Full Bull Market or Bitcoin's Final Frenzy? Here are my views:
1. The relationship between ETH and altcoins: The movements of ETH and the altcoin index are closely related.
If ETH cannot hold above 2820, it may indicate that Bitcoin is experiencing its final frenzy.
If Bitcoin hits a new high, there will be a weekly top divergence, which will be a disastrous signal.
Once Bitcoin pulls back, altcoins may experience further overselling. However, I believe altcoins will gradually start to rebound or resist declines, especially next year when the ETH exchange rate stabilizes and rebounds, the trapped altcoins will also see hope.
2. Key levels for ETH: If ETH can successfully hold above 2820, then the opportunity for altcoin performance will come.
Before that, it is only suitable to participate in trading in the short term.
After Bitcoin broke 73,600, a wave of crazy increases appeared in the meme coins in the market, but there is a problem: other altcoins did not rise along with it.
If altcoins other than meme coins still cannot rise within a week, the market may experience severe fluctuations due to a correction in Bitcoin.
This year's market situation is indeed precarious, and the washout is very intense.
Everyone must remember: if altcoins do not rise within a week, evacuate as soon as possible! Because the attention of the market makers is mainly focused on Bitcoin, once Bitcoin experiences a crash, the decline of altcoins could be very severe.
Assuming Bitcoin corrects by 20%, the correction of altcoins could exceed 70%. In fact, this wave of market can be seen as a false bull market, or just a bull market given to Bitcoin by the market makers.
In any case, the opportunities to make money like in 2021 have greatly decreased, because market makers only need to manipulate Bitcoin's ups and downs throughout the year to obtain considerable profits.
If Ethereum wants to start a bull market, $2700 and $2900 are two key resistance levels. The current trend remains upward, and if it can successfully break through these two pressure levels, a golden cross may also appear on the weekly chart.
Last week's daily close was near $2700, and many are chasing the breakout, feeling that this is not an issue.
If it breaks through $2700 again, the likelihood of continuing to rise will be greater than last week.
In Heyue Market, those who face liquidation and significant losses usually share the following common characteristics. If you do not overcome these issues, you will continue to incur losses!
1. Heavy trading positions (30%~50% of capital).
2. Stubbornly refusing to acknowledge mistakes (always expecting price corrections).
3. Not setting stop-losses, habitually closing positions manually, leading to an inability to act promptly in extreme market conditions.
Some people believe that trading with a 10% position is too small, and the profits are insufficient. However, I suggest that you should never expect to get rich overnight. Steady and methodical, as long as you can achieve more than 10% returns on your account daily, it will accumulate to a considerable amount over a month.
Heavy trading positions are the main reason for liquidation; using a high leverage ratio with heavy hands significantly reduces risk tolerance. Eager to achieve results will only lead to worse outcomes.
Choose light positions and small amounts, follow the trend; slow and steady, small gains will add up.
Once your account funds double, you can withdraw your principal. At that time, your mindset will be more open, and your profit speed will significantly increase.
Today, it is recommended to reduce 60% of long positions in batches at high levels, using about 20% of long positions to short at highs (profit-taking target for long positions). For the spot with the largest increase, sell 10%.
It is expected that there will be a pullback on Friday and Saturday, at which time you can replenish positions at lower prices.
By next Tuesday and Wednesday, reduce 80% of long positions and sell 25% of the spot, then replenish short positions, keeping the same position as today, but doubling it.
In principle, take profits at highs, promptly lock in realized profits, and avoid regret from profit drawdown when prices fall.
It is expected that multiple altcoins will experience short-term increases in the near future. It is recommended to timely switch positions or appropriately reduce positions after reaching the expected increase.
Currently, the stagnation of altcoins indicates that market liquidity is not strong, thus the sustainability of altcoin increases may be limited.
Recommended Coins for Today:
It is suggested to pay attention to GOAT and ENA. These two coins have a high probability of upward continuation on the 4-hour level and may perform well in the short term.
Daily Trend: Currently forming a strong bullish candlestick with a longer upper shadow and a shorter lower shadow. Trading volume is flat compared to the previous day, indicating an upward trend.
Technical Indicators:
-MA30 line begins to stabilize, indicating that the downtrend is weakening.
MACD is close to the zero axis; if today closes with a bullish candlestick, a golden cross may form.
Short-term Outlook: A slight pullback is expected, with a retest near the daily MA30 line (around 34.9) as a good entry point for short-term trades.
Long-term Outlook: The inscription market typically lags behind Bitcoin; it is advisable to patiently wait for Bitcoin to reach new highs.
