#比特币市场波动观察 When will Bitcoin pull back? Some people say 90,000. But I insist on saying 82,000. This is a 0.618 pullback from 11.5 to a new high. What is a bull market? Simply put, it is a big volatility. If you can't stand this drop, how can you welcome the crypto carnival when Trump takes office next year? Without further ado, you should go short at highs. Unless there is a strong reversal, keep going short. $BTC
The copycat season is here! Oh, it’s a collective plunge!
The altcoins rose in a sunny day in early November, but now they are falling in a waterfall-like manner. The altcoin season has not come yet, and they have begun to fall! Don't panic, I will explain. First of all, you need to understand what a bull market is. In simple terms, the general trend is rising, and rising sharply and rapidly. This also shows that the volatility is large. The volatility of altcoins is about 10%, and now 15-20% is not excessive in the bull market. Now the altcoins have broken through the extreme support and are beginning to enter the vacuum zone. Some coins with higher market value will be adjusted back by 75%, and those with lower market value will return directly to the pre-liberation period. Don't think that the bull market is gone because of the big drop, otherwise you will lose everything. Remember that in the bull market, even if you are trapped, you can still get out of the trap, but if you are trapped in the short position, you will have to wait for the explosion.
$ETH ETH has now formed an "M" head. There will not be a good opportunity to go long in the short term. Shorting at 3544 has already made a large profit. The specific stop profit is around 3050, which is 0.618 of the highest point of this bull market, and it is also almost the position of the M head. Those who did not short at 3544 can enter the market to short at the 1-hour level to step on EMA20. Do not participate in long orders during this period. Know that a strong long signal K appears.
#市场调整後的机会? Callback in a bull market is an opportunity for us to re-enter, which can be called the golden pit of the bull market. Currently, going long may not see significant gains in the short term; always maintain respect for the market and keep some funds for additional positions. The first entry point can be smaller, while the additional position can be larger to better lower the average price. In a bull market, high leverage can help you gain greater profits but may also expose you to lower risk. There is still no signal for the next major rise; hold long positions with patience and wait patiently.
#加密市场回调 From the beginning of the rise in early November, to summarize the first week in one sentence: whatever you buy goes up, buy whatever goes up. As long as you don't short, you will definitely make money. In the following weeks, some coins have gradually shown a pullback, but if you buy at lows, there's no need to prevent spikes with high leverage, you can still make money. This will give you a false sense of security that there won’t be a waterfall in the bull market. The recent three days of decline clearly show that the market is starting to pull back; some might say it's nonsense, can't I see it? But how big will the pullback be? I believe it will pull back to 0.5-0.618 from the starting point to the peak. This process won't take too long, so on the surface, it looks like a big drop, but the purpose is to make retail investors cut losses, allowing big funds to get back in, pushing cryptocurrency to its peak after Trump took office.
DOT# the head and shoulders pattern has formed yesterday, and the drop in the early hours of today has validated it. Currently, it is testing the neckline; those who haven't entered can place orders near the neckline. Most coins reached extreme support yesterday but did not break down. If there is a breakdown today, it can be retraced for shorting. $DOT
ETH# eth has consumed a lot of short energy after two days of decline and rebounded near the key support level of 3544 (most coins have reached extreme support today). Most of the reasons are short profit-taking and closing positions in the past two days (green arrows in the figure). There is not much buying power, which can be seen from the following two K-lines (blue arrows) and trading volume. A rapid decline will not lead to a rapid rise, and it is likely to enter a trading range. Those who bought the left trading order at 3544 can partially close their positions, and the right trading needs to be observed. $ETH
DOT# dot The head and shoulders top has formed. If the purple rectangle below, which is a vacuum zone, is successful, profits will be quickly obtained. However, the success rate of the reversal pattern is only 40%. Will you choose? 😂
ETH# Ethereum has reached the key level of 3544. A key level does not necessarily mean you should go long or short; going long or short depends on your trading system and your understanding of the market. Left-side trading: Enter directly to go long. If it effectively breaks below 3544, then stop loss and exit; only profit target at 4100. The downside is that the win rate is very low. Right-side trading: Wait and see. If there is a good signal for a rebound, then go long with a stop loss at 3544. If it breaks below 3544, then ETH will form an 'M top' and I will choose to go short. That is a one-to-one equal distance; this position just happens to be a 0.618 retracement from the starting point of ETH to 4100.