颜宝宝

Early web3 evangelist, senior trader, public account: Old Zhang from the Biscuit Market

btc temporarily focus on resistance at 95000/96000 support at 93000

Good morning brothers, in the early afternoon, there was a big surge in the morning,
when I wanted to get in and increase my position, there was a sudden drop.
From on-chain data, I observed that over 2000 BTC flowed into Binance at 4 AM.
In yesterday's analysis, we mentioned
that before the CPI is released, the crypto market is unlikely to surge significantly.
We will have to wait until Wednesday night at 9:30 for the CPI data to be released
before the crypto market has a chance to see a turnaround.
Why is that?
Because big funds won't act until the CPI data is released.
If the whales pump the market, it would be pointless.
In these two scenarios:
1. When market confidence is low.
2. When negative news hasn't fully played out yet.
Pumping the price would just allow people to cash out.
So we must wait until the CPI is released.
Either the negative news has to fully play out, or positive news has to lead to a major reversal.
Only then will big funds dare to make large investments.
Therefore, during these days of rapid increase, don't chase it; just wait.
Referring to yesterday's conclusion, a significant rebound is expected this week.
The probability of an increase is greater than the probability of a decrease.

BTC closing situation: For the time being, the idea is still biased towards callbacks. The pressure is 95000-96000. The support below is 93000-91500. The cottage aspect is a bit difficult. There are few contracts.

btc small-level rebound Pressure 95000-96000 Support 91500-90000 The day may mainly fluctuate Pay attention to the big non-farm payroll tonight

btc
The decline may stop at a small level. Pay attention to 94500-93000 when the price falls back. The short-term pressure is 95000-96000

2025/1/8 Accurate Market Analysis
Good afternoon, brothers. Last night a black swan came and brought the crypto market down. Are we heading into a bear market?
The U.S. job vacancy data released last night greatly exceeded expectations, indicating that companies have a high demand for hiring and the labor market has not cooled down yet.
As a result, the market has lowered expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the current outlook is quite pessimistic: no interest rate cuts before July next year is what has brought the crypto market down.
Binance had the largest trading volume in 2 months over the last 4 hours, exceeding 1.2 billion USD, significantly higher than the trading volume when it dropped to $91,000 two weeks ago.
When we are unsure of the direction, we can only study on-chain data more and see how big capital is operating.
From the on-chain data, after yesterday's sharp decline:
(1) BTC flowed out of exchanges, mainly 7,000 from Coinbase, indicating that large holders are still bottom-fishing.
(2) Stablecoins did not flow out and remained strong.
With such a large trading volume, combined with on-chain data, it feels like the drop should be about over.
Next, we will look at Friday's non-farm payrolls and employment rate; if it’s good news (40% probability), it will quickly rebound to $100,000.
If it’s bad news (60%), it may drop to $95,000 and then rebound close to the time before and after Trump took office, returning to high points.
When it's time to mine, don't hold heavy positions. The community will ride the waves with you!

Thunder Community Wealth Code: BTC
Pressure is around 103,000. Currently, the share is starting to strengthen. The ETH exchange rate is falling. It is a bit difficult to operate the copycat. Be careful not to frequently sign contracts. Pay attention to the support around 10w during the day.

Thunder Community Wealth Code: btc
Weekly view bullish, short-term view bearish, so wait for a pullback on Monday first. Support at 95000, resistance at 98800.

Good afternoon, brothers. The past two weeks have allowed everyone to hold and buy the dip.
Now it's time to reap the rewards.
Our analysis accurately predicted the market trends,
The cryptocurrency market has launched a major counterattack.
Today, the BTC mining hash rate once reached a historic high of 1000 EH/s,
which is double that of a year ago.
An increasing hash rate indicates more people are mining,
The cost for miners to obtain BTC is getting higher, which is beneficial for the price increase.
According to macromicro's calculations, the current cost for miners to obtain BTC is around $88,000.
When the BTC price significantly deviates from the miners' costs,
for example, when mining can earn over 30% (currently at $113,000),
the risk for BTC becomes very high,
because with large profits, miners will start to sell.
Currently, the BTC MACD daily chart has just formed a golden cross.
The big moves are still to come; returning to high points is not a problem.
The major trends are as follows:
(1) The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is still ongoing, with possibly three rate cuts in 2025, likely in March, June, and September.
(2) Trump is about to take office, and expectations of BTC being included in the national reserves persist (regardless of whether it can be realized).
(3) In the long term, the consensus around BTC continues to grow:
3.1 After Trump takes office, U.S. tariff policies exacerbate de-globalization, prompting other countries' central banks to buy BTC.
3.2 Expanding debt pressures affect the credit of the dollar, enhancing the status of BTC.
Be patient, hold on, don't miss out, and don't short.

GRT AI Track Edge Material Daily MACD Golden Cross Bottom Divergence Spot can enter in batches at 0.21-0.2 Stop loss at 0.195 Contract entry near 0.2 Target 0.23-0.25

The pressure pullback near BTC4h98000 is currently average on the 4h chart. Pay attention to the support near 95000 and the pressure at 98000, which remains unchanged for now.

eth Pay attention to the support at 3400; if it holds, it may continue to rise.

move You can continue to focus on 0.9-0.88 during the day.

Good afternoon, brothers. The US stock market plunged after opening last night, leading to a drop in BTC, which is also a risk asset.

