Vitalik is a man, not a god.

As long as you look at it from this perspective, everything is clear. I really like the analogy in the article "On the Impact of Vitalik and Various Roadmaps on Ethereum Governance Process" compiled by Geek Web3, that is, Vitalik actually plays a substantive "CTO" role in the Ethereum ecosystem to control the giant ship of Ethereum from deviating from the track:

Responsible for guiding the development process of Ethereum to be consistent with the planning direction of each "roadmap", and even has the final say on whether the development direction is in line with the vision of Ethereum (regardless of whether he is willing to be so "dictatorial")~

For CRV, the story of "crying wolf" has been told too many times, and it is only a matter of time before it becomes true.

Looking back at the summary, this is not a pre-trading idea - large-scale liquidation (CRV), stable de-anchoring (UST, etc.) and other "black rhino" trading opportunities that are almost obvious, you can prepare a response plan in advance, keep track of the signs at all times, and once they appear, you can get the excess return of the time difference at the first time🧐
#Crv

Curve 创始人的 CRV 抵押仓位又双叒叕临近清算线了

The health rate of Michael Egorov's multiple loan positions has dropped to around 1.1 again, which means that if CRV continues to fall by 10% without replenishment or repayment, liquidation may begin.

Among them, the largest single loan is in UwU Lend, with a total of about 72.92 million CRV deposited, about 16.5 million US dollars borrowed, and the health coefficient is 1.12; in addition, the 19.48 million CRV on Silo and 46.02 million on Fraxlend, the health coefficient is also lower than 1.14, indicating that Michael has not taken any response measures in the past two days (except opening a liquidity pool)~

To put it bluntly, it is a bit like a broken jar-holding such a large amount of CRV, it is difficult to sell smoothly in the secondary market, and the mortgage lending of various DeFi protocols provides an option that can minimize the impact on cashing out~

Perhaps, luxury houses> projects?🤑
#curve
Curve 创始人的 CRV 抵押仓位又双叒叕临近清算线了

From my perspective as a "source", I have seen the inside information last week, and it will definitely come out this week👀

And one thing that the media rarely reports is that an old friend in Hong Kong will simultaneously launch an Ethereum spot ETF, which means it will be a BTC/ETH spot ETF double yolk😎
#ETF批准

It’s still a familiar script. Self-built liquidity pools of cvcrvUSD/scrvUSD-CRV/uCRVUSD, maximized annualized returns, and “lured” the market to deposit crvUSD and CRV to reduce its own utilization rate🤑

It’s exactly the same as the last self-built liquidity pool of crvUSD/fFRAX🧐
#Crv #curve

The analysis of the revenue is very detailed👏

The revenue of LSD is almost negligible, mainly due to the airdrop expectation + the funding rate paid by long positions.

However, the market pricing of airdrop expectations is actually more inclined to "self-proving logic". After all, the logic currently used to price it is based on the current capital volume and market sentiment.

Therefore, in summary, there may be a nonlinear sentiment singularity - the funding rate continues to be negative and continues to expand, the market begins to discuss Fud, the USDe yield drops sharply + the de-anchor discount, and then the market value plummets (user redemption):

For example, if it falls from $10 billion to $5 billion, Ethena must close its short position and redeem the collateral (such as ETH or BTC). If there are any problems in the redemption process (wear and tear caused by liquidity problems in extreme market conditions, large market fluctuations, etc.), the anchoring of USDe will be further affected~

This negative feedback mechanism cannot be ruled out by malicious sniping, triggering this singularity, thus facing a negative spiral dilemma similar to the collapse of UST
##USDe ##ethena_labs ##ENA

For USDe, there is a dangerous signal that cannot be ignored:

The annualized funding rate of BTC and ETH has turned negative since 00:00 today. Currently, BTC is -5.43%/2.97%, and ETH is -13.7%/-4.61%.

According to the official website of Ethena Labs, the total value of USDe's Bitcoin collateral assets exceeds US$800 million, and the Ethereum position exceeds US$1 billion, accounting for nearly 80% of the total, which also constitutes the main source of USDe's high returns:

Ethena is actually harvesting all cryptocurrency traders who are long in the bull market and pay funding fees for it, so the high yield is extremely dependent on the positive funding rate behind the market sentiment.

