VgTC

This week, Trump's tariff policy is causing chaos,
global financial markets are plummeting,
U.S. stocks have almost erased the gains of 2025,
we in the crypto circle have experienced an epic correction,
comparable to the events of May 19 a few years ago, RSI and other indicators have hit their lowest points.
Bitcoin has dropped 25% from its historical high,
Ethereum has dropped 45% from this round's high.
The PCE data released on Friday
shows that inflation cooled down in January, which is good news.
Many brothers easily fall into the trap of chasing up and selling down due to short-term fluctuations,
ultimately losing most of their chips,
and when the market rebounds, they buy back in, ending up losing money.
We cannot predict whether it will rise or fall in the coming days,
we can only say that the overall trend is upward,
the whales have accumulated cheap chips at the bottom,
the next step is whether to pump the market.
Some signs indicate that interest rate cuts may still be possible this year:
1. A sharp decline in U.S. consumer spending
2. Low consumer confidence
3. A significant increase in unemployment claims
4. Disappointing housing data, etc.
Next Friday at 21:30, the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be released.
If this continues to be favorable for the crypto circle, then BTC could quickly return to $120,000.
Previously, we mentioned that BTC's sharp decline
has provided room for altcoins to attack,
and there may be an altcoin season from April to June.
However, it is still recommended to hold 30% BTC.

In March, the cryptocurrency market warmed up and rose. How should we reasonably respond to market changes:
Risk management first: Set tiered profit-taking and dynamic stop-loss; avoid excessive leverage, contract leverage ≤ 5 times.
Position and asset allocation: Regularly invest in mainstream coins (BTC/ETH), accounting for 50%-70%; allocate to leading potential sectors, accounting for 20%-30%; maintain a 10% cash reserve.
Market analysis and information capture: Track on-chain data, such as net inflows to exchanges; pay attention to macro events, such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions; participate in community hotspots, such as new project public offerings.
Operational skills: Band trading on weekly breakouts, with increased trading volume and high development activity of 'strong coins'; ambush using airdrop expectations; avoid FOMO chasing highs, pullbacks when RSI > 70, etc.; regularly review and adjust positions.
Clean up the investment portfolio, concentrating funds on quality cryptocurrencies.
Continuously research and analyze fundamentals, technical aspects, etc.
Diversify investments, allocating funds to different types of assets.
Stay calm and avoid emotional decision-making.
Pay attention to regulatory policies and choose projects with strong compliance.
Securely store assets, using cold wallets or hardware wallets.
Long-term perspective, avoid short-term speculation.
Use on-chain analysis tools to assist decision-making.
Tip: The current market is still influenced by Federal Reserve policies. If inflation data exceeds expectations, be wary of short-term pullback risks. Rational allocation, avoid All-in on a single asset.

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Market Analysis: Bitcoin drops from 100,000 to below 80,000, what should we do?
Assessing Market Phase: Determine if the decline is a short-term correction or a trend reversal, referencing technical patterns and macro environment; evaluate holder behavior through on-chain indicators.
Technical Analysis: Focus on the support level at 80,000; if it breaks below, it may test 60,000 to 70,000; pay attention to the relationship between volume and price, a decrease in volume during a drop or weakening selling pressure; a significant volume break needs to be cautious.
Position Management: If holdings are heavy and risk tolerance is low, consider reducing positions or buying put options; for a long-term bullish outlook, consider buying in batches at key support levels.
Sentiment Operations: If the fear index is below 30, consider buying inversely; monitor negative sentiment on social media.
Utilizing Derivatives: If holding spot, consider opening a small short position for hedging; if expecting increased volatility, consider buying a straddle option combination.
Diversified Investment: Allocate some funds to safe-haven assets or low-correlation crypto assets; invest 20-30% of funds in stablecoins for financial products.
Take Profit and Stop Loss: Set a stop loss at 75,000, take partial profit at 90,000 during a rebound; can move up the stop loss level as prices recover.
Focus on Fundamentals: Track policy events and on-chain upgrade dynamics.
Long-term Strategy: Long-term holders can transfer BTC to cold wallets or invest monthly.
Leverage Risk: Avoid high-leverage contracts, leverage ratio ≤ 3 times; monitor funding rates and avoid forced short squeezes.
Information Verification: Verify data through authoritative platforms and track whale wallet movements.
Psychological Adjustment: Set alerts, then close the software, and review historical similar corrections.
Key Conclusion: If it falls below 75,000 in the short term without support, consider reducing positions; if holding 80,000 shows a reversal pattern, consider going long; in the long term, below 80,000 may be a configuration window. Note that cryptocurrency is highly volatile, it is advisable to adjust based on personal risk preference, avoid all-in or borrowed investments.
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February 28: Financial markets plummet, panic intensifies

On February 28, U.S. stocks sharply declined, with all three major indices closing lower. The technology sector led the decline, with the market capitalization of the seven giants evaporating nearly $550 billion, and Nvidia's market cap dropping over $270 billion.

The cryptocurrency market followed suit, with Bitcoin falling below $80,000, hitting a new low since November 11 of last year. Ethereum and SOL also saw significant declines, and many altcoins fell to historical lows.

In the foreign exchange market, the dollar rose over 0.7%, U.S. oil closed up over 2.5%, and spot gold fell sharply by 1.3%. The weakening U.S. economy and uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies have heightened market anxiety.

The overall situation is severe; everyone should pay attention to risk control, preserving principal is the top priority!
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