意斯
两年交易员，比特币分析
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The market is not good today, and it may be worse tomorrow. The market is experiencing repeated declines and fluctuations. It is expected that there may be a slight rise next Monday, followed by continued declines, with the bottoming out possibly ending next Friday.
There are generally several types of trends each month:
1. One-sided big rise
2. One-sided big drop
3. Rise first then drop
4. Drop first then rise
5. Rise first then drop, big rise at the end
6. Drop first then rise, big drop at the end
This month, the first half may be a decline, with a higher probability of rising in the second half. Currently, there are no signs of a one-sided big drop; the market is only experiencing repeated fluctuations and declines, without a crash.
There are generally several types of trends each month:
1. One-sided big rise
2. One-sided big drop
3. Rise first then drop
4. Drop first then rise
5. Rise first then drop, big rise at the end
6. Drop first then rise, big drop at the end
This month, the first half may be a decline, with a higher probability of rising in the second half. Currently, there are no signs of a one-sided big drop; the market is only experiencing repeated fluctuations and declines, without a crash.
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The latest inflation data has been released, and the results are concerning. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) exceeded expectations, which is generally seen as bad news. Meanwhile, the core CPI also came in above expectations, similarly bringing negative impacts. According to economic analysis, if the CPI and core CPI are below expectations, they are usually seen as positive, while being above expectations is seen as negative. If the data aligns with expectations, it has little impact on the market. This time, the data has clearly put pressure on market sentiment.
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Tonight will be a crucial night, the outcome hinges on this! The U.S. Department of Labor will release the latest inflation data at 9:30 PM tonight. The market expects the overall CPI to remain unchanged, but the core CPI may drop to 3.1%. Currently, the Cleveland Fed's forecast shows a CPI of 2.85% and a core CPI of 3.13%, which is slightly optimistic but for reference only.
The current analysis of the candlestick chart is not very meaningful; as long as the CPI data falls below expectations, the price of cryptocurrencies is likely to rise rapidly. If the CPI drops by 0.2%, BTC could even surge by 10%, potentially marking the start of a bull market. Conversely, if the data is above expectations, the market may decline, but since the market has already partially absorbed the expectations of high inflation recently, the decline may be relatively small, estimated around 2-3%. Therefore, the rise or fall of cryptocurrency prices tonight will mainly depend on the CPI data, rather than technical analysis.
Hope everything goes smoothly, the outcome hinges on this!
The current analysis of the candlestick chart is not very meaningful; as long as the CPI data falls below expectations, the price of cryptocurrencies is likely to rise rapidly. If the CPI drops by 0.2%, BTC could even surge by 10%, potentially marking the start of a bull market. Conversely, if the data is above expectations, the market may decline, but since the market has already partially absorbed the expectations of high inflation recently, the decline may be relatively small, estimated around 2-3%. Therefore, the rise or fall of cryptocurrency prices tonight will mainly depend on the CPI data, rather than technical analysis.
Hope everything goes smoothly, the outcome hinges on this!
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