Is the Altcoin Season Approaching? What Signals are Worth Noticing?
Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been continuously rising, which seems to indicate that the "Altcoin Season" is not far off.
Although the 2024 bull market faced resistance in March, the altcoin market has been declining since then. However, some key indicators suggest that the recent rebound may signal significant changes ahead.
Are altcoins about to take off?
From a technical perspective, the altcoin market shows a certain level of resilience, currently remaining above the ascending trend line of TOTAL2. TOTAL2 represents the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin since the bull market of 2017.
The market value of altcoins is testing a long-term trend line support that has been strong for the past eight years.
A second touch on this long-standing support line is viewed as a bullish signal, indicating that the downtrend may be weakening. Increasing investments at current price levels could drive altcoin prices higher.
If the price of Bitcoin can stabilize above this level, while TOTAL2 also remains above the long-term trend line support, it may indicate that the market is set for a significant surge.
When will the spring of altcoins come, especially meme coins?
Bitcoin currently shows momentum to break new highs, and once it does, it is expected to trigger a comprehensive improvement in market sentiment.
Ethereum demonstrates strong resilience and is currently in a relatively oversold state. Vitalik Buterin's statements are also gradually increasing; once Ethereum, this 'ancient true god,' revives, meme coins in the ETH ecosystem are expected to take off quickly, which will stimulate the emotions of whales who made profits or got trapped in the last bull market.
With the rise in the market capitalization of the crypto market, BTC enters a low-frequency oscillation phase after reaching new highs. While sentiment stabilizes, the dominance of mainstream coins may decline, leading to a flow of funds into altcoins.
These conditions will lay the foundation for the spring of altcoins.
Holders patiently await; next spring may bring new opportunities.
Currently at the daily resistance level of 0.12-0.13 during the second impact. If it breaks through this price level, there may be a good market trend; if it fails to break through, it may need to retrace and consolidate to gather strength. The outlook for this meme coin is promising.
Doge
It has currently escaped the downtrend, with the daily chart showing a bullish arrangement. Just hold on. People
If there is a significant rise before the election, consider taking appropriate profits to guard against market reactions after good news lands.
Wen
From the perspective of the larger cycle, a breakout pattern has formed. If it can stabilize around 0.00013, a wave of upward movement is expected, with support around 0.00011.
Pizza
You might consider bottom fishing, but now is not the best time. It has fallen below historical lows, and currently lacks reference points. The four-hour chart shows bearish pressure; it is recommended to wait for signs of stabilization before entering to increase safety.
Aave's current trading price is approximately $153, showing signs of a potential breakout. Technical indicators suggest the market is consolidating, with a market capitalization of $224 billion and a circulating supply of 14.96 million AAVE, out of a total supply of 16 million.
According to the Bollinger Bands analysis, the market is tightening, with the upper band at $164.65 and the lower band at $138.93, indicating a price movement is imminent.
The RSI indicator shows a current value of 50.28, in a neutral state, suggesting the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for future bullish trends, especially with increased demand.
If Aave can break through the resistance level of $155, it may further challenge the levels of $165 and $179, boosting bullish sentiment.
Once a sustained break above $165 occurs, it will confirm an upward trend, attracting more traders into a bullish market.
On the other hand, if Aave falls below the support level of $147, it may test the next support level of $136, which is close to the lower Bollinger Band. Strong buying demand at this level may support a rebound, but if broken, it could bring more downward pressure.
In summary, we focus on the following resistance levels: $155, $165, $179; support levels are $147, $136, $120.
To put it bluntly, the funds in the circle are still in pvp, flowing here and there.
Slowly, the money flows into the hands of a few people. It is impossible for them to take over some large-scale garbage. They might as well open a plate by themselves or withdraw cash and leave.
Now the safer way is to wait for the big cake to break through, create room for growth, and wait for subsequent capital diversion. Look for sector rotation from the top 20 of the growth list. It is impossible for all of them to rise at once.
The flow of the second-level sector is much slower than that of the first level. Don't be afraid of no opportunities. Generally, a leader enters the growth list, and then a few younger brothers enter the top 20 of the growth list. Later, they enter the growth list together, and then Game over. Change to the next sector.
Since the 49,000 point mark, the market has shown an upward trend, so it is advised that investors avoid short selling. Aligning with the market trend can more effectively achieve profits.
My analysis method is to think from a different perspective, considering how I would make decisions as the market leader between maximizing benefits and minimizing resistance.
From the bottom of 49,000 points to the re-test of 62,000 points, I believe this process is relatively accurate.
