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ivanxguo
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Investment Consultant (Certificate No. S0490616050001);Options Investment Strategist of Shanghai Stock Exchange (Certificate No. Y201507036)
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The forward earnings per share (EPS) of the MSCI US Index continues to hit record highs, while the forward EPS in other global regions remains relatively stable.
This phenomenon indicates that the overall profitability of US stocks not only significantly leads other global markets but that this advantage is gradually expanding. Compared to both A-shares and stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Europe, the profitability gap of the US market is further widening, demonstrating its exceptional growth resilience and continuous improvement in profitability.
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This phenomenon indicates that the overall profitability of US stocks not only significantly leads other global markets but that this advantage is gradually expanding. Compared to both A-shares and stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Europe, the profitability gap of the US market is further widening, demonstrating its exceptional growth resilience and continuous improvement in profitability.
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Gold prices rebounded quickly after hitting a low in the early trading. After confirming the market bottoming signal, traders gradually entered the market to buy at the bottom, driving the gold price to show a significant upward trend. At the same time, the United States announced the lifting of export restrictions on long-range missiles to Ukraine, which triggered market concerns about the geopolitical situation and to a certain extent promoted the rise in risk aversion sentiment, further supporting the strength of gold prices. From a technical perspective, gold has gained buying power near key support levels, and the momentum of short-term rebound has increased; from a fundamental analysis, the superposition effect of geopolitical factors and market concerns about the risk of economic recession may provide continued safe-haven demand for gold.
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The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen to 4.43%, close to the psychological barrier of 4.5%, the highest level since June. The Federal Reserve has recently cut interest rates to cope with the economic slowdown, but too much interest rate cuts may bring inflation risks. Once the yield exceeds 4.5%, it may trigger two situations: one is that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to control economic overheating; the other is that the confidence in U.S. bonds is lost, leading to a large-scale sell-off, pushing the yield further up. Trump's tax cuts and loose policies have pushed down interest rates, and their impact has not disappeared yet. If the yield exceeds 4.5%, it may trigger the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates or sell off U.S. bonds, causing market volatility.
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Breaking news: In October 2024, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.6%, higher than 2.4% in September, ending a seven-month slowdown in inflation. The Federal Reserve has previously cut interest rates twice in a row to respond to the downward trend in inflation. Although inflation has not reached the 2% target, the overall cooling momentum is still seen as a positive sign. As inflation picks up, the market is paying attention to the Fed's future response strategy and the economic policy changes that may be brought about by Trump's second term. Currently, the market expects that the Fed will not cut interest rates by more than 1 percentage point by the end of 2025. This change has increased market uncertainty, especially in the context of the Trump administration's policies.
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When Trump came to power, the market was generally optimistic about risky assets, and precious metals such as gold experienced a wave of declines. This is a normal reaction. At present, the market is optimistic about the US stock market, and many people have gone long on US stocks, expecting that Trump's tax cuts will further stimulate the economy. However, with the expansion of the fiscal deficit caused by the tax cuts and the breakthrough of the government debt ceiling, inflationary pressure may rise again. At that time, the safe-haven property of gold will be favored by the market again, and the price may rise sharply again, similar to 2018 and 2019.
The key lies in whether the logic is correct and whether the market trend is in line with expectations. For assets such as gold, patient layout is the key. Investors do not need to rush for quick success, because in the long-term game of the market, the principle of "gold will always shine" still applies.
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The key lies in whether the logic is correct and whether the market trend is in line with expectations. For assets such as gold, patient layout is the key. Investors do not need to rush for quick success, because in the long-term game of the market, the principle of "gold will always shine" still applies.
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Macroeconomic factors affecting Bitcoin prices
Macroeconomic factors affecting Bitcoin prices
I will briefly summarize the macro data I observe daily and some of the judgment methods based on their possible impact on the price of Bitcoin. They are not necessarily correct, nor are they absolute influences that are either one or the other. Since the weights are unknown and multiple factors may be superimposed at the same time, it is not possible to rely on a single factor to make a judgment on the rise or fall of the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, I generally choose indicators with higher probability or use cross-validation to improve the judgment success rate, thereby guiding medium- and long-term transactions.
A better way to utilize these indicators is to use more data analysis tools to track the price changes of Bitcoin behind the changes in these indicators, give these indicators dynamic adjustment weights, and simulate a judgment model with a relatively higher accuracy.
I will briefly summarize the macro data I observe daily and some of the judgment methods based on their possible impact on the price of Bitcoin. They are not necessarily correct, nor are they absolute influences that are either one or the other. Since the weights are unknown and multiple factors may be superimposed at the same time, it is not possible to rely on a single factor to make a judgment on the rise or fall of the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, I generally choose indicators with higher probability or use cross-validation to improve the judgment success rate, thereby guiding medium- and long-term transactions.
A better way to utilize these indicators is to use more data analysis tools to track the price changes of Bitcoin behind the changes in these indicators, give these indicators dynamic adjustment weights, and simulate a judgment model with a relatively higher accuracy.
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