浪荡情侠-Orz
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Third brother, I've already lost quite a bit, I've cut my losses, and I want to keep some principal to buy the dip in a bear market.
Slow rise and sudden fall, life is so difficult for people in the cryptocurrency circle.
The cryptocurrency world is so difficult.
In fact, the cryptocurrency world is like this most of the time. It is very difficult and there are only a few investors who can survive for a long time.
Every time this time comes, Thirteen is actually quite excited, because I know this is the best opportunity to enter the market.
Most people are now so panicked that they have decided to quit investing. They have no interest in investing and just want to cut their losses and be done with it.
The process is indeed painful. As a person in the cryptocurrency circle, if you want to make money in this circle, you must endure this pain.
After all, painful days are the majority in the cryptocurrency world.
In fact, the cryptocurrency world is like this most of the time. It is very difficult and there are only a few investors who can survive for a long time.
Every time this time comes, Thirteen is actually quite excited, because I know this is the best opportunity to enter the market.
Most people are now so panicked that they have decided to quit investing. They have no interest in investing and just want to cut their losses and be done with it.
The process is indeed painful. As a person in the cryptocurrency circle, if you want to make money in this circle, you must endure this pain.
After all, painful days are the majority in the cryptocurrency world.
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What does minus thirteen degrees mean to you😀
Thoughts on the overall trend this year and the outlook and views on the next halving cycle
I would like to share my personal thoughts and conclusions on the overall trend and direction from this year to next year, as well as my outlook and views on the next halving cycle, for reference only.
After 12.18, the market's focus basically tilted towards information, subject to the changes in Trump's new policy. Except for BTC, the bull market of most currencies has indeed ended in the short term. Since the expectation of interest rate cuts in March is extremely low, there is no meeting in April, and May or June is basically the first interest rate cut this year, it is determined that February to April is a vacuum period of shocks, which will be repeatedly up and down. The process is more painful, but risks and opportunities coexist. This period is also the implementation and promotion period of Trump's new policy of tariffs, crypto market supervision and other policies. These are transmitted to the market, and there are large fluctuations in the short term. The bottom pattern on the current market may be basically the same as the trend of the period from August 5 to November 5 last year. The daily line needs to re-build the bottom step by step to reach a low point, and restart the next wave of market when the expectation of the next interest rate cut heats up. Therefore, especially in February and March, the currency market may still have a large adjustment.
After 12.18, the market's focus basically tilted towards information, subject to the changes in Trump's new policy. Except for BTC, the bull market of most currencies has indeed ended in the short term. Since the expectation of interest rate cuts in March is extremely low, there is no meeting in April, and May or June is basically the first interest rate cut this year, it is determined that February to April is a vacuum period of shocks, which will be repeatedly up and down. The process is more painful, but risks and opportunities coexist. This period is also the implementation and promotion period of Trump's new policy of tariffs, crypto market supervision and other policies. These are transmitted to the market, and there are large fluctuations in the short term. The bottom pattern on the current market may be basically the same as the trend of the period from August 5 to November 5 last year. The daily line needs to re-build the bottom step by step to reach a low point, and restart the next wave of market when the expectation of the next interest rate cut heats up. Therefore, especially in February and March, the currency market may still have a large adjustment.
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Brother Bi, today's deposit was restricted by risk control. Uncle came over to understand the situation in person. What risks are there afterwards? Will the card be prohibited from trading?
$ETH
The overall direction of ETH belongs to the end of the pullback, and if it goes down further, the space is not very large.
From the overall trend, the complete wave of 4h has finished, and it has retraced to the 1.618 level, which is the previously mentioned 2928. Whether the daily pullback can go down further is debatable; even if it continues down, it would only be a few hundred points.
Both the 4h and daily charts are generally below the middle track, which is not a big issue. The daily position has retraced to the 0.816 level, and the space for further decline is limited. Just wait slowly for a bounce back after buying at 2900.
