Ethereum failed to return to the $4K mark, causing significant liquidations in the futures market and a rapid decline that cooled market sentiment.

The chart shows the funding rate metric, which is a reliable indicator of futures market sentiment. While rates rose sharply last week, the rejection at $4K led to significant liquidations, returning rates to levels favorable for growth.

This cooling effect could pave the way for more sustained growth in the coming weeks. A similar situation was observed in January 2024, when a sharp rate cut calmed the market, setting the stage for Ethereum’s next major bullish rally. Historical precedent hints at the possible start of a new bullish phase.

The Unrealized Profit/Loss Index (NUPL) is forming a technical pattern of "cup with handle", which could push Bitcoin to the range of 130,000-160,000. In November 2024, Bitcoin successfully broke through the 365-day MA of the NUPL index, which is a positive signal for the medium and long term.

The interesting correlation between Bitcoin price and stablecoin market cap is once again confirmed. Every time the 60-day cap change reaches a peak, Bitcoin also shows a local or global peak. The positive factor now is that the 60-day cap change has not fallen below its average. This suggests that the current correction is just the elimination of weak players from the market and a logical cooling before further growth.

Bitcoin seems to have peaked, but is it really? The first peak of the cryptocurrency is predicted to be in March-April 2025, with a target price range of $130,000-160,000. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization could reach $5-5.5 trillion.

While sell-side liquidity indicators hint at a near-top, 30-day changes suggest further growth is possible until spring 2025.

Bitcoin net flows on exchanges are eye-catching. Outflows are now dominating, suggesting that investors are moving their BTC into long-term storage. This is reducing selling pressure.

The relationship between price action and flows: When the price is rising, inflows on the exchange increase, which may indicate traders are looking to lock in profits. When prices are falling, outflows become more noticeable, indicating that long-term holders are moving their BTC to safety.

The large inflow of 9.9K BTC on the exchange could indicate whale or institutional activity, which could cause volatility.

If outflows continue, this could reduce selling pressure, contributing to a potential price increase. However, large inflows can cause short-term corrections. Watch net flows to understand market sentiment.

Bitcoin recently rose above 107K, but then saw a decline. Is this the end of the bullish trend? Probably not. Analysis of the behavior of old whales shows that at the peak of a new cycle, we usually see them active on exchanges as they sell their Bitcoin. This has not happened so far. This may indicate that the recent decline is just a correction, not the end of the growth.

Tron has established itself as a leading blockchain network, especially in the stablecoin space. Data analysis shows that 97% of token transfer activity on Tron is associated with stablecoins, most notably Tether (USDT). This underscores Tron’s important role in the global stablecoin movement and its popularity for seamless, low-cost transactions.

Stablecoins like USDT provide stability to fiat currencies on blockchain networks, which is essential for crypto trading, transfers, and liquidity in DeFi. Tron has become a favored infrastructure for such transfers due to its low fees, high speed, and scalability.

Unlike Ethereum, where high fees can be intimidating, Tron’s fee structure—less than $0.01 per transaction—is ideal for high volume.

Binance is seeing a significant negative gap between spot and futures prices, indicating short-term pessimism among traders.

This selling pressure has led to a record gap of -59.14 USD. The reason is the latest macroeconomic data from the US Federal Reserve, which includes forecasts for rate cuts and inflation expectations.

It is not only the crypto market that has felt the impact - stocks have also suffered a significant drop, losing $1.8 trillion in market capitalization in a single day, the worst performance since March 2020.

Historically, during bull cycles, such gaps tend to return to neutral territory, which can indicate potential buying opportunities.

Interesting developments in the crypto market: macroeconomic factors may temporarily affect prices, but there are positive signals.

Since August, Ethereum accumulation has been growing significantly - from 10% to 16% of the total supply. This indicates active accumulation by "smart" investors who expect positive changes in DeFi regulation after the Trump election.

The average purchase price for these investors is $2.15k, and historically the price has rarely dropped below this level. While short-term corrections are possible, the long-term prospects look promising due to the growth in accumulation.

Following the Fed meeting, Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) fell significantly by $3 billion, from $33 billion to $30 billion. This came after Powell’s speech, which caused uncertainty and volatility in the markets.

The VIX fear index rose sharply, reflecting the growing anxiety among market participants. Significant liquidations in the futures market led to a slight cooling.

Investors are choosing a more cautious strategy amid growing fear. This development could be an important indicator for understanding future market movements.

Crypto exchange analysis shows different levels of leverage, which affects liquidity and default risks. We evaluated the ratio of open interest to reserves to understand the financial health of exchanges.

