely monitoring and analyzing its market trends for ten consecutive days, and its price is currently above an important support level on the daily chart. This moment is a relatively suitable time to build a position. After Bitcoin and Ethereum complete their upward trends this week, altcoins will usher in their prosperous period, a trend that is unstoppable.

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#加密市场狂欢 #圣诞行情预测 #BTC再创新高