On-chain data shows two trends:
(1) Stablecoin inflow for bottom fishing
(2) A total inflow of over 5000 BTC into Binance and Coinbase

Regarding ETFs, BlackRock and FBTC data have not yet been released, while other ETFs have seen outflows of $200 million.

Is there no bull market? Let's analyze from several aspects.

There are two reasons for this correction:
(1) Normal pullback after a significant increase
(2) Fluctuations after the expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts are released

However, there are several larger trends:
(1) The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is still ongoing, with the possibility of three rate cuts in 2025, potentially in March, June, and September.
(2) Trump is about to take office, and the expectation of BTC being included in national reserves is still present (regardless of whether it can be realized).
(3) In the long term, consensus on BTC continues to grow:
3.1 After Trump takes office, US tariff policies intensify de-globalization, prompting central banks of other countries to buy BTC.
3.2 Expanding debt pressure affects the credit of the US dollar, enhancing BTC's status.

Facing the 60-day moving average of BTC and a three-week-long adjustment,
A significant rebound is expected after New Year's Day.
BTC will return to the $100,000 mark.

Funds can be used to bottom fish BTC, Uni, BNB, Kaia, Doge, FTM, and other coins.
BNB has performed strongly over the past week and is expected to break through $900 in Q1 next year.

This chart records the capital inflow situation of public chains over the past month.

BASE has the highest inflow, approaching 1 billion USD, followed by SOL.

Therefore, we should pay more attention to BASE-related coins; where the money flows, there are opportunities.

We recommend BASE-related wealth codes, which still have room for growth.

Good afternoon, brothers. Generally speaking, the weekend market is the most sluggish time.
On Friday, U.S. stocks fell sharply across the board, affecting the price of BTC, which is also a risk asset.
When the market opens tomorrow,
some people may panic about the U.S. stock market's performance after it opens.
Therefore, BTC may have a small drop today, potentially retesting $93000.

BNB is quietly rising, and the daily MACD has formed a bullish crossover.
After BTC stabilizes, it will rebound, and BNB should reach $850.

FTM has not performed well, but there is no need to worry.
This coin can be manipulated from $0.27 to $1.4 by the market maker.
The market maker's strength is still substantial.
Currently, it has adjusted properly, and returning to above $1 is still easy.

We previously analyzed that USDT would rise, due to
1. The strong momentum of the U.S. economy
2. The threat of severe tariffs from elected President Trump.
Currently, the U.S. dollar index has risen to 108,
moving towards its best annual performance in nearly a decade.
However, extremes may lead to reversals; the dollar may correct partially next week.
A drop in the dollar is favorable for BTC's rise.

Therefore, our prediction for the market is as follows:
BTC may retest $93000.
In the first few days of next week, it may fluctuate while waiting for the U.S. stock market to stabilize.
After ETF funds continue to flow in, BTC will return to the $100,000 mark.
Altcoins will follow, with more altcoins rising by over 20%.

Good afternoon, brothers
, BTC hits the 100,000 mark again,
The copycat has not followed yet, and the market is short of funds.

Let's look forward to the big market, does BTC have support,
Can it break through the previous high?

Yesterday, the Russian Finance Minister said that Russia is using Bitcoin for international trade,
This is the result of legislative changes that allow such use in response to Western sanctions.
He believes that cryptocurrencies have unique advantages in mitigating risks associated with sanctions, inflation, and currency fluctuations.

This year, Russia allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade,
and took measures to legalize the mining of cryptocurrencies.

The recent strong rise in BTC may be related to the fact that Russia and Iran, countries sanctioned by the United States, secretly bought BTC.
It is unknown whether the Chinese government is secretly buying it.
But Russia is now a real hammer.

As Trump's inauguration date approaches,
some US states have begun to test the waters in advance:
Trying to include BTC in the strategic reserve of state finances.

In the past few days when BTC fell,
On December 17, Ohio proposed a bill to
establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state.

Texas proposed a bill in December to establish a Bitcoin reserve. In November, Pennsylvania proposed to use 10% of the state general fund to purchase nearly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin. By 2025, it is estimated that at least one US state will establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Cities outside the United States, such as Vancouver, may also establish Bitcoin reserves. These are all factors that drive BTC up. BTC is strong, and copycats benefit from it. Therefore, there is still room for fun in the currency circle.

Daily News 2024 12/24

Good evening brothers
Yesterday BTC dropped to a low of over $92000, but a strange phenomenon occurred this time where many altcoins remained stable during the decline
Especially our recommended BNB performed strongly, once rising close to $700
From on-chain data, there are slightly bearish signals
1. Stablecoins flowed out of exchanges, and the current reserves are at the level of December 7
2. 5000 BTC flowed into exchanges, mainly from Binance
Yesterday the ETF saw outflows exceeding $84 million, marking the third consecutive day of outflows
However, the issue is not significant
The next two days will be to defend the $92000 level
After the Christmas holiday, many large institutions are expected to return to the trading market, which will likely activate quickly and sound the counterattack horn. If BTC stabilizes without falling, even if it doesn't rise
Then it is possible to welcome a season of lucrative altcoins
Recommended dollar-cost averaging: Uni, FTM, BTC, BNB
During this period, dollar-cost averaging suggestions: Uni, FTM, BNB, BTC
Follow the rhythm of the community, escape when it's time to take profits
When it's time to mine, don’t hold too much, the community will ride the waves together with you.

Congratulations to the brothers who got on board, FXS has already made a profit

Follow the community and you won’t get lost in the cryptocurrency world. Congratulations to those who have joined FXS