Crypto market analysis 6.21

Triple witching day is coming, US stocks will be liquidated for 5 trillion, crypto crisis?
With the arrival of triple witching day in the US stock market every quarter, the volatility of the US stock market has begun to increase, and the currency circle will also be greatly affected. Nvidia will lose more than half of its derivatives driving force. It is highly likely that the US stock AI will start a period of repair after the end of this round, temporarily targeting Nvidia.
On triple witching day, the US stock market plunged, and the crypto continued to weaken and bottomed out. It is highly likely that it will not hold up, and the market will try to bottom out again.
In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Kraken CEO Dave Ripley said that the Biden administration is "softening" its stance on cryptocurrencies. "When people really take the time to understand Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, there is almost always a positive result," Ripley said in the interview.
With NVDA becoming the company with the highest market value in the world, the popularity of related companies in the field of AI has further increased. In the field of crypto assets, NEAR and RNDR are both good AI targets with extremely high hype value. NVDA will have a wide and far-reaching impact on various projects and companies in the AI ​​track. The rise of NVDA will reshape the valuation of other companies in the AI ​​track, so it is a big positive for AI-related companies in the crypto field.
Daily level market
- ​​The daily level is still in a downward trend, with upper pressure around 65,500, support around 64,000, and a large-level bottom around 63,000.
4-hour level market
The 4-hour level rebounded in a short period, and it is still in a bearish trend for the time being, with upper pressure around 66,000, lower support around 64,000, and the extreme support around 63,700 slowly raising the bottom.
Intraday level analysis
-----Even if there is a rebound in the intraday market, we should pay attention to the breakthrough near 66,000. If there is no breakthrough, it is mainly short orders. The bottom is stable on Friday near 64,000, but considering that today is a liquidation day for US stocks, it is temporarily short. The best result is to keep it short or not move. The support below is near 64,000. If it falls below, continue to try the previous low. The large-scale downward trend has not stopped. The daily level has a chance to come to 60,000 again.
Just get through this difficult moment in the history of encryption safely and stay calm when encountering things.

Crypto market analysis 6.20 From the steam age to electronic information, from CPU to GPU, from gold to Bitcoin, the iteration officially begins
HODL15Capital statistics show that there are at least 40 billionaires in the world holding Bitcoin (BTC), and countries are slowly reserving Bitcoin assets for future trade. Bitcoin is digital gold
Nvidia's market value exceeds Apple, and AI services imply that mobile phones will replace mobile phones in the future. The mobile phone market is about 500 billion US dollars, and the future AI market is expected to exceed the trillion market value. The future holographic projection presentation brain-computer may also appear. The current AI track is completely in its early stages.
In the short term, some whales are still betting on the liquidation price near 60,000. It is expected that the end of the month will be the real betting cycle. From a technical point of view, there is still a chance to go to the extreme betting bottom range near 58,000 this month or next month. The time is long enough to buy goods slowly. In the short term, the weekly bottom near 63,800 is the key support.

Daily level market
- ​​Daily level short-term rebound, still in a downward trend, upper pressure around 66000, support around 64500, large-level bottom around 63800.

4-hour level market
4-hour level short-term rebound, temporarily still in a bearish trend, upper pressure around 66000, extreme focus around 66500, lower support around 64500, slowly raising the bottom.

Intraday level analysis
-----Intraday market has signs of rebound in the short term, slowly some tokens will begin to show some willingness to buy the bottom, but the large-level bottom has not ended, in the short term can be gamed reversal, long-term trend is inevitable, can only wait for the bottom to be reached before making a decision again.
The bottom of the intraday market has temporarily appeared, you can try to play long orders in the short term, and look at the upper 66500 and 66000 to the lower support around 64500.
Ethereum is still in a large-scale downward trend, but the small-scale trend is strong, with the bottom around 3500 and the upper pressure around 3580. The breakthrough continues to look upward to repair the position around 3600. The rebound in the short term does not mean a reversal, and we still need to wait in the long term.

In the past two days, ETFs are still in the outflow market, and most funds are still hovering in the AI ​​track. The decline is not expected to stop in the short term, and we can wait for the hot spots of funds to come back.
Just ride out this difficult time in crypto history and stay calm.

Crypto Market Analysis 6.18

A bamboo cane and straw sandals are lighter than a horse, who is afraid? A raincoat will protect you from the rain.