Chart 1 shows the 4h pattern, which is approaching the middle track position, having retraced to the 1.618 level at most. Chart 2 shows the daily pattern, having retraced to 0.816, with limited space at the 1.0 level, which is not necessary to focus on.
Chasing highs and cutting losses is a major taboo; grasping the trend is key. The first target point is likely to be reached, while the probability of the second target point is lower. If you want significant gains, you must take big risks. Technical analysis only increases the probability of estimating trends; the key is still accurately capturing the entry point.
<币安王牌KOL专属群（笔谈）>
The overall direction of ETH belongs to the end of the pullback, and if it goes down further, the space is not very large.
From the overall trend, the complete wave of 4h has finished, and it has retraced to the 1.618 level, which is the previously mentioned 2928. Whether the daily pullback can go down further is debatable; even if it continues down, it would only be a few hundred points.
Both the 4h and daily charts are generally below the middle track, which is not a big issue. The daily position has retraced to the 0.816 level, and the space for further decline is limited. Just wait slowly for a bounce back after buying at 2900.
Chart 1 shows the 4h pattern, which is approaching the middle track position, having retraced to the 1.618 level at most. Chart 2 shows the daily pattern, having retraced to 0.816, with limited space at the 1.0 level, which is not necessary to focus on.
Chasing highs and cutting losses is a major taboo; grasping the trend is key. The first target point is likely to be reached, while the probability of the second target point is lower. If you want significant gains, you must take big risks. Technical analysis only increases the probability of estimating trends; the key is still accurately capturing the entry point.
<币安王牌KOL专属群（笔谈）>
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Every day I have to look at several hours of square information, but your psychological massage is the one I trust the most.
Trump is about to take office, more good news is coming, and the main force is washing the market in advance.
This wave of retracement has plunged the market into panic.
In fact, anyone facing a market crash would panic, including Shisan, but apart from panicking about the ultraviolet, Shisan is more troubled by how to buy at the bottom.
Most people in the market are very panicked, all waiting for the lowest point to appear.
Generally, for retail investors, when the market crashes, they are almost afraid to enter and buy at the bottom.
Because of fear, they always want to wait until the lowest point.
You didn't dare to buy at 3100 Ethereum, and you still don't dare at 2800 Ethereum.
Therefore, when encountering a market retracement in a bull market, do not deliberately pursue buying at the absolute bottom, because that is impossible.
In fact, anyone facing a market crash would panic, including Shisan, but apart from panicking about the ultraviolet, Shisan is more troubled by how to buy at the bottom.
Most people in the market are very panicked, all waiting for the lowest point to appear.
Generally, for retail investors, when the market crashes, they are almost afraid to enter and buy at the bottom.
Because of fear, they always want to wait until the lowest point.
You didn't dare to buy at 3100 Ethereum, and you still don't dare at 2800 Ethereum.
Therefore, when encountering a market retracement in a bull market, do not deliberately pursue buying at the absolute bottom, because that is impossible.
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Ripple is strong, not dropping much😁
Every correction of Bitcoin and Ethereum in December is an opportunity to increase positions
I have been infected with the flu and now feel extremely uncomfortable. Seeing this market makes me feel bad for everyone.
However, I am quite happy because I can increase my position at a low cost again.
Just woke up and saw that Bitcoin has dropped below 100,000. Today I told everyone that it might be hard to see Bitcoin below 100,000 in 25 years.
Now is actually a good time to enter the market.
Internally, I have already given a clear hint.
I hope everyone can be a little bolder. After all, what is there to worry about in a bull market?
We are spot trading, focusing on valuable coins. Even if the market continues to fall, what can be done? If there is no money to bottom fish, we can just delete the app for a while and come back later.
However, I am quite happy because I can increase my position at a low cost again.
Just woke up and saw that Bitcoin has dropped below 100,000. Today I told everyone that it might be hard to see Bitcoin below 100,000 in 25 years.
Now is actually a good time to enter the market.
Internally, I have already given a clear hint.
I hope everyone can be a little bolder. After all, what is there to worry about in a bull market?
