hansolar21
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Playbook for a structural break
short the first bounce
long back at support
re-add to shorts on double top
short the first bounce
long back at support
re-add to shorts on double top
Lowered my stink bids
tldr. markets seems to be using 5-6 leverage
a move greater than 20% could lead to a large cascading liquidation.
https://youtu.be/ErKrUf0zUxE?t=874
h/t @RiffRaffOz
tldr. markets seems to be using 5-6 leverage
a move greater than 20% could lead to a large cascading liquidation.
https://youtu.be/ErKrUf0zUxE?t=874
h/t @RiffRaffOz
Only 16% away from Saylor's average price now
Max Panic at $66,357
Max Panic at $66,357
I'd like to see some capitulation on this one
littered some shorts here and there
Sell crypto, buy houses
2025-02-28
Daily Vol : Dead cat after dead cat after dead cat
Macro and Trump tarriffs not helping crypto at all here.
Weak economic data led to more defensive flows yesterday.
DXY rose, bond yields fell, VIX rose further.
PCE today might be a release valve.
Can go both ways, but a move up on say a soft print is likely temporary.
Long-term skews pointing towards risk OFF.
Stay off the green button, unless it's for closing shorts.
Positives
- Orderbook imbalance is getting pretty stark. Lots of bids waiting to be filled on BTC ETH and SOL.
Makes me think the dip won’t be as deep as people expect.
Positioning : Short
Set stink bids and waiting.
Daily Vol : Dead cat after dead cat after dead cat
Macro and Trump tarriffs not helping crypto at all here.
Weak economic data led to more defensive flows yesterday.
DXY rose, bond yields fell, VIX rose further.
PCE today might be a release valve.
Can go both ways, but a move up on say a soft print is likely temporary.
Long-term skews pointing towards risk OFF.
Stay off the green button, unless it's for closing shorts.
Positives
- Orderbook imbalance is getting pretty stark. Lots of bids waiting to be filled on BTC ETH and SOL.
Makes me think the dip won’t be as deep as people expect.
Positioning : Short
Set stink bids and waiting.
2024-02-27
Daily Vol : Officially Goblin Town
BTC
You’d think that when the Fear and Greed Index hits extremes you should long
It’s actually a risk off signal for at least 1.5 months.
Ignore arrows, they're the OPs @CryptoHeroesDE
(curious how he got them on the tv chart 🤔)
1.5 moths puts us square in sell in May territory haha.
A bounce there would be pretty counter to everyones expectation
Imagine the sentiment then.
For mid-term traders I'd layer bids 13-20% down from here
That’s like 75k down to 65k
A huge range.
Also... The Kimchi Premium reins undefeated in calling tops
The counter signal being negative premiums.
Longer term, I don’t think this cycle is over.
Alts
Alts haven’t done well here during extreme fear historically.
But they have been sold off extra hard this season, so maybe they bottom faster, but I wouldn’t put too much weight on this.
Positioning : Short bias
Short BTC, SOL, ETH, AVAX
Small Longs on HYPE BERA
Spot trades
Bought some Pippin here.
Showing a bit of strength.
Got completely bodied on this trade, but still one of my favorite AI projects.
Feels like all the traders left.
Daily Vol : Officially Goblin Town
BTC
You’d think that when the Fear and Greed Index hits extremes you should long
It’s actually a risk off signal for at least 1.5 months.
Ignore arrows, they're the OPs @CryptoHeroesDE
(curious how he got them on the tv chart 🤔)
1.5 moths puts us square in sell in May territory haha.
A bounce there would be pretty counter to everyones expectation
Imagine the sentiment then.
For mid-term traders I'd layer bids 13-20% down from here
That’s like 75k down to 65k
A huge range.
Also... The Kimchi Premium reins undefeated in calling tops
The counter signal being negative premiums.
Longer term, I don’t think this cycle is over.
Alts
Alts haven’t done well here during extreme fear historically.
But they have been sold off extra hard this season, so maybe they bottom faster, but I wouldn’t put too much weight on this.
