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The Fed's emergency meeting may result in a 50bps rate cut amid global market turmoil, including an 18% Bitcoin drop.

Global markets react to Japanese cash and carry trade reversal; the Fed's quick response is crucial to avoid a potential recession.

Analysts expect interest rate cuts to stabilize markets; Goldman Sachs raises U.S. recession probability to 25% from 15%.

A special meeting of the US Federal Reserve, also known as the "Fed," has been called to discuss interest rates. Economists believe it will be 50 basis points (bps) down after the meeting. This is putting the market in danger and particular action must be taken instantly as the Japanese currency has sunk to 13%, falling very near to the Korean and Taiwanese markets. S&P futures have dropped by 4% in the last 5 trading days while Bitcoin did drop by 18%.

https://twitter.com/AbsGMCrypto/status/1820325456396026282

CNBC host Ran Neuner says this is where the Fed comes in. He particularly stressed the following, “This is the moment we have been waiting for: The FED will have to move really fast to avert a meltdown that could turn out to be worse than 2008”. This also reveals the importance of the actions that the Fed takes in setting the economy right.

Market Reactions and Analyst Insights

The catalyst for this financial turmoil is the reversal of the Japanese cash and carry trade, which has sparked panic across global markets. Consequently, the September rate cut probability has surged to 100%, reflecting the urgency of the situation. 

Besides, analysts suggest that an interest rate cut could provide some relief. Historically, Fed rate cuts have stabilized markets, notably during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. “Interest rate cuts saved the housing market in 2007,” noted one analyst.

The Federal Reserve’s swift response is essential to prevent further economic instability. The emergency meeting underscores the gravity of current market conditions and the necessity for immediate action. However, renowned economist and Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff expects a recession if the U.S. Fed cuts interest rates. This prediction adds to the growing concerns among market participants.

Implications for Bitcoin and the Crypto Market

Additionally, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has increased the probability of a U.S. recession in the next year to 25% from 15%. This was reported by its economists led by Jan Hatzius. Despite the heightened risk, the report emphasizes several reasons not to fear an economic slump, even after a notable rise in unemployment. 

The report, released to clients on Sunday, highlights that the overall economy continues to look “fine.” The economists pointed out that there are no major financial imbalances and the U.S. Fed has considerable room to cut interest rates if needed.

Goldman Sachs’ forecasts for Federal Reserve actions are more conservative than those of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup. Hatzius’s team expects the central bank to reduce its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, November, and December.

 “The premise of our forecast is that job growth will recover in August and the FOMC will judge 25bp cuts as a sufficient response to any downside risks,” the Goldman Sachs economists stated. They also noted, “If we are wrong and the August employment report is as weak as the July report, then a 50bps cut would be likely in September.”

Potential Impact on the Crypto Market

These economic projections and prospective rate reductions have an effect on the cryptocurrency market, which includes BTC and other digital assets. U.S. interest rate reductions have historically been positive for riskier assets, such as cryptocurrency. The allure of traditional savings is diminished by lower interest rates, prompting investors to pursue alternative assets such as Bitcoin that provide higher yields.

Furthermore, a common belief is that Bitcoin acts as a hedge against inflation and unstable economies. A strong rate cut by the Federal Reserve would indicate worries about the state of the economy and encourage more investors to turn to Bitcoin as a store of wealth. However, because Schiff and other experts have issued warnings, market watchers continue to exercise caution.