Skepticism Sauce for Bitcoin Burgers

Over the past two days, two pieces of news have come out that have been widely circulated by the crypto community with great enthusiasm:

➡️Trump paid for burgers 🍔 with Bitcoin.
➡️The state of Louisiana has begun accepting cryptocurrencies as a means of payment for government services.

All Eyez On Me, NASDAQ

The behavior of quotes described in the previous article was realized in just a few hours. After profit fixing, new growth began↗️. Well, simply because there are no reasons for a fall - the US economy is strong, inflation is falling, as are Fed rates. The perfect combo.

Jerome Powell's Key Points

▪️ The economy overall remains resilient.
▪️ Today's decision reflects confidence that stability in the labour market can be maintained.
▪️ Inflation has fallen significantly, but still exceeds the target level.
▪️ The labor market has weakened and no longer looks so overheated.

Fed Rate Scenarios

Let's consider several possible scenarios:

1️⃣A 50 bp rate cut will lead to impulsive growth in both the stock market and crypto.
➡️Our assessment of the probability of such a scenario: 30%

2️⃣50 bp rate cut, stock market growth and cryptocurrency fall (maybe after the first green impulsive candle). Oddly enough, such a scenario has the right to exist. The fact is that cryptocurrencies have been trying to take into account the 50 bp rate increase since last Friday. And after the actual event, there are no new drivers for growth in the coming days. It is also worth remembering that even after a 50 bp cut, the Fed rates will still remain high. That is, cheap money will not immediately flow like a river into the market. Accordingly, the buy the rumor, sell the news algorithm is implemented. The fall will not be protracted.

🦢 Where is the next black swan?

Nassim Taleb's book "The Black Swan" has made such an impression on economists and financiers that now everyone is trying to predict the next trigger of the crisis.

➡️ In our country, for example, apocalyptic scenarios have been coming out for many months now - the inevitable devaluation of the ruble, the collapse of the real estate market, freezing of deposits, etc. However, time passes, and there are no prerequisites for all this.

🐃 Bank of America Sees Investor Sentiment Improve for First Time Since June (Fund Manager Survey)

The managers surveyed manage assets worth $632,000,000,000+.

▫️Optimistic sentiment in the markets is caused by expectations of a Fed rate cut.

▫️Recession is still one of the main fears of investors, but those surveyed do not expect it in the next 12 months.

The worse, the better...worse...

The other day, there was a troll 🫠 in the comments who posted a copypasta from somewhere along the lines of “you don’t understand anything, the worse it is for the markets now, the better”. Without trying to delve into the meaningless text of the troll himself, let’s analyze the current situation from the point of view of the concept “the worse for the economy, the better for the markets”. After all, we ourselves often quoted it in the past months.

🥇 Gold prices hit all-time highs, topping $2,600 last week

The growth has already attracted everyone's attention. And it will continue. Let's take a closer look at the reasons - why is gold growing?

▪️Interest rates in the US are falling. The Fed rate hasn't even started to be lowered yet, and gold is already breaking record after record. Plus the economy is slowing down.

⚡️The US Secret Service has admitted that it did not conduct a preliminary search of the golf club grounds where the second assassination attempt on former US leader and presidential candidate Donald Trump took place, the New York Times writes.

"The Secret Service did not search the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Sunday before former President Donald Trump arrived to play there, an admission that has thrust the already-under-pressure agency back into the spotlight two months after a similar episode in Pennsylvania," the publication said.