Positioning : Short bias
Short BTC, SOL, ETH, AVAX
Small Longs on HYPE BERA
Spot trades
Bought some Pippin here.
Showing a bit of strength.
Got completely bodied on this trade, but still one of my favorite AI projects.
Feels like all the traders left.
The kimchi premium top indicator reins supreme
DOLO setting new standard of what hockey-stick growth looks like
2025-02-26
Daily Vol : BOTTOM? PLEASE???
Took some drawdowns bidding the dip, but happy with positioning now.
Bid the bottom of BTC quite nicely with good size averaging at 87k after entering a bit early and getting clipped at 91k.
Amongst seasoned traders, 75k seems to be the consensus bid level atm. Agree it’s a good level to bid.
The support here at 88k is the market’s attempt to frontrun that, but feels like a low conviction stance. I think this support could fall apart on macro headwinds, which continue to look worrying; elevated vix, falling yields, and rising yen.
So I’m staying nimble, raising BTC stops up to break even and staying neutral/short on the alt side.
There is not much to be bullish at the moment
- Coinbase premium is strongly negative
- No kimchi premium support
- Sizable ETF outflows
It basically looks like the binance bid-block is holding up the whole market.
Not great.
On the bull side
- Longer term options skews are bullish
- Sentiment is poor
- We’ve taken lots of liquidity; meaning we might be out of aggressive sellers
Again, not great.
Positioning
- Long BTC(Heavy, but cutting on weakness)
- Long ETH/SOL
- Short AVAX, WIF
SOL
Aggressive sellers still dictating price, but orderbook looking better and better.
Currently using SOL and WIF as a short-leg, but could see a reversal soon.
ETH
Bridging flows showing capital rotating back from BNB and SOL.
I really want to like ETH, but still feel like i want to puke every time i long hahaha
Pairing with SOL shorts atm.
Would like to see more technical strength.
Large bids at 2200, want to get avg price down to that level if we get the chance.
🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz. Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party.
Daily Vol : BOTTOM? PLEASE???
Took some drawdowns bidding the dip, but happy with positioning now.
Bid the bottom of BTC quite nicely with good size averaging at 87k after entering a bit early and getting clipped at 91k.
Amongst seasoned traders, 75k seems to be the consensus bid level atm. Agree it’s a good level to bid.
The support here at 88k is the market’s attempt to frontrun that, but feels like a low conviction stance. I think this support could fall apart on macro headwinds, which continue to look worrying; elevated vix, falling yields, and rising yen.
So I’m staying nimble, raising BTC stops up to break even and staying neutral/short on the alt side.
There is not much to be bullish at the moment
- Coinbase premium is strongly negative
- No kimchi premium support
- Sizable ETF outflows
It basically looks like the binance bid-block is holding up the whole market.
Not great.
On the bull side
- Longer term options skews are bullish
- Sentiment is poor
- We’ve taken lots of liquidity; meaning we might be out of aggressive sellers
Again, not great.
Positioning
- Long BTC(Heavy, but cutting on weakness)
- Long ETH/SOL
- Short AVAX, WIF
SOL
Aggressive sellers still dictating price, but orderbook looking better and better.
Currently using SOL and WIF as a short-leg, but could see a reversal soon.
ETH
Bridging flows showing capital rotating back from BNB and SOL.
I really want to like ETH, but still feel like i want to puke every time i long hahaha
Pairing with SOL shorts atm.
Would like to see more technical strength.
Large bids at 2200, want to get avg price down to that level if we get the chance.
🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz. Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party.
After 2 years of down-only relative to BTC SOL and everything else, is it finally time for ETH to shine?
i thought chinese ppl LIKED the number EIGHT
there are no sensible value buys in crypto
there is only fear
buying the fear and buying for fear of missing out
there is only fear
buying the fear and buying for fear of missing out
Sometimes I feel like a large language model—compressing insights from the best sources, then running my own “training loop” in the markets to test if I’ve got it right.
think we've bottomed
(locally)
(locally)
The value of my short positions seem to be converging to zero
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