When the market breaks through 73,000 points, the market sentiment for altcoins will gradually improve, and investors will start to catch up.
Since 49,000 points, the market has been in an upward trend, and it is recommended not to short. Only by following the trend can one better profit.
My analysis method is to think from a different perspective, imagining if I were the market maker, how I would make decisions between maximizing profit and minimizing resistance.
From the bottom of 49,000 to the judgment of the second bottom at 62,000, I believe these are relatively accurate.
When the market breaks through 73,000 points, the sentiment for altcoins will gradually warm up, and everyone will start to catch up.
The performance of the inscription market seems to be changing.
Since the end of September, the overall inscription field has been relatively weak, especially the leading inscription ORDI, which has continued to decline in price relative to BTC since September 27.
However, on October 25, ORDI/BTC saw a strong rebound after testing the supply line, and the price of ORDI also rose accordingly.
This indicates that ORDI may be about to end its weak situation and start a strong upward trend. It is expected that under the leadership of ORDI, other projects in the inscription track, such as SATS and RATS, will also perform well in the coming period.
ETH weekly level has issued a buy signal, and there is no need to follow the crowd in the face of FUD. The Wyckoff indicator has consistently performed stably in the trend market of larger cycles.
Currently, the ETH weekly has issued a buy signal, and we can refer to the indicator signals and their increases in historical trend markets:
- January 2020: Up 111.98%
- April 2020: Up 2657.77%
- August 2021: Up 126.37%
- December 2021: Sell signal -78%
- November 2023: Up 128.06%
So, by October 2024, how much can this wave of the market increase? A minimum target of 100% doesn't seem high, right?
The big pancake and the second pancake are still in a state of fluctuation, it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of altcoins. The altcoin market can be observed from two aspects:
1. Gaming sector: Most of the tokens launched by Anan since the end of last year belong to the gaming sector. However, in the first wave of altcoin行情 at the beginning of the year, the gaming sector hardly performed. After more than half a year of adjustment, some projects are gradually warming up, and after nearly a 90% correction, the market is starting to rebound slightly.
2. MEME sector: Initially speculating on various animals like frogs, hippos, BOME, etc., then speculating on election-related PEOPLE, and now entering the AI + MEME phase, the MEME concept is likely to run through the entire cycle.
Some clever altcoins are beginning to transform into MEME launch platforms, such as APE mimicking the routes of SUI and APT, driving up the price of B, as well as DYDX and BAKE, which will also receive dividends in the future.
The current strategy could be to follow the market, select some relatively stable large-cap MEME, or blue-chip DEX-type projects, or pay attention to short-term opportunities that may surge, summarizing with the news. If you don't want to switch, don't want to operate, then after Bitcoin hits a new high, observing the performance of other projects is also a good choice.
In addition to the MEME sector, the performance of public chains is also good, with Solana being the absolute leader, one of the few projects that can follow when Bitcoin rises.
TIA, ICP, TRON, and ADA also have relatively stable performance, while most other altcoins are in a downtrend.
In summary, the market has not yet entered a full-fledged altcoin bull market, but I still expect a big行情 in Q4, let's look forward to it together.
1. Ethereum is facing trend resistance, with significant capital differentiation in altcoins, and the main forces are showing great caution towards market fluctuations.
2. Institutional funds for Bitcoin are concentrated in trading, absorbing existing capital, and from the data, Bitcoin's capital activity and concentration are the highest.
3. The sustainability of capital effects is relatively weak, with funds in the secondary market gradually flowing to the primary market, while the institutional MEME market has ignited local enthusiasm in the primary market.
I have always felt that the fate of retail investors has been predetermined from the very beginning.
Why is that?
Because with smaller capital, it is often difficult to resist the temptation of high returns, and these high returns usually appear in low market cap projects, also known as "on-chain shitcoins."
At this stage, the gamble is on a token's potential to rise from tens of thousands to millions of dollars in market value, or even over a hundred million.
However, the reality is that the probability of getting rich quickly might only be 1%, or even 0.1%.
Choosing one out of many memes that could lead to wealth is no easy task. Assume you are a blockchain expert, calculating your chances of getting rich at 20% when you enter; the 80% risk of going to zero is the norm. In reality, your chances of achieving returns of dozens of times are probably only 10%. Most people actually choose to take profits when the token rises 2-3 times.
Therefore, the actual situation for participating at this stage is: with a mindset of extremely high risk, the returns achieved are comparable to selling cabbage.
In other words, you take on an 80% risk of going to zero, and the final actual return is only 2-3 times (even when encountering a “golden dog,” 80% of people cannot hold on until the end).