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According to Odaily, analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta has highlighted the upcoming release of the U.S. weekly jobless claims data, scheduled for tonight. This data serves as a timely indicator of the labor market's condition and remains one of the most significant weekly economic reports. Initial jobless claims have been maintained within the range of 200,000 to 260,000 since 2022. Although there has been some recent easing in continuing claims, they continue to hover near cyclical highs. Given the recent concerns over economic growth, a surge in claims beyond the upper limit of this range could likely trigger a renewed risk-averse sentiment in the market.

According to Odaily, U.S. Treasury investors are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will shift its focus from curbing inflation to addressing slowing economic growth. This expectation has led to a six-day consecutive rise in U.S. Treasury prices, with yields dropping to their lowest levels this year. Morgan Stanley strategists suggest that if market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy change slightly, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries could fall below 4%. Currently, traders have resumed expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, each by 25 basis points, and anticipate further reductions next year to around 3.65%. The firm believes that if market expectations adjust to a rate of 3.25%, the 10-year Treasury yield could indeed dip below 4%.

According to PANews, the market experienced another turbulent week as U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to impose additional tariffs, potentially diminishing the economic optimism that followed his election. Despite the volatility, gold prices continued to rise, reaching a new high above $2,950. However, questions arise about whether bullish pressure is waning as the market failed to sustain its upward momentum later in the week.Following the release of strong U.S. CPI data, the core PCE price index will be a key focus for the market next week. Important events to watch include: - Monday at 22:30 (UTC+8): U.S. February Dallas Fed Business Activity Index.- Tuesday at 17:20 (UTC+8): Speech by 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan.- Wednesday at 00:45 (UTC+8): Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Barr.- Wednesday at 02:00 (UTC+8): Speech on inflation by 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin.- Thursday at 01:00 (UTC+8): Speech on the economic outlook and housing market by 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic.- Thursday at 21:30 (UTC+8): U.S. Q4 GDP annualized rate revision, Q4 GDP price index revision, January durable goods orders, and weekly initial jobless claims.- Friday at 02:15 (UTC+8): Speech on financial stability by 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harker.- Friday at 04:15 (UTC+8): Speech on economic outlook by 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Harker.- Friday at 21:30 (UTC+8): U.S. January PCE data and personal spending monthly rate.Over the past two months, the robust U.S. economy has reassured investors to continue injecting funds into U.S. stocks despite tariff threats and Federal Reserve tightening policies. However, Friday's decline in U.S. stocks suggests that this "protection" may be limited. For investors who have recently poured record amounts into various risk investments, even initial signs of pressure on U.S. economic growth prospects are enough to trigger sell-offs. With many Federal Reserve officials speaking before the PCE data release next week, they are expected to maintain a cautious tone, emphasizing uncertainty.

According to PANews, Bitcoin continues to experience low volatility, with risk-averse traders suppressing yields, trading volumes, and futures premiums. K33 Research suggests this situation is unlikely to last long. Analyst Vetle Lunde highlights that despite the pro-cryptocurrency stance of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration being a long-term positive factor, current market uncertainty remains. Traders are advised to exercise caution until a clear direction emerges.

Data from K33 Research indicates that Bitcoin's volatility remains low, with a slight weekly decline of 2%. Risk-averse traders have driven yields, volatility, and trading volumes to their lowest levels in months. Lunde notes that while the Trump administration's pro-cryptocurrency policies are beneficial in the long run, short-term uncertainty is dampening market activity.

In a report released on Tuesday, Lunde stated, "Bitcoin's metrics, including trading volume, yields, options premiums, and ETF fund flows, have returned to levels not seen since before the election. In this subdued state, volatility has reached its lowest point in months." He emphasized that 37% of the top 100 U.S. companies have a monthly volatility higher than Bitcoin, a level not seen since October 2023. However, he urged traders to be prepared for sudden market shifts, as low volatility periods typically do not last long.

Lunde added, "Overall risk aversion indicates traders are ready for downward volatility, and the current moderate leverage levels suggest a reduced threat of cascading liquidations."

Analysis of CME Bitcoin futures by Lunde shows that recent futures premiums have fallen below 5%, a rare occurrence. Reviewing data from 2021 to 2025, low premiums often coincide with weak market performance, possibly influenced by the prolonged bear market of 2022.

In futures trading, the basis refers to the price difference between futures and spot prices of the same asset. A premium occurs when futures prices exceed spot prices, indicating bullish sentiment, while a discount suggests a bearish trend. Lunde reiterated that Bitcoin tends to perform best when the basis is strong and advised the market to remain cautious amid current uncertainties.

According to PANews, the recent CPI report indicates a rise in U.S. consumer inflation, prompting U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to acknowledge the need for further efforts to alleviate price pressures in the economy. This has dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, although weak retail sales data has provided some hope. Wall Street's ability to handle dramatic events has been tested once again, with traders proving capable, leaving the overall market largely unaffected. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the upcoming week:On Monday at 22:30 (UTC+8), Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, a 2026 FOMC voting member, will speak. At 23:20 (UTC+8), Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver remarks.On Tuesday at 23:20 (UTC+8), San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, a 2027 FOMC voting member, will address the public.On Thursday at 03:00 (UTC+8), the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting. At 21:30 (UTC+8), data on initial jobless claims for the week ending February 15 and the February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be published. At 22:35 (UTC+8), Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, a 2025 FOMC voting member, will speak.On Friday at 01:05 (UTC+8), St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a 2025 FOMC voting member, will speak at the New York Economic Club. At 22:45 (UTC+8), the preliminary February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will be released. At 23:00 (UTC+8), the final February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the final February one-year inflation rate expectations will be announced.Following Powell's semi-annual testimony and January's inflation data, investors are unlikely to focus heavily on the Fed's January meeting minutes next week. Instead, attention may shift to Friday's February S&P Global PMI data. A PMI below 50 could pressure the dollar and boost gold prices. A February survey by Bank of America of over 50 global fund managers revealed that betting on a stronger dollar remains a crowded trade among interest rate and currency traders. Nearly half of investors still expect the dollar to peak in the first quarter of this year.