16 Years of Bitcoin Today

1. Oct 2008: Satoshi publishes the whitepaper
2. Jan 2009: Genesis Block mined
3. Oct 2009: First exchange rate published (NewLibertyStandard) at $0.00076
4. Feb 2011: USD parity reached at $1 = 1 BTC
5. Jul 2016: Second halving supply cut at $650
6. Oct 2017: SegWit upgrade activated at $6.47K
7. Aug 2020: MicroStrategy's first treasury buy at $11.8K
8. Sep 2021: El Salvador adopts legal tender at $46.81K
9. Jan 2024: SEC approves first spot ETF at $46K
10. Dec 2024: First pro-btc president elected at $102.9K

What major event will we see in 2025 that posterity will read about? @0xandrewmoh, @0xmughal, @2lambro, @arndxt_xo, @crypto_linn, @cryptogideon_, @cryptomanran, @dynamo_patrick, @hmalviya9, @jake_pahor, @krybharat, @milesdeutscher, @rektdiomedes, @saushank_, @the_smart_ape, @thedefiplug

Hot take:

All the gen ai to frontend code apps are slop factories.

v0, cursor, replit, rollout, bolt, and lovable are

mildly impressive but more or less just sloppity slop.

Tasteful designers still mogg ai.

Meta has 2x the engineers of the entire crypto industry.

Crypto = 23,613
Meta = ~40,000

We are still so early.

Digital Assets Outlook 2025 Franklin Templeton @FTI_US

> AI Agents
> DePin
> Stablecoins
> Favorable regulation
> ETFs
> DeFi

A normie friend was dumbstruck when

I explained how @pumpdotfun coins are further

from unregistered securities than infra tokens.

Memecoins fail 3 out of 4 prongs of the Howey Test.
1. A memecoin is not a common enterprise: There's no veil of utility, potential revenues, or cashflows. It's literally just a meme. The fortunes of the investors are not linked to each other or to the success of the enterprise as a whole.

2. There's no efforts of others: With a fair launch, there can be no insiders. There are only open market participants. No team or promoters exist. No profits are generated primarily through the efforts of a promoter or a third party.

3. There's almost no expectation of profit: 99% of memecoins lose money. They're just fun. Any expectation of profit is speculative and incidental, not intrinsic to the token's purpose.

4. Investment of Money: This is the only prong of the Howey Test that memecoins pass, as there must be an investment of money or other tangible value.

So pump coins fail 3/4 criteria of the test.

Insanely ironic how community launched memecoins with no fake utility are more legally compliant than the BS high-fdv low-float infra tokens that raise 100s of millions of dollars before launch.

56% of all Bitcoin is mined using sustainable energy

This chart is trending upwards monotonically

One-third of all Nobel Prize winners came from AI research

When will we see the first crypto researcher win a Nobel Prize?

Satoshi winning Nobel Prizes for Economics and Peace doesn’t seem out of the question.

DeSci researchers could win in Medicine, Physics, or Chemistry.

Literature is the only one that seems unassailable to crypto research—for now.

Modernity is a series of humblings for humanity:

1. Copernican Revolution: Our planet—our home—is nothing special, just one among many.

2. Darwinian Evolution: Our biology—our essence—is nothing special, just another slightly smarter ape.

3. AGI Revolution: Our intelligence—our defining trait—is nothing special, just a repeatable mechanistic process.

A market should be controlled by its participants not the house.

We now have the tools to implement this for all markets at scale.

AI Agents combined with non-custodial cryptographic rails herald massive changes for 2025.

AI Usage December 2024

@vercel v0 for front end
@cursor_ai for back end
@grok for brainrot translation
@ChatGPTapp for hard math and research
@perplexity_ai for search

@MSFTCopilot for nothing

It's so obvious when founders use their own product.

Steve Huffman wrote about how r/stopdrinking helped him personally.

$RDDT is up 252% since this prospectus.

@Reddit's r/stopdrinking community is awesome btw.

Just talked to a super sharp tech investor friend.

He's a VP at a $10B fund based in SF.

He's never heard of @Polymarket.

We are still so early.

Will @HyperliquidX's performance and throughput degrade significantly as the no of validators increases from 4 to 16 and they decentralize?