Speculative hot money is turning to AI-related stocks, which is bad for the crypto market, and the overall crypto market continues to fall. Speculative hot money is turning to AI-related stocks, which is bad for the cryptocurrency market. The current US stock market regards every piece of AI news as good news, and given the resulting FOMO, "cryptocurrency has lost its charm."  
There is only a certain amount of hot money in the market, and now all of this hot money is invested in the field of artificial intelligence. Until cryptocurrencies can break through some convincing narrative or constructive progress, cryptocurrencies will just trade sideways in the meantime, waiting for a major market impact. ”

In the last 24 hours, a total of 194,990 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $486 million. The main liquidation was long orders, and the upper liquidation price continued to be around 66,000 above and around 64,000 below.

Regarding the interest rate cut: Fed official Harker continued to manage expectations, saying that based on his current forecast, he believed that it would be appropriate to cut interest rates once this year, which emphasized the signal that interest rates may remain high.

Daily level market
- ​​The last defensive line of the daily level rise is around 63,000-62,000. After yesterday's successful rebound, it continued to fall. The intraday bottom support is around 64,000, and the upper pressure is around 66,500.

4-hour level market
There is a small level support near the 4-hour bottom of 64,500, and the upper pressure is around 66,000 and 67,000. The upper and lower liquidation market is still in a downward trend.

Intraday level analysis
-----Intraday market Yesterday's short-term game long orders were completed. Intraday longs are more difficult. Just pay attention to the pressure near 66,000 above. Rebound and continue to short. It will take some time to digest the market's decline after the ultimate moment. The expectation of wide range consolidation at the weekly level has not changed.

Don't listen to the sound of leaves being blown through the forest, why not sing and walk slowly. Bamboo sticks and straw sandals are lighter than horses, who is afraid? A raincoat will protect you in the rain.
Just get through this difficult moment in the history of encryption safely and stay calm when encountering things.

Crypto market analysis 6.14

It is better to retreat and make a net than to envy the fish in the abyss

The latest quarterly "dot plot" released on Wednesday shows that the median forecast of Fed officials is to cut interest rates once this year, but if the core PCE price index only rises slightly, it may boost the possibility of two rate cuts this year and the start of rate cuts in September.

The market-expected rate cut will definitely take place at the end of this year. If the market is favorable, the Fed will begin to adjust expectations and say bad news. If the market starts to panic, the Fed will release good information.

So we should understand the real logic of the general situation. It has been fluctuating up and down in a large cycle. Then there is no need to worry about holding the spot.

You once envied the chips in 23 years for this year's outbreak and the growth of funds several times, but you didn't know that the other party also hesitated in the dead silence of 23 years. Instead of envy the fish in the abyss, it is better to plant the seeds for next year now.

Daily level market
- ​​The daily level comes to the large-level position support. After breaking through, pay attention to the support around 64,500, correct the decline expectations and no capital fluctuations.

4-hour level market
The 4-hour level rebound ended and continued to bottom out. There is support near 65800, and the upper pressure is near 68500. Pay attention to the support position breaking or continuing to rebound.

Intraday level analysis
-----In this round of time period, it is not recommended to hold contract orders for a long time. The exchange has a strong control and is mainly responsible for clearing positions.
The recent bottom is near 66000. After breaking, it will accelerate the decline and bottom out. However, most of the funds are now dominated by ETFs, so the market will continue to be affected by the news and the involvement of US stocks. For the time being, the key support position has a very low stop loss attempt, and the remaining chips are mainly waiting, and learn to delay satisfaction.

The market has changed very quickly recently. If you want to adjust your position or don’t understand the trend, you are welcome to communicate and learn

Crypto market analysis 6.13

Powell said the bull market is coming, and the next bull market will be a repair bull market
This round of Fed Chairman Powell said that although inflation data has slowed down recently, more good data is needed to enhance confidence in fighting inflation. At present, the conditions for interest rate cuts have not yet been met, and buffering continues. Management expects that,
He pointed out that the U.S. economy has made significant progress in terms of employment and inflation, but GDP growth is expected to slow down, and employment growth, although strong, has slowed down. The stagnant inflation process means that interest rates will have to wait longer and interest rates may not return to pre-epidemic levels. The timing of the first rate cut is critical to the economy.
So what does this important point represent? It means that the next bull market may not be very strong in funds, nor will it be restored immediately, but it also means that the market has not started yet, and everything is waiting.
Bitcoin continued to fall after rising high. As for the key position, the bottom was cast and it is waiting for another test before continuing to charge.

Daily level market
- The daily level is still a large-level upward trend. The bottom of the daily small-level correction is around 66,800, and the upper pressure is around 69,000.

