Some summaries, not investment advice.

2017 was the ICO era, and public fundraising directly replaced VC and PE, so the bull market in 2017-2018 belonged to the OG platform and proxy investment. As long as you grab a share, you can make money.

In 2021, DeFi rose, and the actual market began to diversify and divert. As long as you run fast, you can make money.

At that time, IEO could also negotiate with the project party to release a part of the shares to users, so the general pricing was low when it went online, and buying new instead of old was also a typical feature of this period.

But now IEO is generally considered to have legal risks in most countries, so it can only be airdropped and market-priced, which means that if the circulation is large and the opening price is low, the project will perform relatively steadily, such as BB and Lista, but compared with 21 years, it is still too fast and lacks a sufficient wash process.

The rise in 2024 was initiated by BTC ETF. The smart money in this wave belongs to the king-level projects and Lumao Studio. They love each other and have created a wave of beautiful data together. On the one hand, the project parties can raise more money from VCs (if you observe the top VCs in the market, they are all over a billion US dollars, which will indeed push up the pricing of good projects), and on the other hand, the project parties with money and users are full of confidence. There are millions of users on the chain. It doesn’t matter if they don’t go on a certain platform. There are many CEXs to go on. If there is no CEX, there are still DEXs. At worst, there are Dexes on their own chains.

Trading platforms do not have pricing power, so for projects with high valuations, everyone should look at the fundamentals, not just the market value, but also the circulation.

Today, the market has indeed changed again. The fratricide between Lumao Studio and L2 projects has turned into a farce, and the Lumao era may be coming to an end. At present, there are more professional players in both the primary and secondary markets. They have various tools to hedge risks, but they have also expanded the market size. As an ordinary investor, the ICO in 2017, the IEO in 2021, the nesting dolls, and even the 2023 strategy of making money may not be suitable for today's market.

Is it a healthier market if there is a lack of VC investment and fewer project parties? In every cycle, there will be some projects that cross the bull and bear markets, and there are also countless king-level projects that fall on the road. Whether it is web2 or web3, there are very few successful startups, and projects that cross the gap and cross the cycle are even rarer.

Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market.

For projects you are not optimistic about, in addition to buying long, you can also sell short.
Low-risk option: financial management.

Recently, some friends have been discussing what coins should and should not be listed on Binance. I will try to explain: The cryptocurrency world is a free market. The liquidity and trading volume of CEX and CEX, CEX and DEX, and various trading platforms are a total pool. CEX is not a closed market. Even if Binance does not list these projects, these projects still exist. Trading volume and funds will also be diverted to the corners of the entire industry. In addition to the unlocking of VC-invested projects, Meme coins, chain-based local dogs, wool-pulling, and capital plates will all be diverted. After the ETF is approved, the traditional financial market will also divert funds that flow directly to the cryptocurrency world. Let's look at VC again. Some VCs are indeed the core reason for the inflated prices, but VCs generally raise funds from LPs for a 7-year lock-up period of 4+3 years, collecting management fees + dividends; VCs are generally unlocked one year after TGE (not all), so many VCs in the cryptocurrency circle are also going bankrupt, and some VCs' LP investments in the cryptocurrency circle may also return to zero; and project parties that have received large amounts of financing have more possibilities to cross the bubble cycle, but the fundamentals of the currency price and governance model are determined by the project party, and there is no standard answer. Therefore, before investing, everyone needs to do a more in-depth analysis of the project tokens, such as token application scenarios, release cycles, holding ratios, and initial circulation. There is no standard answer.
The rise of Defi has brought more liquidity to the industry and increased freedom, which has increased the difficulty for CEX to try to formulate rules, but this is precisely the charm of the free market in the cryptocurrency circle. DYOR

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