We are spot trading, focusing on valuable coins. Even if the market continues to fall, what can be done? If there is no money to bottom fish, we can just delete the app for a while and come back later.
See original
Callback means buying, spot buying without thinking
This wave of correction was unpredictable; no one knew that despite the interest rate cut being a favorable signal, it quickly turned bearish due to old Powell's remarks. There’s no need to worry; we are in a bull market, and at this time, the Thirteen should step up to recharge everyone’s faith.
However, this correction has the following reasons, and I hope everyone keeps them in mind:
① The Fed's hawkish statements.
Through the dot plot and Powell's remarks, there is only a 50 basis point rate cut expectation for 2025. The Fed has clearly stated that it will lean towards fewer rate cuts to control inflation. If there are signs of inflation resurfacing, there may even be a possibility of no rate cuts.
Additionally, regarding Bitcoin reserves, the Fed has clearly stated that it undoubtedly holds Bitcoin.
This reason is the trigger for this correction.
② A healthy correction is needed after a market peak.
On the 17th, Bitcoin reached a historical high of 108,000, and the market began a 5% correction the next day, triggering panic in the market, creating a stampede effect that exacerbated the decline.
With the market dominated by bullish sentiment, a correction is needed to clear leverage.
Global capital markets have all fallen into passivity, especially the U.S. stock market, which has shown a downturn after continuous rises.
③ The dealer's layout.
In fact, a deep correction now has a positive effect on the market; it is very timely. This correction can release the market's bearish sentiment before Trump takes office.
The dealer needs to drive retail investors out of the market before pulling up again, and the only way to do that is to crash the market. So we see that yesterday, the ETF has turned from inflow to outflow.
Retail panic is the effect the dealer hopes to see. I hope everyone can hold their spot positions steady; there’s no need to worry; as long as the bull market is still here, we will all make money.
④ Stay away from charlatans.
Now there are a bunch of so-called experts predicting the market; some have gotten it right this time. You need to make your own judgment on what basis they are making their predictions. If we look purely from a technical perspective, luck plays a large part. At this time, do not get too enamored with technical analysis. You should make a comprehensive judgment based on market sentiment, fundamentals, news, and data.
I hope everyone maintains independent thinking, stays away from high-risk investments, and avoids charlatans.
However, this correction has the following reasons, and I hope everyone keeps them in mind:
① The Fed's hawkish statements.
Through the dot plot and Powell's remarks, there is only a 50 basis point rate cut expectation for 2025. The Fed has clearly stated that it will lean towards fewer rate cuts to control inflation. If there are signs of inflation resurfacing, there may even be a possibility of no rate cuts.
Additionally, regarding Bitcoin reserves, the Fed has clearly stated that it undoubtedly holds Bitcoin.
This reason is the trigger for this correction.
② A healthy correction is needed after a market peak.
On the 17th, Bitcoin reached a historical high of 108,000, and the market began a 5% correction the next day, triggering panic in the market, creating a stampede effect that exacerbated the decline.
With the market dominated by bullish sentiment, a correction is needed to clear leverage.
Global capital markets have all fallen into passivity, especially the U.S. stock market, which has shown a downturn after continuous rises.
③ The dealer's layout.
In fact, a deep correction now has a positive effect on the market; it is very timely. This correction can release the market's bearish sentiment before Trump takes office.
The dealer needs to drive retail investors out of the market before pulling up again, and the only way to do that is to crash the market. So we see that yesterday, the ETF has turned from inflow to outflow.
Retail panic is the effect the dealer hopes to see. I hope everyone can hold their spot positions steady; there’s no need to worry; as long as the bull market is still here, we will all make money.
④ Stay away from charlatans.
Now there are a bunch of so-called experts predicting the market; some have gotten it right this time. You need to make your own judgment on what basis they are making their predictions. If we look purely from a technical perspective, luck plays a large part. At this time, do not get too enamored with technical analysis. You should make a comprehensive judgment based on market sentiment, fundamentals, news, and data.
I hope everyone maintains independent thinking, stays away from high-risk investments, and avoids charlatans.