4 hours level market
There was a rebound at the 4-hour level, with the bottom support rising to around 67,300. If it does not fall below, it will continue to see gains. The upper pressure is around 69,000 and around 70,000.

Intraday level analysis
-----The market is at a relatively critical position. If it falls, just focus on the support near 67300 and the final support near 66800. If the support is effective, the subsequent market will continue to be bullish, or the market will be repaired. The market is slowly digesting it. For Powell's speech, everything needs to wait. Whether it is a rate cut in the next few months, there will always be a rate cut this year. The market will slowly come back in the future, so just buy enough chips.

The market has been changing rapidly recently. If you want to adjust your positions or don't understand the trend, you are welcome to communicate and learn.

Crypto market analysis 6.12
Short positions have been settled, and some spot prices are expected to rebound
The bottom support of the daily level is temporarily around 66,000. The position around 66,000--65,000 estimated in the early trading of early June has also been reached. The most important thing on Wednesday is the CPI in the evening and the interest rate decision in the early morning of Thursday, as well as Powell's speech. The negative news released in this round has actually landed, and market expectations have been partially regulated. The recent rebound should appear. Of course, the spot in June will still not have a good space for you and me, and the time period will be longer.
The probability of interest rate suspension in this round is more than 90%. The data is originally open to the Federal Reserve. In fact, the unemployment benefits and other real estate transaction data released weekly also show that the market may be unable to support it, but the Federal Reserve needs to manage expectations, so it is expected to take a long time before the real interest rate cut and funds officially enter the market. And with the start of interest rate cuts and the arrival of a real bull market, the time node may be extended again.

Daily level market
- ​​The daily level is still a large-scale bullish trend, and the small level is repaired. The bottom appears near 66300-65800. If it does not fall below the intraday news, it will slowly repair the market.

4-hour level market
A rebound occurred at the 4-hour level, and it came to the key support near the bottom of 65800 again. The upper pressure is near 69000 and 68500.

Intraday level analysis
-----The first round of rebound occurred during the day, and the bottom appeared in the short term. The upper pressure is near 67700, 68500 and 69500. Multiple pressures will see whether it will rebound during the day. As for where, or choose to build the bottom during the day.
Some short positions have been settled. Now all fluctuations are driven by derivatives. At the key time nodes, some shorts will trigger emotions and lower the chips to choose to ship. For the time being, the short positions have not been fully exited. If there is a rebound in the short term, it can be regarded as a partial exit rebound. The spot position can be slowly entered at the appropriate position. It will not return to V immediately, and some time can be given.

The market has been changing rapidly recently. If you want to adjust your positions or don’t understand the trends, you are welcome to communicate and learn.

Crypto Market Analysis 6.10 Part 2

Powell is unlikely to cut interest rates at this point. In order to control expectations, it is estimated that the interest rate cut cycle will continue until around September. There is a very small possibility that there will be a hype rate cut in July, and then a game in September, and then the rate cut will start and the market will bottom out. However, it is all speculation for the time being, and we need to see Powell's feedback. Wait a minute.
The market has changed very quickly recently. If you want to adjust your position or don't understand the trend, you are welcome to communicate and learn.

Crypto Market Analysis 6.10 Part 1

Successfully repaired the short-term bottom, ARB on-chain game funds appeared
The weekly line was repaired, the bottom's nearest support position was around 69,000, the overall long support position was around 68,500, and the short-term target continued to be 71,000. Ethereum's support is far away, the nearest support is 3,650, the maximum support position is around 3,550, and the short-term target is around 3,850.
Back to that sentence, the daily spot fluctuations are not because many people are doing spot trading, but because there is no money in the market, too much is driven by derivatives trading. If all derivatives of the current volume are liquidated, the price of Bitcoin will almost fall to around 55,000, but the possibility is not great. In the case of an effective market, longs and shorts will be balanced.
Then after the large liquidation of derivatives last week, the bottom appeared this week. In the case of more shorts, you can gamble on a charge of derivatives bulls again.
Please pay extra attention to the chain games on ARB. Arbitrum management approved an on-chain vote to allocate 225 million ARB (currently worth about US$225 million) to fund game development on Arbitrum. The initiative aims to make Arbitrum a leading blockchain in the gaming sector. A vote will be held in the future to elect a council to oversee the initiative.
Daily Level Market
- ​​The daily level is still a large-scale bullish trend, with a key position of around 68500-68000. After breaking and stabilizing, the bullish trend reverses, and the upper pressure position is around 70000.

4-hour level market
The 4-hour level is falling, with the bottom key support position around 68000. The recent support is around 69500 ​​and the key pressure 70000 and the upper 70800.

