This blog will launch a brand new public welfare benefit package VB (Search Five Elements Academy): ♛ Irregularly released technical strategy teaching videos ☞ Meet your learning needs; ♛ Macro market hot spot video interpretation ☞ Broaden your financial thinking perspective ♛ Blockchain application knowledge teaching ☞ Deeply understand the underlying technical logic of various cryptocurrencies, cutting-edge information in the blockchain market
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I say Ethereum is garbage, I don't think anyone will disagree, right? If you think it's garbage, give me a thumbs up, let's see how many people there are?
♛1.18 Market Investment Diary: Important points: ♥Nasdaq submitted a 19-b application for Litecoin ETF, which has met all approval conditions and is expected to become the first approved copycat ETF this year. Given that Litecoin is considered a commodity and the new SEC leader has taken office, the probability of approval is very high! [If LTC is approved, it will become the third ETF product after BTC and ETH. The short-term market speculation is expected to continue, which is a continuous positive] ♥Polymarket predicts that the probability of the United States establishing a national Bitcoin strategic reserve in 2025 is 48% [Trump's campaign manifesto also mentioned that Bitcoin will be used as a strategic reserve when he takes office. If so, it means that Bitcoin will rise from the institutional level to the government level. This is a great benefit. As Trump moves closer to the White House, market sentiment may heat up again. Market rumors say that Trump plans to issue an executive order to list cryptocurrency as a national policy priority] ♥wold liberry. In the past 3 hours, 1038 ETH were deposited in Coinbase, and a total of 14611 ETH were deposited in the past two days. [The question is, Trump is about to take office, but his family's encryption project is selling Ethereum. Why is this? ] Fundamental interpretation: In the past two days, there are expectations of Trump taking office, Trump's executive order, and strategic reserves. It would be strange if Bitcoin sentiment did not heat up! But here comes the point. Key points, the rise in the past two days is very confusing. Trump's encryption project has a bit of a covert move. First of all, Brother Feng, I recognize the medium- and long-term upward trend of Bitcoin, but if Trump includes Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve, think about a question, does she like 120,000 Bitcoin or 80,000-70,000 Bitcoin? Think about this rationally! Bitcoin technical disk: Today it rushed to 102,000, but the last secondary high was around 102,600, which was also the weekly high last week! So the pressure here will be heavier! Comprehensive basic + technology: I still maintain the views of the past two days. In the short term, before the market copycat sentiment is obviously started, I will still maintain guerrilla tactics. If Bitcoin cannot break through, there is still a need for adjustment! At least once Bitcoin is cold, the risk of copycats will increase further, so be cautious!
Hold on, don't act on the medium to long term until you see 2
聚元云峰
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Bullish
♛ News: Switzerland's largest state-owned bank PostFinance has announced the launch of Ethereum staking services, becoming the first systemically important bank to offer staking services. The bank plans to expand to staking services for other tokens in the near future, allowing users to earn passive income through staking digital assets. This is another significant move by PostFinance in the digital asset space following the launch of cryptocurrency trading and custody services last year. 【There is a clear divergence in buying and selling in the short term for Ethereum, but Ethereum staking is undoubtedly an important positive factor for Ethereum's liquidity. We look forward to the launch of the ETF's staking feature】
♛ News: Switzerland's largest state-owned bank PostFinance has announced the launch of Ethereum staking services, becoming the first systemically important bank to offer staking services. The bank plans to expand to staking services for other tokens in the near future, allowing users to earn passive income through staking digital assets. This is another significant move by PostFinance in the digital asset space following the launch of cryptocurrency trading and custody services last year. 【There is a clear divergence in buying and selling in the short term for Ethereum, but Ethereum staking is undoubtedly an important positive factor for Ethereum's liquidity. We look forward to the launch of the ETF's staking feature】
1.16 Market Investment Diary: ♥ The inflation data has stimulated the three major U.S. stocks to rise significantly, reversing the one-sided decline since December 5th. Remember, this time the three major U.S. stocks opened with a gap up collectively. Considering the recent trends, this gap will be quickly filled, which means that U.S. stocks will once again face a downturn! ♥ Technical Analysis: The rise in the market yesterday is actually not difficult to understand, and I have analyzed it thoroughly for everyone. There was a bottom divergence on the 4-hour chart, so I provided a clear script. Currently, we have reached the target as expected, with a maximum touch near 100800; Let's take a look at the Bitcoin liquidation chart combined with market technical analysis, The Bitcoin liquidation chart shows a chip at 101800, so the next high point at 102800 will become the last defense line for bears. Generally, it is hard to turn the situation around without significant events! So we draw a comprehensive conclusion: The technical pressure for Bitcoin is around 10500, where we can consider a short position. The stop-loss safe margin is at 102800, which gives about a 2% increase. We must control our leverage to 5 times, maximizing the risk rate to ten points! The target below focuses on executing the Bitcoin trading script, Today's thinking is to continue yesterday's thoughts! If there are quality short-term individual coin updates, we will release interpretations in a timely manner. Please keep an eye on the pinned messages in this group!
