It has been 40 days since the release of the view of the top of $BNB on June 19. It has fallen from $600 to $400, a full 30% drop. Now it has completely shown a downward trend. It is expected to return to the peak in half a year.

The next rebound high of $530 is still a short opportunity. I hope you are still active in the market in a few months. In the future, you will feel more and more that only by living long can you become a winner.

Don't hype good news anymore. All good news is a horn to send you away in the face of a downward trend. Light asset trading should be the next safe way to deal with the market.

The long and short signals reversed! You have to fly!

The weekly chart closed with a bullish K-line combination, and the closing price was above the 120-day moving average and the lower track of the channel. This is a signal of stopping the decline and stabilizing. Don't be bearish anymore.

The daily chart trend is extremely fierce. This wave of rise BTC is expected to reach a short-term high of 67K and start to pull back. The pullback target reference is between 62K-63K. This range is also an opportunity for students who have not boarded the train.

Removing the seat belt and expecting takeoff, are you really not afraid of eternal damnation?

In the current market, there are still many bloggers who insist that 53K is the bottom and continue to sing bullish, letting the leeks enter the market. I don’t know whether it is because of the irrationality caused by being deeply trapped or the subjective will of not admitting defeat.

When you think it is the bottom and that the bull market is still advancing, you will find all kinds of good news to verify your point of view. This is a very terrible thing. There is no real understanding of what to do with the trend.

And the leeks are the ones who suffer!

You can be bullish, but you can’t blindly chase the long without risk awareness. Fund management and position control are your seat belts before takeoff. Many people have now removed their seat belts. The reason is that they think the seat belts are too heavy and not conducive to takeoff.

Let's talk about the market:

Bitcoin fell below 58K, which means that it took more than three months to complete the exchange of chips in the top area. Most retail investors held chips at 60K-70K, and of course they were trapped.

I thought it would stop falling and stabilize at 61500, but it has not broken through the 120-day moving average. Instead, a bearish pattern appeared at the rebound position, which is basically the same as the trend in November 21. History is really repeating itself.

Bitcoin accelerated its decline again today. Touching 52K will be a short-term low, but this position is a decline relay, not the bottom of this wave of decline; this does not affect the short-term operation at this position to bet on a rebound.

The strong rebound at the mid-term level, Jiu Ge believes, will appear around 45K. At this position, there will be a good strengthening trend. Large funds should enter the market later, not at the current node.

It is expected that this wave of adjustment will end at the end of July.

Risk and risk control!

Always the first priority, even if 90% of people including Brother Jiu think that the bull market has not ended.

But I will not be obsessed with whether the bull market has ended or not.

Because when we confirm that the bull market has ended, we are actually deeply trapped and unable to move. At that time, it will lose its due meaning to talk about it. The market has evolved step by step, from a bear market to a bull market, from a bull market to a bear market, there will always be a beginning that you cannot predict.

BTC has fallen hard enough, and has tested the support below 60K again. If it really breaks through 60K, it will be troublesome, and a double top pattern will be formed on the weekly chart. Technically, it will have to go down to a higher level;

However, even if it does not break through 60K, this kind of fall and rebound strength are worrying. First, it fell below the 120-day bull-bear line of 63,000, then it fell below the reverse arc falling target of 61,500, and thirdly, it fell below 60K. It is also rare to fall through several key supports at once, which reminds me of the saying that "support is meant to be broken."

In fact, we should not overestimate our tolerance, and we must set a stop loss when we should. If Bitcoin cannot recover 61,500 and 63,000 this week, then it is only a matter of time before it breaks through 60K, and a double top will be formed on the weekly chart. Once a double top is formed, it means that Bitcoin will test 52K, 48K, and 40K.

However, this situation has not happened yet. I just want to remind you not to overestimate your risk tolerance. You must set a stop loss and pay close attention to the effectiveness of 60K support this week and when 63K will be recovered.

Let's talk about the current ETH price trend:

If Sun Yuchen does not cover his ETH position, I will still insist on entering the spot at 3100, mainly based on the positive arc structure at the top and the 4H chart breaking the 3400 point lower rail support, and will fall another channel later.

Now Sun Yuchen's average price for covering his position is 3500 points. After seeing 3420 in the morning, he broke through and broke the lower rail, resulting in a stop loss. It seems that he still can't rush to enter the market. The support below is 3289 and 3090U.

$ETH

$BNB 721U should be its highest point for a long time. It is not as rumored that BNB, as the leader of platform coins, will lead the second half of this bull market. This time it may disappoint everyone.

Unfortunately, it did not continue to strengthen and lead the market forward, but chose to break down, and even showed a long-term divergence until 520. There was a decent rebound. A rebound is a rebound, not a new high.

#BNB

Let's talk about OMNI, which has been relatively strong recently:

This rebound also followed the bottom divergence formed by the market and became stronger. It started to fall again near the upper track of the channel. A low multiple short order was placed last week. The target of this wave of decline is near 14U.

BTC rebound is limited. After the decline relay, the daily chart will continue to fall:

1. Currently, it is at the lower track support of the 4H chart channel. At this position, a bullish K-line combination of the rising sun appears, but the rebound strength has become weak. The upper strong pressure of 67300U has not been touched and it has begun to fall.

2. In the 30-minute trend, Bitcoin has touched the upper track of the channel and formed a bearish divergence pattern. The short-term decline target for the day is 65500U.

This position will be the top priority. If it breaks again, a new downward wave will start. Is the target of 65000 falling below 60K far away?