So from this perspective, in the next 24-48 hours, if the funding rate of the entire network continues to turn negative, or even increases, USDe will be in danger - in the context of negative funding rates, USDe will likely find it difficult to maintain its anchor, and then fall below $1 (in fact, it has already fallen below $1 at the time of posting, slightly de-anchored), and then panic and liquidation will begin.
#ENA #USDe

The reserved item for every recent big drop: The CRV mortgage position of the founder of Curve is approaching the liquidation line again~

As early as August 2023, Curve founder Michael Egorov held about 50% of the circulating supply of CRV (about 500 million), but could not sell it (no liquidity, image consideration, etc.), so he chose to mortgage CRV to borrow cash.

DeBank data shows that as of the time of writing, the largest single loan was on UwU Lend - depositing about 72.92 million CRV and borrowing about 16.5 million US dollars, with a health factor of 1.1, which means that as long as CRV falls less than 10%, it will be liquidated....

In addition, the 19.48 million CRV on Silo and the 46.02 million CRV on Fraxlend also have health factors below 1.13, which can be said to be surrounded by enemies, especially Fraxlend will quickly compound interest after reaching 100% utilization, raising the liquidation line~

For CRV, the story of "the wolf is coming" has been shouted too many times, and it is only a matter of time before it becomes true😅
#curve

I sorted out the data over the weekend and found an interesting research angle on the "pan-Jump series" crypto projects.

The reason is that after INJ was cleared at a floor price of around $1 last year, I had a strong urge to slap my thigh almost every month~ So I dug up Jump Trading (Jump Crypto's parent company), a key role behind Injective. Yes, Jump should not be unfamiliar to old users.

In addition to Terra, Wormhole, Pyth, and Monad, which has just completed another huge financing of $225 million, are essentially "pan-Jump series" projects.

If we count these projects, we will find that they all have some common features:

1. They are all financial-oriented & have a high starting point, and are very good at catching the market's FOMO point for narratives, such as INJ-global liquidity L1, PYTH-Chainlink & financial market data on Solana, Wormhole-full-chain interoperability, Monad-parallel EVM & 10,000 TPS Ethereum;

2. The full circulation market value (FDV) is extremely high, but the circulation market value is extremely low, which can easily discourage people. According to the latest data from CMC, even though W has been halved recently, FDV is still as high as 6.3 billion US dollars (MC is 1.1 billion US dollars), while PYTH is 6.4 billion/950 million;

3. It is precisely because the FDV/MC ratio is extremely exaggerated, so it is generally unlocked while reversely pulling up abnormally - the trend after going online is to "fall down continuously" to wash the market, then "rise in doubt" to blow up the shorts, and finally "convince people with the rise" FDV/MC approach, especially once the capital side, news side, etc. begin to catalyze, it will be determined to blow up waves of shorts and never look back~

In order to verify the speculation at that time, PYTH was tracked at the beginning of its launch, and it was speculated that it might follow the rhythm of deep fall first to wash the market and then pull up. Later, starting from November last year, PYTH fell from about 0.5 to a minimum of 0.2 (Binance contract) amid the community's applause, and finally, with the catalytic factors such as the launch of Binance spot, it was unstoppable and pulled up to a maximum of 1.1 in just two months. Above~

Having said so much, I just think that W may follow a similar path again. Students who have ideas can continue to follow it (disclaimer of interest, no marketing fees received, not holding W yet, but indeed considering buying it)😀
#INJ #wormhole #pyth

There is a high probability that zkSync will issue an airdrop within the year, and the cooperation with Nansen should be to prepare for on-chain anti-witch screening.

After all, in February 2023 before the ARB airdrop, Offchain Labs, the Arbitrum Foundation and Nansen jointly designed a token distribution model-based on the participation of community members in Arbitrum and based on the wallet’s on-chain historical activity records To allocate qualification points, any wallet address must meet at least three points standards to qualify for the airdrop.

The specific standards are mainly for all wallet addresses participating in the Arbitrum ecosystem before February 6, 2023 and after the Arbitrum One genesis block, and convert on-chain data into quantitative standards, including transactions, transmissions, logs, tracking and Nansen Other tags, etc., are combined with the previously created address list to establish a temporary model to quantitatively collect statistics on qualified on-chain behaviors.

