Let's talk about Ethereum. ETH has support around 3400. On Friday, it closed with a long lower shadow small bullish candle on high volume, but yesterday it dropped on lower volume, showing insufficient support and is currently consolidating. Looking ahead, I am bearish.
How much lower can it go? On the daily chart, ETH has two support levels at 3400 and 3100. Currently, it is oscillating around 3400. If nothing unexpected happens, it may break below 3300 today, which would indicate a second break below and signal the end of support here, leading to further declines. The reason I say it will continue to decline is that the daily MACD has formed a golden cross above the zero line and is probing downwards. When the slow line crosses the zero line, that indicates the second bearish signal, and it suggests a drop to around 3100. However, the long lower shadow candle on Friday has already touched 3100, indicating strong selling pressure from the market makers. Thus, the second bearish phase is likely to go well below 3100.
Looking further down, regardless of whether it’s on the daily or weekly chart, Ethereum's major support level is at 2800. In this bull market, Ethereum did not rally much and even started to drop when it reached 3500. It was only due to Trump's presidency that it was pushed up to 4000.
So, what is the trend for Ethereum? The next year or two will be a breakout year for Ethereum and altcoins, with various positive news following one after another. Currently, the MACD above zero indicates it may break below and drop back to around 2800-3000, which is a strong support level for Ethereum. I want to emphasize once again, this is important: between 2800 and 3000 for Ethereum, no matter how much you want to invest, you must buy. This is everyone’s last opportunity to get on board.
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Strategy for December 22: If BTC closes with a doji today, or has a long upper shadow, a significant drop will inevitably follow. MACD is showing a top divergence with a double dead cross, along with a反揉搓线 combination. (Main force is consolidating, and the market is bearish)
Investment advice: Current price (I entered at 97500) short BTC with half position, stop loss at 99500, take profit at 93100. If you want to accelerate the decline, close 70% of your position at 93100, and close the remaining 30% at 91100 (stop loss at 95000).