#Dry Goods Sharing# Market Intraday Analysis on the 15th ☞ [thanheart] Any trading market will go through a five-stage emotional cycle (Ice Point - Opening - Fermentation - High C - Retreat C). Only by clearly understanding the characteristics of each stage can you navigate with ease — Yunfeng's Message
🐲 As shown in Figure 1, after the large pie quickly rebounded and broke through S1 (95800) after the virtual break of 90,000, it is currently testing the effectiveness of S1. The 4-hour MACD and coin price have formed a bottom divergence, and a short-term rebound may continue, focusing on S2 target pressure! If it cannot break through, it may form another daily high, so pay attention to adjusting risks! I have combined technical analysis with the Bitcoin liquidation chart, which cleverly shows the effectiveness of pressure and support. You can view them in conjunction; the marginal concentration of chips is the pressure point or support point! [rose] Market Spot Emotion ☞ The intraday emotional leader sector is concentrated in the front Ai agents, focusing on virtual protocol ecological tokens. Taking Binance as an example, the gainers list includes Aixbt, Game, etc. Although the market is generally rising, the enthusiasm is not high! Short-term emotional lines suggest moderate participation in the meme sector (Doge currently at 0.36)! ♛ Please refer to the short-term trading behavior of the large pie: Lightly position long orders near 96500, focusing on the 100,000 target, and upon reaching the 100,000 mark, if it cannot break through strongly, consider completing a long-to-short strategy! 【HY risks are relatively high, please treat it rationally, and the above information is for learning reference only】 I will also continue to track the daily short-term scripts!
Today, we will delve into the large-scale suspense film 'The Disappearing Renminbi'
In recent decades, ordinary people have been frugal, working tirelessly day and night to earn money, only to end up in national debt. Just the mortgage borrowers owe 38 trillion, and the total debt is 73 trillion. The common people bought so many houses; the real estate companies should have made money, but it turns out these real estate companies also owe over twenty trillion. They claim they haven't made money because costs are too high and land prices are too high. Surely, local governments must have profited from selling land, yet local governments are also in debt, with over one hundred trillion owed. Many localities can't even pay civil servants' salaries. So, the money must have been earned by the banks? Turns out, we didn't know until we checked. The total liabilities of the banking sector have exceeded 200 trillion. Now, ordinary people are in debt, developers are in debt; where has all this money gone?
♛ On-chain data impact: 1. Over the past 30 days, the net position change of long-term holders remains negative, but the trend seems to be reversing. With the rise in Bitcoin prices, the number of Bitcoins that LTH may have sold in the past 30 days has changed from a low of -827k BTC to -246k BTC. This represents a threefold reduction in selling pressure from such investors, and as Bitcoin prices continue to decline, LTH is becoming increasingly reluctant to sell at current price levels. 【As shown in Figure 1】 Although bullish momentum can only be confirmed when the net position change of LTH returns to the accumulation phase, it still serves as a positive signal for the market. 【Medium and long-term whales show signs of holding back, but short-term downward pressure exists. To confirm a bullish trend, accumulation by bulls is needed】
This wave has broken below 90,000. The market sentiment cycle is currently still in a period of gloom. During the decline, there will be spot buying, so a rebound is quite normal. However, the market sentiment cycle requires a recovery process to transition from recession to activation! Therefore, at present, all sectors, main lines, and leaders are declining! In the short term, we still need to be patient and wait! Of course, if you are out of the market, you can appropriately make light positions, otherwise, just wait patiently! Follow Hu Ge to help you understand the transformation of market sentiment cycles and grasp the mysteries of sector, index, and leader rotations!
♥Analysis of the current status of the big pie (1.12): ♛Influence of on-chain data: 1. Since reaching a peak of 28,000 BTC on November 12, the inflow of Bitcoin on Binance has been steadily declining. In recent days, the average daily inflow has dropped to around 6,000 BTC, significantly lower than the level in November. [This decline suggests that selling pressure is easing, as investors seem to prefer holding Bitcoin rather than selling it] As shown in Figure 1
2. The Altcoin Seasonal Index is now at 45, down 8 points from 53 last week. The index shows that in the past 90 days, about 45 projects in the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market value have outperformed Bitcoin.