Therefore, zkSync’s wave of good things is likely to be around the corner, and ARB’s airdrop standards will most likely be of reference significance: spanning different months, conducting more than double-digit transactions, and having a non-zero balance at the time of the airdrop snapshot, etc.~👀
#arbirtum

In the new “meme demon coin” BOME, the prices on the chain and CEX are going back and forth:

Before 1.18:00, before BOME broke through 0.02 U, the price on the chain was about 20% higher than that on CEX, so when the chain broke through 0.02 U, CEX was only about 0.017 U;

Around 2.18:00, BOMB on CEX followed through and broke through 0.2 U, and quickly reached 0.025 U, and then fell back to around 0.2 U. However, at this time, the chain fell back to around 0.18 U, and CEX was 10% higher than the chain;

As of the time of writing, the price difference between the two has narrowed significantly, with CEX at a slight premium. During this reversal process, the volume of CEX is clearly accelerating and expanding, and it has begun to surpass the chain at the 15-minute line, so as 20:30 approaches, BOME’s pricing power begins to shift to CEX, wait and see tonight😀 #BOME

It is once again confirmed that the funding rate is one of the best funding observation tools.

Starting at noon on March 13, BTC has been fluctuating in a wide range of 70,000 USDT-73,000 USDT for more than 32 hours. During this period, the funding rate has been higher than 30% (the highest is even above 80%), which means that the bulls have been losing blood. Just as a friend said in the comment area of ​​the original post: "It can't keep rising. I pay dozens of U in capital fees a day. I can't sustain it if the currency price doesn't rise." With a profit of 1,000u, the rate was charged me 480u.”

What's the meaning? If the rising momentum continues to fail, no one can stand such a high fee rate. Therefore, on March 14, although BTC broke through the upper edge of the shock range (73,000 USDT), it briefly surged to 73700 USDT, but then fell back again, which was a clear exit signal:

The bulls are gradually showing signs of fatigue in this tug-of-war and have been unable to break through. However, they have to continue to pay the shorts an annualized long cost of more than 30%. In this kind of stalemate war of attrition, time is the friend of short sellers. Once some bulls start to take the lead in closing their positions and running away, it will trigger a domino stampede, with a drop of at least 5%-10%.

Therefore, in terms of investment performance-price ratio, the performance-price ratio of perp is not as good as that of put here, especially the doomsday virtual value put. A few lots per day, using limited losses to earn excess returns - once there is a 5%-10% drop, the returns will be double rise.

The funding rate is bearish + the doomsday put is self-defense, and it has been tried and true.
友情提示下风险：BTC 和 ETH 的资金费率，已连续 32 小时处于 30% 以上水平（最高甚至在 80% 以上），多头是一直在失血。
#BTC #期权

The Dencun upgrade was officially activated last night, and Starknet became the biggest winner so far:
​
Data shows that Starknet’s daily average handling fee dropped from US$0.98 to US$0.13, the largest drop. It is no wonder that STRK began to become extremely strong in the past few days—from 1.7 USDT to 2.6 USDT in a few days, an increase of more than 50%.
​
With the subsequent gradual integration of each L2, the subsequent impact on the L2 pattern deserves special attention - the fee changes of other L2s depend on their respective support progress for EIP-4844 and the impact of the blob fee mechanism.
​
Although it is impossible to say who will be the biggest winner in a short period of time, it is worth continuing to track through data tools to seize the next "STRK" layout opportunity in order to profit from it.
#Starkent #L2

After THORChain launched a Ponzi-like lending mechanism in August last year, RUNE was destined to spiral upward in the context of a bull market/flooding liquidity:

Using RUNE as the transmission medium for the entire collateral lending process, it essentially uses "DEX (THORSwap) + Terra-like mechanism (RUNE-THOR stable currency module)" to complete the lending process:

The collateral (BTC) is first converted into RUNE on THORSwap, then minted into THOR through the RUNE-THOR stable currency module, and then THOR is converted into ETH to complete the process of lending ETH with BTC as collateral.

In this way, during the entire process, a large amount of RUNE will be minted into THOR due to borrowing needs, which means that as long as the amount of THORChain borrowing increases, RUNE will be destroyed in large quantities → push up the price of RUNE to achieve a "sustainable" improved version of LUNA/UST (RUNE/THOR ) Tiyunzong.

After the launch of THORChain lending on August 21, in less than 5 months, the total lending scale exceeded 40 million US dollars. Judging from the price performance of RUNE, it also exceeded 11 U from 1.6 U, an increase of 7 times~#rune #thorchain

Friendly reminder of risks: The funding rates of BTC and ETH have been above 30% for 32 consecutive hours (the highest is even above 80%), and bulls have been losing blood.