Intraday Level Analysis
-----The intraday level repair is successful, and two basic technical supports appear, two heavier supports around 69500 ​​and 68500. The upper pressure is around 70200. This week, you can play according to this support position before Wednesday night.
Now, the probability and profit-loss ratio of long positions are better than those of short positions. It is expected that there is a probability that it will return to around 71,000 before Wednesday or Thursday morning. After that, we have to wait for news to close most of the contracts. Whether it will be smooth sailing or bumpy depends on the impact of the news.
Personally, I predict that although some data are very good, they are all biased towards interest rate cuts, including Canada, which has begun to cut interest rates, but this is only the second quarter of this year.

Crypto market analysis 6.09

The market is still recovering over the weekend. Bitcoin can still be seen as a successful bottoming out in the short term if it stabilizes near 68,500. After breaking, it will continue to be dominated by downward movement. In the short term, the market will continue to be controlled by news. Next Wednesday, we will focus on the release of CPI and the interest rate decision on Thursday morning. There is still a high probability of interest rate suspension, but Powell's speech will continue to regulate market expectations. Just pay attention to whether 68,500 falls below. After breaking, it will start to accelerate.
The recent news has too much impact, which may lead to a large inflow or outflow of ETFs in the short term, affecting the trend of the market. In the case of unstable market, very few copycat dealers will pull the market against the trend. At this time, wait for a few days and buy the spot slowly at a low level.

Daily level market
- ​​The daily level is still a large-scale bullish trend, with a key position of around 68,500-68,000. After breaking and stabilizing, the bullish trend will reverse, and the upper pressure position is around 70,000.
4-hour level market
The 4-hour level is falling, with the bottom key support position near 68000, the upper pressure near 69500 ​​and the key pressure near 70200.

Intraday level analysis
The intraday level is still in a state of decline, with upper pressure near 69500 ​​and 70000. You can consider shallow shorting at this position, but it is not recommended to buy contracts on weekends, with small fluctuations, or it is not recommended to buy contracts in the past two days, which is easily resolved by news.

The area around 68500-68000 is a large-scale support. You can try to enter the market with long positions at this position, but you can leave after breaking it. This key position at the bottom of the market is to prepare for the restart of derivatives on Monday. The specific situation depends on the trend on Monday and the closing of the weekly line.

The market has changed very quickly recently. If you want to adjust your position or don’t understand the trend, you are welcome to communicate and learn.

Crypto market analysis 6.08

The news has a huge impact, wait for repair over the weekend
Morgan Stanley will delay the timeline of the first interest rate cut to November. The overall sentiment has been severely frustrated. The probability of no cut in June is still very high. Because of the interest rate cuts in several other regions, everyone has raised the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but this round of news has directly led to another setback in market confidence. It is expected that the market will be repaired after a period of time over the weekend. In the long run, it will slowly give opportunities to fall again.
The real influence on the market in this round has become ETF. Pay attention to the inflow and outflow of ETF at any time, and slowly push up the price, but this round of decline has not caused any major impact. Spot continues to buy and absorb funds. It is expected that the long and short will continue to play on the 14th. Wait at ease at this time.

Daily level market
- ​​The daily level is a breakthrough upward trend. The 68500 position is the overall upward channel support. Pay attention to the defense of this position. The upper pressure is shifted to around 70300, the bottom support is around 68500, and the middle track strength and weakness line is around 69500.

4-hour level market
The trend reversed after the 4-hour level pin, and the retracement to the upper 71200 is a heavy pressure. The 70000 is regarded as the middle track pressure. If the 4-hour price continues to fall, it may find support near 66800-66000. There is no need to rush step by step.

Intraday level analysis
-----Bitcoin began to fall during the day. Don’t look at the volatility of the big cake on weekends. After all, all factors affecting the market will rest on weekends. The dealer is not a cow or a horse, but you and I are cows and horses.
The upper pressure of the intraday level is around 69800-70000. For the time being, we will see the market repair for two days on the weekend. If Bitcoin does not fall below 68500, it can still continue to see the battle above 70,000 after the weekend repair.

If 68500 falls below, the support will come to around 67500. There are too many market news influences. In the big cycle, buy slowly and wait slowly. The overall situation is in a wide range of fluctuations. If it comes to around 62000 again, just wait for the bottom to continue.

The market has been changing rapidly recently. If you want to adjust your positions or don’t understand the trends, you are welcome to communicate and learn.

