koko__
@Square-Creator-212765507
裸k战神，一切消息面均反应在k线之上，擅长阶段性的多空，只跟随趋势，不做短线，只做趋势单，趋势需要学会承受中间的震荡
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I don't want to comment on this market. This is an atypical bull market. I was lucky and made a hedge at 102000, hoping to avoid a few days of volatility. Who knew that I avoided a large wave of risks? If I didn't hedge, I would protect the stop loss at 98500. It was another large wave of profit withdrawal. Then it was a wait-and-see situation. I didn't make a move easily. As the short-term trend was about to recover, it broke through 99500 directly. It was very difficult. It's too easy to lose money in this market without risk awareness. No matter how good the trend is, you can't go without a stop loss.
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Need a small range of fluctuations, expected to reach a new high next week
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Let's see if we can reach 110,000 next week.
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100,000 now, hehe, do you accept it or not? 108,000 dropping to 101,000 prompts risk, dropping below 98,500 says the short-term trend is broken, two rebounds at 99,500 say it's a rebound, a few days ago at 95,000 said it stabilized, hehe😁
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Next week, it needs to reach 100,000. The time has already met the requirement here. To continue this round of increase, it must reach 100,000 next week and break through 110,568,814,2869 the week after.
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Normal Oscillation
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Tending to be bullish, 100,000 is crucial. As long as we can stay above 100,000, there is a great hope. It cannot drop below around 95,500, or else the trend may be damaged again. The reason I didn't mention stable signs when it dropped to 92,500 and rebounded to 99,500 is that it dropped again and rebounded to 99,960; I didn't say there were signs of rebound either. If it drops to 91,500 and rises to 95,000 this time, I will say there are stable signs. The main reason is time; if the conditions are met in terms of time, and it stays above 100,000, there is a high possibility of resuming the uptrend.
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Whether it can exceed 100,000 next week is quite important
The pie is showing signs of stabilization
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As long as Bitcoin stands above 100,000 next week without falling below 94,000, it is very likely to resume the upward trend. In fact, a very important support here is around 95,500, which is a hard support. Give a little error, that is, 94,500. If it goes down further, the risk will be too much. Don’t worry about the low spot contracts. This is for the $BTC who enter the market now.
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Two Key Points for Whether the Big Pancake Can Recover Strongly
1. It is not suitable to test the bottom here again, otherwise it will also amplify risks
2. Stand above 100,000 next week
1. It is not suitable to test the bottom here again, otherwise it will also amplify risks
2. Stand above 100,000 next week
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Market conditions are very important, this section is relatively difficult to judge. Firstly, it still belongs to the bull market cycle, so we can rule out a major top here. If it were at the top last week, it would have penetrated 90,000 or even 85,000. Therefore, if it's not a top, there are only two types of market scenarios:
1. The main upward wave continues, but this main upward wave is somewhat distorted. If we consider this adjustment as a significant pullback, then in terms of time, it's about right, and in terms of strength, it's relatively weak. However, 90,000 is also an important trend support, so it's a bit complex.
2. A large-scale oscillating market begins, which makes it difficult to assess the bottom and is quite far off, so we won’t consider this for now.
Conclusion: We can slowly try to enter the market in batches now. Trading will not be without risks, but we have actually avoided some risks already, so we can take a chance here.
1. The main upward wave continues, but this main upward wave is somewhat distorted. If we consider this adjustment as a significant pullback, then in terms of time, it's about right, and in terms of strength, it's relatively weak. However, 90,000 is also an important trend support, so it's a bit complex.
2. A large-scale oscillating market begins, which makes it difficult to assess the bottom and is quite far off, so we won’t consider this for now.
Conclusion: We can slowly try to enter the market in batches now. Trading will not be without risks, but we have actually avoided some risks already, so we can take a chance here.
The pie is showing signs of stabilization
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Looking back, isn't this 6000-point bearish line very powerful, a crappy market?
Just woke up, will talk later. This bearish candle is quite powerful. Although this bearish candle's drop is only 6000 points, it is more powerful than the 104000 spike of 90000.
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Anyway, there's no rush to enter here; you can still enter from the right if you miss your chance.
After this week, let's see if there is any chance to enter the market. Even if there is a decline this week, the risk should be almost released. $BTC
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After this week, let's see if there is any chance to enter the market. Even if there is a decline this week, the risk should be almost released. $BTC
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Continue to be patient, don't rush to enter the market. Since the strong upward trend has ended and we are entering a correction and consolidation period, even if we are to resume an upward trend, it won't be so quick. Looking back, the caution at that time was indeed not wrong. 100,000 is a dividing line; only a strong bullish candle breaking through 100,000 may lead to a resumption of the strong upward trend.
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Next week, if we can't go up, the risk will become greater. Ideally, we should go down first and then go up, at least above 100,000; otherwise, we have to consider worse situations. This is during the main upward wave of a bull market. If the short-term upward trend is gone, a two to three-week fluctuation and decline would be about right. If it continues to fluctuate down for a long time, it can only indicate that the upward trend from 66,800 may be coming to an end. Truly, only a bear market feels the most comfortable.
Next week is quite a critical week for Bitcoin $BTC
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This is a rubbish market. If you don't buy this pie at a low price, you can't get it. There is no high certainty. If you don't hold it at a low price, there is no margin for error. $BTC
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You might say this is the top, but without discussing the power of the long cycle, just looking at the daily chart is also wrong. What's wrong? It has fallen too much. If this is the top, it should either maintain fluctuations above 100,000 for a few weeks, or you would need a direct big bearish candle to penetrate 85,000 for it to be possible. So, the market situation is complicated, too complicated.
The worst main upward wave, I give up. The daily line, 3-day line, weekly line, and December monthly line all look terrible. From the daily perspective, it is currently undergoing a major correction, but at this position, this major correction is truly frustrating. The pattern is completely ruined, and there is no indication of a FOMO sentiment at the 108,000 position. Usually, at the peak of a stage, there will be a FOMO situation, specifically manifested as a large fluctuation in the daily line with a doji star. This time, it slowly climbed up and directly pierced through 98,500 to 99,500, which seems to indicate that the buying power is severely insufficient, and there are too many sellers. When buyers pause, it simply cannot hold. The range from 98,500 to 99,500 is crucial support to maintain the upward trend. Generally speaking, the main upward wave is a process of continuously raising the bottom. Once it goes up to a platform, it usually won't return to the previous platform. Here, after officially going up, it has directly pierced back to the previous platform, significantly increasing the short-term risk.
Only those acquired from the low position can be held for continued observation. It's fundamentally impossible to enter the trend; there’s no thought of speculation. The uncertainty is huge, and to speculate, one must set a stop-loss below 85,000, as the risk is too great.
In the absence of black swans, 85,000 is the last tolerable position. If you have bought from a low position, as long as it doesn't break 85,000, you can hold it. If it breaks, it’s best to at least reduce your position and continue to observe, preferably until next week.
Only those acquired from the low position can be held for continued observation. It's fundamentally impossible to enter the trend; there’s no thought of speculation. The uncertainty is huge, and to speculate, one must set a stop-loss below 85,000, as the risk is too great.
In the absence of black swans, 85,000 is the last tolerable position. If you have bought from a low position, as long as it doesn't break 85,000, you can hold it. If it breaks, it’s best to at least reduce your position and continue to observe, preferably until next week.
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