The key is in the next trading day of this week. If the BTC price still stagnates and fluctuates between 70,500 USDT and 73,000 USDT, and the upward momentum cannot break through, then the bulls will lose too much blood. Once some bulls start to take the lead in closing their positions and running away, it will trigger Dominoes, bulls stampede until the levers are all cleared.

This was the case on December 9th and 10th, 2023 (Saturday and Sunday) - bulls suffered more than 30% of the long cost and lost blood for several days, and the price failed to break through for two days over the weekend, and finally on Monday In the early morning, a $3,000 level (8%) smash was launched.

Today is the 4th anniversary of "March 12", but I haven't seen overwhelming media articles. There are countless summaries and reflections on previous years. It's quite surprising. Sure enough, rising prices are the best "market opium."

4 years ago today, Bitcoin, which had been in decline for a week, dropped from US$7,600 to as low as US$3,600 (the lowest spot on Binance was 3,782 USDT), and the entire network liquidated more than 20 billion yuan.

What’s even more frightening is that too many people increased their leverage at that time, betting that it would not fall below 5,000 US dollars and hit the bear market low of 2019. This led to the tragedy of “more kills more”: BTC liquidity was rapid under the serial liquidation. Exhaustion, selling, short selling, continuous trampling, leverage killing leverage, and ultimately killing all the bulls in the market.

This tragic plunge, which has been recorded in the history of the currency circle, has achieved a brutal and thorough "deleveraging" process, and of course cleared the way for Bitcoin to reach new highs in the second half of the year.

Only afterwards may we know how dangerous it was at that time - the panic of investors at that time was unstoppable, especially the liquidation during the stampede, which caused BTC to be close to the edge of returning to 0. Finally, BitMEX, which is rarely known to new users today, set the price for this time. The double avalanche of emotions hit the brakes in time, saving the BTC and crypto markets.

That is to say, after 312, BitMEX’s dominance in the contract market came to an end. Now no other contract exchange can reproduce the dominance of the year, and there may never be a 312-style super plunge~

Wow, the airdrop received 3 years ago is 280 U!

DeGate is the ZK Rollup order book DEX made by Gulu (the founder of Bihu, which is well known to all old leeks). Two days ago, it finally opened DG applications, as long as it meets the standards in the social media issuance in 2021 (has been issued before 2021 Encrypt related posts) and participate in the lottery draw, you can go to your own address (https://degate.com/socialNetworkOffering), and the minimum guarantee for a single number is 500 DG.

I had 3 social accounts at the time (two Twitter, 1 Weibo) that met the standards, and received 500, 500, and 1,500 coins respectively, for a total of 2,500 coins. The application fee was uniformly 80 DG, so I received a total of 2,260 DG. Based on the current unit price of 0.129 U, it is about 280 U.

However, the cross-chain handling fee for withdrawing to the exchange is about 30 U.S. dollars, so the actual amount you get is 250 U. However, after all, it was so long ago that some friends may have forgotten which address was registered at that time. I even saw some people misunderstanding it. I deleted the old address....

This also gave us a little experience. Any address that has interacted with airdrops or has rich traces on the chain must be backed up (I usually use two devices + paper). You can also buy a hardware wallet and open a few more wallets. Make a note of the address (OneKey + Little Fox is very useful), so that unnecessary losses can be avoided if similar situations occur later.

In just one month, the BTC holdings of 9 new spot Bitcoin ETFs will surpass MicroStrategy and achieve a flip:

MicroStrategy currently ranks first among listed companies’ BTC holdings with 190,000 BTC ($8.36 billion), with an average purchase price of $31,224.

What’s interesting is that its total market value is only US$7 billion, that is, the value of its BTC holdings is even higher than its total market value, and its “price-to-book ratio” is less than 1.

The reason behind it is also very simple. Before the ETF was passed, many investors allocated MicroStrategy as a "quasi-Bitcoin ETF". Now with Tiantian, it has naturally become Mrs. Niu.
#etf

We need to pay attention to the "grey rhino" risk of USDC: New York Community Bank (NYCB) stock price fell more than 70% in a week, and fell more than 8% after opening tonight. The market speculates that a new round of U.S. small bank crisis is brewing.

As early as June 2022, NYCB reached a cooperation with Circle and became the USDC reserve custodian...

We must know that Circle was unfortunately in trouble during the Silicon Valley banking crisis last year. I can only say that Circle’s vision in choosing partners is really accurate... #内容挖矿 #USDC