$ETH is currently in a weak position. It is clear that it is still pressed below the EMA200 (white line), in stark contrast to SOL, which has long stood above the EMA200. Given the current situation, ETH's performance is indeed lagging behind SOL quite a bit.

For ETH to reverse its weakness, it can only do so when it breaks through and firmly stands above the EMA200, which may allow it to escape its current weak state (price pattern + EMA confirmation). Looking at the blue simulated candlestick in the chart, if ETH can break through and stabilize as expected, we might see it enter a truly strong market.

However, right now, ETH is stuck in a consolidation zone (yellow box), having made multiple attempts to break through the EMA200 without success. If it continues to be blocked at this key level, not only will it fail to strengthen, but it may also further decline. For the current ETH, it is obviously impossible to talk about strength without breaking through the EMA200, let alone any profit effect.

Bitcoin $btc has been consolidating for over 220 days, and the price still hasn't broken through its previous high, indicating that the market is still in a state of volatility.

Therefore, the current market should be treated with a mindset of either volatility or upward volatility, rather than prematurely expecting a bull market where prices only rise.

At this time, staying clear-headed is more important than being overly optimistic.

The key is not to have anxiety about missing out, and you shouldn't hold onto positions stubbornly. The rise in a bull market is a process measured by months, during which there will be multiple entry opportunities, far more than you might think.

This chart illustrates the trends of three major assets—Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500—all displaying the classic 'cup and handle' pattern. Simply put, this pattern involves a price decline over a period of time, forming a large arc-shaped 'cup', followed by a brief pullback, resembling the 'handle'. When the price breaks through the upper resistance line of the 'handle', it typically indicates that a strong upward movement is imminent.

Let's compare:
1. $BTC: A major bottom has formed, currently at the end of the 'handle', feeling poised to break through, with an arrow pointing straight up.

2. Gold: A breakout has occurred, with prices soaring, confirming the bullish strength of this pattern.

3. S&P 500: Following the same path, it has continued to rise after the breakout, with the market rhythm moving steadily upward.

The 'cup and handle' pattern is relatively rare in the market, and it may be a bit difficult to understand, especially since price patterns can often be somewhat subjective. However, it doesn't need to be overly complicated; you can break it down into multiple 'head and shoulders' patterns. The overall idea is to first establish a base, then pull back, and finally break through, accelerating the upward trend.

Price patterns are ultimately a subjective perspective on market observation, and the comparison of the three charts above helps everyone understand that this phenomenon exists, but in actual operations, it is necessary to consider other factors for judgment.

#RAY is a lottery coin that I pay attention to for the following reasons:

1. Surge performance: In the 131 trading days after October 2023, RAY soared 2,038%, surpassing most altcoins, with a clear trend and smooth rise.

2. EMA long arrangement: The weekly EMA moving average is in a long arrangement, while most altcoins are still short, which indicates possible upward momentum.

3. Oversold rebound: In the past year, RAY has only had two weekly oversold signals, and both were accompanied by significant rebounds.

Please note that RAY is a lottery coin.

I won't leave until the banker leaves

I hold longer than the banker

The banker's bands are my trends

The banker looks at me like a ghost

How do leeks lose money?

I believed the nonsense of the analysts above.

"Don't participate if you don't understand the market" seems to be a rational choice on the surface, but many people say this not because of the lack of trading opportunities within the strategy framework, but out of emotional fear and disgust.

In other words, they don't choose to wait and see because of the complexity of the market, but because they avoid the market because of fear of volatility and uncertainty.

In the end, how can you make money if you are afraid?

Fear is the mind-killer.

Short order logic: Based on the resonance signal of weekly overbought + 4-hour overbought, choose to short.

There are two expectations for the future trend of #REEF :

1. Repeating the trend of TRB that year, REEF will enter the oscillation mode from now on, and will rise again after a month of sideways trading.

2. Replicate WAVES or GAS, after experiencing the highlight moment, it will gradually weaken, and then fall back to the previous low point.

#BTC 4H

Bitcoin hit the 4-hour overbought area again and came close to the previous high on September 28. Partially take profit on long orders and adjust the passive stop loss to below EMA20.

Currency selection formula: BTC → ALT → ALT TOP 5 → BTC

If you don’t know which asset to trade, choose BTC first.

If you think BTC’s volatility is too small, trade altcoins.

If altcoins are not volatile enough, choose the leader among altcoins.

If the leader of altcoins rises too much, returning to BTC may be a more stable choice.

#btc

#JUP 1D

The price pattern converges to the end, pay attention first, find a good position, and then wait for an opportunity to take action later.

#SUI 1W

Weekly previous high area + weekly overbought signal = bullish risk area

#BTC 4H

The first three overbought signals of Bitcoin were accompanied by sharp pullbacks. Will this time be an exception?

As usual, no predictions, partial profit taking, and upward stop loss.

When trading altcoins, you must not only classify them by sector, but also pay attention to the order of launch.

The first altcoin to be launched is undoubtedly because of the attention of funds, which is also the target we should focus on. At this time, don't subjectively think that "pull up is for shipment" or "it has risen too much and cannot participate", and don't think that "ambushing those altcoins that have not yet started" is a better choice.

In fact, the funds that drive the fluctuation of the currency have made a choice, we just need to follow the trend and follow.

If you subjectively ambush those altcoins that have not been launched, there is a high probability that you will encounter those that will never be launched, and the ambush will only change your posture and be beaten no matter how long you ambush.

Bringing stop loss and following the trend is far more effective than subjective judgment.

#neiro #sui

The daily price patterns of #SUI and #TIA are quite interesting to compare.

Watch closely first and wait for an oversold signal to appear at the 1-hour or 4-hour level before considering going long.

A complete transaction consists of two steps:

1. Start paying attention when environmental signals appear

2. Start executing when detailed signals appear

Environmental signals include but are not limited to: naked K, line drawing, indicators, news, etc.
Detailed signals include: key signals, market data, high odds positions, fund allocation, etc.

You actually only complete the first step when you open an order based on the news, that is, start paying attention to the target. What really determines whether you can make money is the execution of the second step.

Analysts focus on the first step, while traders focus on the second step.

#btc

#REEF 1W

REEF has been rising for 7 consecutive weeks and finally entered the weekly overbought zone. I am not sure whether it can continue to rise, but the risk has already appeared. Therefore, partial profit taking and stop loss are the priority now. If you want to short, wait until it falls below the EMA20 moving average before taking action.

The door to upward mobility may have been closed long ago, but the fast lane to downward mobility is always green.

One order can make you feel the speed and passion of this fast lane.

Risk of each transaction = total funds × (0.5% ~ 2%)

The risk of each transaction refers to: the maximum amount of loss you can bear.

#BTC

Another way to improve your trading success rate: Don’t trust inspiration or improvisation that goes beyond the framework.

#BTC☀

#UXLINK 4H

UXLINK hits the 4-hour oversold area. Pay attention first and then find a buying point with a suitable profit and loss ratio.

The key to holding on to a "pattern order" is not the pattern, but to calculate in advance the part that may be lost after the price retracement, and have a clear idea in mind.

Formula for expected profit reduction after retracement:

Profit reduction amount = (current price - expected retracement target price) × position

1. Profit reduction amount > expectation = recalculate.

2. Profit reduction amount < expectation = continue to hold.

#btc