I think of a few words from Fanhua again. After the Great Heat comes the Great Cold. Similarly, after the Great Cold comes the Great Heat. The cycle is like this. Don't be carried away by emotions and open orders without stop loss.

Everyone is wondering why the Shanzhai and Ethereum are so crowded and why the last bull market was so strong. The exchange rate pair may be able to answer

In the last bull market for 20 years, the eth/btc exchange rate pair went up along the trend line and even broke out in the end. In January 2024 this year, the exchange rate pair fell below the upward trend line. After that, it was sluggish and fell. It even fell below the downward trend line and felt further accelerated.

For those who love eth, the bad news is that the exchange rate pair has not stopped falling. The good news is that the concentration area is below. If there is no accident, Ethereum's strong period will not be far away. #加密市场回调 #eth #山寨

Not bad, young man. There is a bright future. With a small amount of capital, you can explode a few times. Once you become a seasoned player, you can start making money. The learning cost is much lower than others.

Your bullishness in August and September is impressive. It's already the end now. Have you been mindlessly shouting 'short' all the way?

It's a critical point. If it can't hold, just watch 90,000 and 85,000.
Personally, I still feel relatively optimistic.

How did all sorts of ghosts and monsters come out after a few days of decline? Look at BTC, it has risen from 15k to 100k, and there are still such remarks? Even if you bought physical assets at 60k during the last bull market, you are still in profit. Can the bears from 15k still get out of their positions? But I know that even if the physical assets reach 110k, they will eventually be able to get out of their positions one day.
The overall trend of currency throughout human history is a process of inflation. It rises in a spiral. And still saying that shorting is easy money.

The day before yesterday was sent. This is the pattern that Xiaobai likes to talk about all day. No risk control, just empty talk. Even if there is a huge price surge next year, the altcoins can first drop by 50% to 60% before rallying. Can you handle the contracts? Aren't you worried if your total capital in spot trading decreases by 70%?
As always, the only way to make money in the long run is a bit of skill + strict risk control + compound interest. It's not about predictions and patterns. The dealer's pattern is that they only put out less than one-thousandth of their total assets to play with you. If you forget, just forget. You have high leverage, and going all in will wash you out.

This drop helps everyone recognize which are junk coins. Let's review a few. The rules are as follows:
When the market rises, it does not rise. When the market falls, it plummets. There is even a possibility of further decline.
sats, wif, rats, bome. These coins have dropped about 50% in just over 10 days and have fallen below the trend line. The upper area has been a pressure zone for several months. It is more difficult to break through compared to other coins. If there is a pullback, it is recommended to short first.

Now, if you're trying to buy the dip on a scam, it's either bad or you're not thinking straight.
May I ask, has the decline stopped? Where do you see that? Not even a single bullish daily candle, and even if you want to go long, you should at least wait for a bottom to form; the big players need to accumulate too. Don't gamble on guessing the bottom. If you think it can rise 1-2 times, why not wait? Are you concerned about this 10-20%? Be patient.
The tone for this week has already been set. Not continuing to drop is already a good outcome.
The best outcome would be to close with a long bearish candle. Next would be to consolidate; many scams have dropped 50% over two weeks, and some people think that's a bottom. There’s a saying: scams have no bottom. A drop of 99% and then sideways for 1-2 years is possible.
To reiterate, we have no vested interests. Those KOLs selling courses and signals are the ones after your money. If you believe in them, you can really exit the circle. Let's lose a little less money by the end of the year and have a good New Year.

The only way to make money in the cryptocurrency world is to manage risk and compound interest.
Some people just like to invest in altcoins, especially in worthless ones. Want to buy a lottery ticket, huh?
It's a very intuitive and simple logical judgment. If altcoins can't rise with Bitcoin for three to four months, they are worthless altcoins or third-rate coins. If they can't rise, they will certainly plummet when the market drops. This bull market will not have a place for them either. Beginners, trading is not that difficult; it's not based on feelings or anything too profound. No one can predict the market in the short term. As a trader, what you can do is manage risk, not control the market's ups and downs.
For example, investing in altcoins should occupy no more than 20% of your capital.

Boom boom boom. Let's return to zero!!!

BTC is down less than 5% from its peak. A bunch of altcoins have already dropped 20-30%, with some returning directly to the beginning of the year. If BTC were to pull back 15%-20% at this time, how many altcoins would be cut in half, dropping over 50%?
So, is playing with altcoins high leverage at 2x? The answer is definitely yes. Since you expect it to rise 3-4 times in a short period, you also cannot be certain it will drop 70%-80% in a short period.
Moreover, the market is no longer in a phase where BTC's rise brings everything else up.

This bull market has already been rising for 4 months. How much longer can it last? 1 month, 2 months, or 3 months? However, many people only realized it was a bull market this month. By the time they react, it will be too late.
BTC is expected to rise in the future, but we are already at the end. After this, we are likely to face a long period of sideways movement or decline. It will definitely not be the explosive growth that KOLs talk about for 25 years. I do not recommend going all in during the end of the market.
As for the halving cycle, to be honest, this bull market is already different from the previous ones; the market makers have changed.

Altcoins are more sensitive than mainstream. When there is a surge, if altcoins drop while mainstream slowly rises, then caution is needed. This may indicate that the surge has ended and is entering a consolidation or decline period.
Altcoins have smaller market caps, so when the main players take profits, it becomes evident, while the overall market moves more slowly. This often leads to situations where people go long on altcoins when BTC is rising, but the altcoins end up falling. A group of people just doesn't understand why altcoins aren't rising.

No stop loss for short positions... Do you think BTC will go to zero?

Your high-leverage clone is basically a dead end. Moreover, it is several trash clones.

Coins that don't rise even in a bull market. Could they be quality assets? Or do we hope they will rise in reverse during a bear market? Some beginners just like to engage in empty grand narratives and prefer to invest in weak coins. Fantasizing about 100 times, 1000 times. In a bull market, the strong stay strong. If even BTC can't lead coins after rising for 3 months, it's better not to pay attention; there may be opportunities, but it's more likely we have to wait for the next bull market.
It's worth noting that some old coins that have risen this time have been consolidating for 2-3 years.

I really don't understand. Why do you still hold and pay attention to a coin that hasn't moved for 3 months in BTC? Are you waiting for BTC to pull back and it won't pull back? Or do you think that if BTC falls, it will rise? The probability is too low, right? The strong remain strong, and even if it has a chance to catch up later, in my opinion, it's still a third-rate coin.

The altcoins have already peaked. Now BTC is flowing back. In case BTC retraces to 84,000, the altcoins could drop another 30%-50%.

There are too many short sellers. It seems that this time will be different.

At present, BTC is falling for one month and rising for another month. This is the case before it breaks through the trend line. This rule has lasted for 7 months. You have to respect it and can't always say that this time is different. If it is really different, it must be different first.