India had more IPOs than US & China combined in 2024

IPOs in 2024:
- India: 327
- USA: 183
- China: 69

IPO Proceeds:
- USA: $32.8 billion
- India: $19.9 billion
- China: $8.9 billion

Aggregate Market Cap at listing:
- USA: ~$218.7 billion
- India: ~$132.7 billion
- China: ~$59.3 billion

Here's Coinbase's Outlook for 2025

You can ask chatGPT for a generic summary.

I've only included stats that were net-new to us.

I'll cover:
Most Profitable Consumer apps, Central Bank Liquidity, Asset Correlations, US Congress, Longterm : Short-term holders, etc.

A thread:

BTC probability distribution prediction by May 2025:

1. P(10) = $69k
2. P(45) = range between $95k and $115k
3. P(35) = $120k-$130k
4. P(10) = probability $140k+

Bitcoin and Macro Outlook post FOMC Meeting

I'll cover
1. Federal Reserve Stance
2. Market Reaction
3. Volatility Surge
4. US Liquidity Trends
5. Bitcoin Price Action

1. Federal Reserve Stance:
- Jpow signaled slower rate cuts, forecasting 1-2 reductions in 2025.
- Policy influenced by persistent inflation at 3% and steady employment data.

2. Market Reaction:
- S&P 500 dropped 3%.
- Bitcoin declined by 6%.
- 10-year Treasury yields broke out, suggesting mid-term challenges for risk assets.

3. Volatility Surge:
- VIX index experienced its largest single-day increase since February 2018.
- Historically big single day VIX increase has signaled potential short-term buying opportunities despite mid-term uncertainties.

4. U.S. Liquidity Trends:
- US liquidity is in a substantial downtrend now, and has been for the last weeks.
- Risk of over tightening by the Fed and Treasury by monetary and interest rates could create substantial headwinds, if jobs were to slow.

5. Bitcoin Price Action:
- Rose from $75K to $102K before consolidating around $100K.
- Still optimistic for 2025 but looks like we're closing in on the cyclical top

h/t @caprioleio for the great work on the newsletter

I wonder where you see $BTC going in 2025?
@0xandrewmoh, @0xmughal, @2lambro, @ape_rture, @arndxt_xo, @crypto_linn, @cryptogideon_, @cryptomanran, @defiminty, @dynamo_patrick, @flowslikeosmo, @hmalviya9, @jake_pahor, @krybharat, @milesdeutscher, @rektdiomedes, @the_smart_ape, @thedefiplug

2025 @MessariCrypto Analyst Picks Takeaways

1. Most Common Tokens by Category
2. Most Common Holdings
3. DeFi Evolution
4. Bitcoin Ecosystem
5. Memecoins
6. Infrastructure

Most Common Tokens by Category
Winners:
- HYPE (6 mentions)
- GOAT, VIRTUAL, SOL (4 mentions each)
- PEPE, BTC, AIXBT (3 mentions each)
Losers:
- ETH (7 mentions) - notably bearish sentiment
- FRIEND (3 mentions)
- ADA (2 mentions)

Most Common Holdings
- PEPE (8 mentions)
- BTC (6 mentions)
- ETH, HYPE, ai16z (5 mentions each)
- SOL, FTM (4 mentions each)

AI Integration
- AI Agents and infrastructure
- AI x Gaming collaborations
- AI art NFTs
- Bittensor Subnets

DeFi Evolution
- Intents-based DeFi
- DeFi renaissance
- Novel stablecoin designs
- Payment solutions with RWAs

Bitcoin Ecosystem
- Bitcoin programmability
- Rare Sats
- Ordinals
- Runes
- Bitcoin-based layers

Memecoins
- Continued prominence of major memes (DOGE, SHIB, PEPE)
- New memecoin projects
- Focus on community-driven tokens

Infrastructure
- Cross-chain liquidity
- Interoperability solutions
- ZK technology for scaling
- Modular ecosystem development

Wonder what these chads think?
@0xandrewmoh, @0xmughal, @2lambro, @ape_rture, @arndxt_xo, @crypto_linn, @cryptogideon_, @cryptomanran, @defiminty, @dynamo_patrick, @flowslikeosmo, @hmalviya9, @jake_pahor, @krybharat, @milesdeutscher, @rektdiomedes, @the_smart_ape, @thedefiplug

BTC Energy value surpasses $100k for the first time ever

Some argue that the true value of a bitcoin is not what

buyers are willing to pay for it but the price of the raw

joules of electricity required to mine the network.

Give me

- math
- caffeine
- paper and ink
- airplane mode
- an AI assistant
- noise cancellation

and I'll show you what happiness is really about.