If the bottom is tested again this weekend, there may be a small rebound, and the rebound strength should not be too small; to form a daily level of strength, it is necessary to break through the 30-day moving average. Note that the current price cannot be overly bearish. The daily chart's downside target remains unchanged, but it does not affect the trend of short-term rebound.

The pressure level focuses on 67,300 and 66,300.

Let me talk about the revision of ETH's trend:

The previous view was to buy at the bottom of the 6H channel lower track 3500. Yesterday, it rebounded to 3660U and started to fall again. If it loses 3500 points, the future market will be terrible.

If it loses 3500 points, ETH's new falling target will be 3000-3100, which means that yesterday's pull-up was an escape opportunity. What is the logic supporting this view?

The big cake is in the reverse arc. Yesterday, it rebounded to the neckline and inserted a pin to start a second decline. However, ETH is in the positive arc, which is also a sign of decline. Yesterday's rebound also touched the neckline 3660U and ended.

After breaking 3500 points, the falling target of the positive arc is: between 3000-3100, and the previously established 6H channel lower track support 3500 is invalid.

Patiently pay attention to the 3500 point defense battle in the next two days.

#ETH

ETH has fallen to 3520. Spot buying is the main thing. Don’t be bearish anymore. Now the price comes first. Generally, if it falls before an important event, there will be a rebound opportunity after the event.

Pay attention to the release of tomorrow’s CPI data and wait for the rebound!

The whale is running away! ONDO whales have begun to gradually ship out, and the current price has reached a relatively high point. After breaking through 1.0U, we can enter the market at 10.05 and reach the highest price of 1.49U. We remind you to leave the market and eat up the profits of the two channels.

At present, the trend of stepping back is inevitable, and it is expected to stop falling near 1.20U, which is the lower track position of the expansion channel. As for whether to buy or not, we still have to wait for the unified layout signal.

This time BTC is really going to fly!

BTC is going to create a new historical high this time. BNB has taken the lead in breaking through the upper track of the triangle and reaching the position of 700 US dollars. Our ambush area is 590 US dollars. As a huge market value, BNB's market value has increased by 20%, and there is still no sign of stopping the decline. The next target is 770U.

The surge in BNB has also driven the tokens of the Binance ecosystem, such as CKB, FLOKI, etc., which have risen by more than 20% in this round.

Although ETH, as a passive, has not fallen to the right level, it has also been pulled up by the big cake. It is expected that this wave will also hit the previous high of 4K. At the same time, Bitcoin will sprint to the historical high of 81K. Hold the BTC in your hand, and the technically accelerated rise pattern is ready.

Note: In addition, the previous view that ETH has not fallen to the right level needs to be adjusted accordingly: this time ETH will be dragged up to 4K or even break the historical high, but its performance is still weaker than BNB and BTC.

Technical analysis opinions on PENDLE:

At the end of April, it broke through the lower track of the expansion channel and fell below the 30-day moving average. The subsequent rebound was also suppressed at this position, and then created a new low, falling two channels.

After breaking through the benchmark channel and the 30-day moving average in mid-May, it stepped back to this area in early June, which is now, to confirm the effectiveness of the breakthrough. This is the same as the break at the end of April. The rebound is also to confirm the effectiveness of the break.

Therefore, the current price trend of $PENDLE encounters double support to stop the decline and rebound. The upward high point is 7.2U and the lower support level is 5.75U. It basically consolidates and oscillates in this range, with an amplitude of about 25%.

Trading strategy: You can sell high and buy low at present! Buy on the lower track and resolutely leave the upper track.

Risk point: It is possible to break the 30-day moving average and fall to around 5.35U. This position is the neckline, and the support is also very strong. After all, the neckline is larger than the sky.

Even if it breaks, it doesn't matter, you can continue to hold. The final bullish defense is to effectively break the neckline of 5.32U, otherwise you can continue to hold or increase your position.

Now BTC and ETH have diverged. BTC has shown a strong upward trend. Although it closed with a long upper shadow yesterday, the entity is not small and has formed an accelerated upward moving average pattern;

However, ETH has shown an abnormal weakness. Not only has the daily chart indicator shown a dead cross bearish trend, but the moving average is also about to cross to form a resonance decline; the hourly chart has performed well, forming a bullish Pinbar signal. It is obviously a rise with volume, but it is also difficult to resist the pressure of the bears.

In this wave of market, I still think that ETH has not fallen, while Bitcoin seems to have fallen to the right position and is entangled. I don’t know how this wave of market will balance the trend of the two.

If the trend of the second child belonging to the first child is followed, Ethereum will be pulled up, and the extreme high point of this month is 4K, and then continue to go down and consolidate in a large range.

If the first child keeps consolidating, the second child quickly inserts down to recover the decline, just like the heaven and earth needle formed a few hours before the last ETF was passed, which can also be justified.

Or, I analyzed it wrong.

The turning point to reverse the unfulfilled view is: Can the golden cross of the 6H chart be confirmed!

#ETH #BTC

ETH is still quite strong in 6H. Pay attention to whether MACD can form a golden cross in the next 6H and break through the upper track of the oscillation box at 3840U. What will happen if it breaks through? Test 4K.

If it does not break through and falls to the lower track of the box at 3710U, MACD will reject the golden cross, and it is time to test the strength of the bulls.

Whether it will attack first or retreat first depends on this week, but I didn’t expect that the neckline support of 3700 points is really strong, and I didn’t expect to encounter stubborn resistance.

$ETH

ETH has reached the first falling target, and after a slight rebound, it continues to fall. The bottom point is around 3470U.

Wait patiently for the target position.

However, there is another voice in the market, is it possible to stop falling at 3700 points and rebound to 4K?