Crypto market analysis 6.07

The risk of Asian exchange market crash is high, wait until night
According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by August is 78.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 21.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.5%.
The intraday divergence between long and short positions of Bitcoin is relatively large, and the background derivatives push the price position to around 70100, so the competition for thousands of points around 71000 will be particularly obvious. The stable bulls at the daily level can wait for the decline to around 70100 to see the situation. Friday's Asian session is destined to not make it particularly easy for bulls, and the main target of bulls is the defense around 69800.
The unemployment rate will be announced at 8:30 p.m., with a previous value of 3.9% and a forecast value of 3.9%. If the unemployment rate exceeds expectations and is higher than 3.9%, the market will directly usher in a wave of news pull-ups due to the expectation of a rate cut. As long as it is not lower than 3.9%, the market is still in an upward trend.

Daily level market
- ​​The daily level is a breakthrough upward trend, with the upper middle rail pressure near 71000 and the upper rail pressure near 71300. The most important pressure is the previous high near 71900, and the bottom support is near 70500. The daily level market is narrowly converging and changing.
4-hour level market
The 4-hour level is upward, with the upper key pressure near 71700-71400, and the lower large support position near 70100.

Intraday level analysis
-----Bitcoin is mainly biased towards gains during the day, but Bitcoin is changing at the hourly level, with the bottom near 70500. If it does not fall below, it will continue to see a slow increase and continue to rush to the previous high position. The bottom falls below the support level and is viewed step by step, which are around 70100 and 69800 respectively.
The Asian market during the day is destined to be unpleasant. It is recommended not to move Bitcoin during the day, or consider entering the long position around 70100. The position around 70500 is also good, but there are risks after all. The exchanges in the Asian market are ruthless. It is also possible to consider ambush the cottage after the unemployment rate comes out at night.

There are too many positive factors recently. I don’t know how to start. At least the trend is still there. Many tokens will rise. Ambush first and then see the situation. Safety first.

The market has changed rapidly recently. If you want to adjust your position or don’t understand the trend, you are welcome to communicate and learn.

Crypto market analysis 6.06

Today, there are a lot of positives
In essence, there is not much off-market capital entering Bitcoin. Most of the funds entering the market now are ETF spot inflows, including most derivatives. The market driven by derivatives may be liquidated at any time, and the focus is on the inflow of physical funds.
In the short term, including the cottage, the overall trend of Bitcoin has been upward. It is expected that the timeline may change next week. The short-term correction is still a bullish market trend.
The overall market continues to look for opportunities in the cottage to eat up the short-term rotation market. Most TOKENs have no increase or are not close to the end. There are still many opportunities. Long-term players only need to invest regularly, and short-term players should pay attention to profit and walk slowly.
NVIDIA's total market value exceeds Apple, second only to Microsoft. NVIDIA's intraday increase is nearly 5%, and its total market value has reached 3.01 trillion US dollars, exceeding Apple's 3 trillion US dollars. Similar AI targets will have a new round of ambush opportunities.

Daily level market
- ​​Daily level is a breakthrough upward trend, with a big pressure of 72000 above. After the breakthrough, it will be around 74000-75000, and the support will be around 70300.

4-hour level market
4-hour level upward trend, the morning pin is near the strong support position of 70800, and it is also a point to enter the market after stepping back to this position. The upper pressure is around 72000. After the breakthrough, it will slowly look at the previous high, and the extreme support position is around 70300.

Intraday level analysis
-----Bitcoin is mainly biased towards gains during the day. Just pay attention to whether the support near 70800 is effective. It is still not recommended to focus on BTC. Now most of the market is driven by derivatives. Either pull the market in the late trading, and do a good job of long and short positions at the support and pressure positions at the Asian session time, or buy spot. Spot is a reasonable buying range.
Bitcoin intraday support is around 70800--70600. If it falls below the pin, look at the daily level support and the last key position around 69700. Today, including tomorrow, Friday, are all valid.

There are so many positive news recently that I don’t know where to start. At least the trend is still there, and many tokens are going to rise. Let’s wait and see how things go. Safety comes first.

The market has changed very quickly recently. If you want to adjust your positions or don’t understand the trend, you are welcome to communicate and learn.

Pyth can be bought in spot now. The market is about to change. Remember to set a stop loss of 10%-20%.

#Worldcoin #OpenAI #chatgpt #合约交易 #量化交易
How much more will AI take off? OpenAI will hold a product launch conference next week. How long will this wave last and when can we escape? $WLD

#短线交易 #合约挑战 #TradingView #严格止盈止损 #BTC走势分析
Strictly control the stop-profit, stop-loss and positions every day. In fact, the risk of the contract is much smaller. How are you doing these days?