Binance stands out among the large exchanges by maintaining strong reserves that exceed open interest. Its leverage ratio increased from 12.8 in December 2023 to 13.5 in December 2024, demonstrating stability even as Bitcoin open interest increased.

Smaller exchanges like OKX also have low ratios. However, Gate.io, Bybit, and Deribit have high ratios, indicating risks similar to those that led to the FTX crash in 2024. It is important to monitor these ratios to avoid similar situations.

The decentralized finance ecosystem on TRON continues to grow, increasing competition for liquidity and user acquisition. TRON is strengthening its position in DeFi with the SunSwap, stUSDT, and JustLend platforms.

Users are actively switching between SunSwap versions, maintaining stability in overall TVL, which indicates confidence in the platform’s development. However, stUSDT is facing difficulties in maintaining competitive revenues and token stability.

The TVL trend favors JustLend, which shows a steady growth to $5.678B, confirming user confidence in the platform. While stUSDT experienced a sharp drop from $200M to $59.36M, indicating a decrease in confidence in it as a reliable liquidity provider.

Bitcoin is in a bearish phase, raising concerns that the bull cycle may be coming to an end. However, judging the market based solely on the current correction may be premature, as many on-chain metrics remain bullish.

Newcomers who invested during the rally to the all-time high are now suffering losses. For those who entered 1-4 weeks ago, the realized price is $98k. But for investors who entered 1-3 months ago, it is $71k, and it is unlikely that the price will fall to this level.

In 2021, Bitcoin often alternated between new highs and sharp corrections, but always recovered. This suggests that the current correction does not necessarily mean the end of the cycle.

Analyzing the 30-day average SOPR, it is clear that the activity of short-term investors does not resemble the intense selling at the peaks of past cycles. This indicates that the current correction is temporary.

For new investors, this could be a great opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a discount. Instead of panic selling, consider a long-term DCA strategy.

XRP became the most popular altcoin on Binance in December '24, with a trading volume of 116.6 billion. And it's not even the end of the month yet! Keep an eye on the most active coins on Binance, as they can be key to your trading strategy.

The last two days have been difficult for Bitcoin and altcoins, with significant drops. However, XRP shows the potential for a quick recovery.

Analyzing the TON price heatmap, the $5.14 level indicates a “cool” zone. Historically, the TON price has only fallen below this level during bear markets. Now, during the bull cycle, this could be a potential local bottom.

What are TON’s targets in this bull run?

Using the heatmap, the following target levels can be identified:

- $8.74

- $15.93

- $19.53

These levels indicate a possible TON growth of up to 280% in the altcoin market. It is important to note that the heatmaps are based on a moving average, so in conditions of price growth, these target levels can also increase.

Coinbase Premium Index: Remains in negative territory, indicating increasing selling pressure.

aSOPR: Sudden spikes in profit taking seen.

ETF trend should remain stable! Today's data will be crucial in determining the market direction.

An interesting dynamic in the cryptocurrency market is that long-term holders play a significant role in shaping trends. The Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric helps analyze their activity. If the CDD value is above the average, this may indicate possible selling pressure.

Recently, Binary CDD increased sharply when Bitcoin reached a new record of $108K. This may indicate that long-term holders consider this level to be advantageous for selling, reducing their market exposure. If the selling pressure intensifies, this could lead to increased volatility and a potential price correction.

Coinbase records record Bitcoin outflow: 10,756 BTC, worth $1.1 billion, were withdrawn in an hour. This movement coincided with the announcement of the Fed’s interest rate decision.

Transaction details:

- First block: 8,093 BTC
- Second block: 2,557 BTC
- Total outflow: 10,650 BTC

This large transaction indicates institutional purchases or purchases for Spot ETFs. Such actions highlight the growing influence of large players in the Bitcoin market.

Investors in the US continue to actively accumulate Bitcoin, despite price fluctuations. It is important to analyze how these large transactions may affect price trends.

The price of Bitcoin that buyers have paid over the past week and month typically acts as technical support during bull markets. If demand in the US declines, as the Coinbase Premium Index suggests, and the Fed continues its tight policy, Bitcoin could test the 97,600 level.

Analyzing Ethereum data, it is noticeable that Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 promise a potential upward trend. In Q4 2024, there is a significant increase in leverage ratios, indicating an increase in risk appetite among investors. Ethereum open interest reached record levels, and positions maintain positive funding rates.

But the question remains: how will the Fed’s policy, despite the rate cut, affect these bullish signals for Ethereum? This could be a decisive factor for the market direction.