[New leek experience gained from ten years and ten flatbreads] Some people may question, you have been in the currency circle for ten years, why have you not achieved financial freedom? Such doubts are very common. The definition of financial freedom varies from person to person. Some people may think that having 100 million is enough, while others may think that 30 million is enough. Often the more leek you are, the more you think about this number. For me, maybe I’m not financially free yet, but at least I have some freedom and I don’t have to live a 9-to-5 life. As for why I missed certain opportunities, I think I can briefly review my experience in the past ten years, which may give some newbies some inspiration.
1. The first time I came into contact with cryptocurrency was around 2012. At that time, I was exposed to a lot of information on the Internet due to work. I learned about Bitcoin at that time, although I didn’t understand it very well, and online payment was not very convenient, so I never purchased it. It wasn’t until Huobi was established in 2013 that there was a CEX entrance and I registered an account. I remember that the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed from a few dozen dollars to more than a hundred dollars that year. Driven by the FOMO sentiment, I bought more than a dozen.
2. Later, I felt that the growth of Bitcoin was too slow and not exciting enough, so I paid attention to Litecoin, the world’s first altcoin. To take the plunge, I exchanged some Bitcoin for Litecoin. At that time, the slogan "Bitcoin Gold, Litecoin Silver" was so loud that I myself thought that Litecoin might rise even higher. Later, everyone knew the result.
3. Next came the ICO of Ethereum. At that time, one Bitcoin could be exchanged for thousands of Ether. After research, I felt that Ethereum was completely unanchored and had unlimited issuance, unlike mining coins that had the support of computing power, so I gave up the purchase.
4. Subsequently, various exchanges began to spring up like mushrooms after a rain, and more and more counterfeit projects were launched online. I exchanged some Bitcoins for various altcoins, such as the one that claimed to do real asset mapping back then. The original currency, known as Adouyuan, such as EOS, which claims to replace Ethereum, and so on. Most dropped to near zero anyway.
5. Then came the well-known 93 Incident in 2017. That day, I experienced the feeling of being cut from the waist to the foot. In panic, I sold some more Bitcoins.
6. Later, since most cryptocurrencies were exported overseas, I basically did not study them in depth. It was not until later that FIL mining and the DeFi boom attracted my attention. Later, the owner of the Fil mining machine ran away and was severely cut off. Before he could fully experience DeFi, his wallet was stolen for more than a dozen ethers.
7. As for the liquidation of contract positions and the return to zero, these are the tuition and experience of the currency circle, and they can be said to be the same.
Ten years have passed in the blink of an eye, and when I look back at the big cakes I bought back then, I can see that ten of them have been destroyed like this. These disorganized investments or behaviors did not bring much wealth. On the contrary, once the mistake is realized and the investment strategy is adjusted, steady actions gradually bring benefits that far exceed those of random investments.
Looking back, there are a few experiences that are very valuable:
1. The currency circle is a place where cognitive ability is extremely tested. If you cannot keep up with your cognitive ability, it will be difficult to make money, or even avoid losing money. 2. If you are an ordinary person and have not received systematic trading training, even a trained trader may not be successful. So don't expect to get rich here. Of course, there are stories of getting rich every day in the currency circle, but most people will eventually fail. Therefore, you are most likely a loser. 3. Don’t have a gambler’s mentality. Gamblers always hope to win big with small bets. Because their capital is limited, they always hope to get rich in one fell swoop. However, in a zero-sum market, the money you win is the money others lose. The probability is 10% to win and 90% to lose. Can you guarantee that you will always win? 4. Don’t refuse new things, but you must also have strong learning and discerning abilities. Requires very good independent thinking spirit and learning ability. The reason why leeks are leeks is because they follow what others say and do not have independent thinking process. 5. The currency circle is a dark forest, don’t trust anyone’s words, including me. For example, FIL Miner believed what his so-called friend said, only to find out that he was just doing it to get commission points. 6. Be diligent and not lazy. If you are lazy, you deserve to be cut! I don’t mean you have a lot of leeks. Any banker will cut you because you take the initiative to lower your head to the sickle. The first thing many silly leeks say to others is what currency they recommend. Why should they recommend it to you? He doesn’t even have the most basic investment research skills and has lost his ability to learn.Coin mixing circles are not recommended. 7. Any capital can accumulate Bitcoin at any time. Many newcomers always feel that Bitcoin is too expensive, so they choose to buy other currencies, hoping to do so thousands of times in the future. When your knowledge improves, you will be determined to stock up on cakes. 8. Only invest with spare funds. If you don’t have idle funds, you need to plan your funds well and don’t take risks. 9. Don’t use leverage, don’t take risks with leverage. 10. Those who know how to buy are not as good as those who know how to sell. You must be able to identify projects and understand the timing of entry, but you must also know how to stop losses and lock in profits. If you do not stop losses and lock in profits in time, you will ultimately achieve nothing (except for long-term holdings) Bitcoin). 11. From now on, make yourself a simple cold wallet for storing coins, find an unused mobile phone, install the wallet, and then turn off the phone and disconnect from the Internet. Add a watch wallet to the hot wallet and design a regular investment plan. It’s best to lock up your cold wallet and be determined not to move. 12. Accept getting rich slowly, just like I am now. I believe that slowly hoarding Bitcoin will eventually make you rich one day, especially ordinary leeks. If you win, you cannot afford to lose.
You ask me if I regret it? Of course I regret it. If I had invested in Bitcoin, I might be free now. But there is no regret medicine in the world. The knowledge back then was limited. Even if someone told you that you should go to Allin to invest in Bitcoin, you might not dare to try it. Therefore, raising awareness is crucial. At least like me, you can become an old leek. You may have no leaves, but the roots are always there, always on the table! If these insights are helpful to you, please like them. If you haven't followed it yet, you can follow it. I will share it here whenever I have time. I also compiled some currency circle analysis tools that I have used over the years and made a small website. The address is on my avatar. The website also includes contact information for many friends who want to join the group! Thanks to Satoshi Nakamoto for inventing Bitcoin, and thanks to Binance Square for letting us meet! #BTC $BTC
What is the current market situation? I guess many investors are still confused. Why is the price of Bitcoin going up? Why is MEME going crazy? Why is my "value coin" not moving? Before answering these questions, you need to pull yourself to the perspective of God. You can clearly see that the current currency circle has been divided into Bitcoin + ETF and other two markets, and all this has been particularly obvious since the ETF's holdings surpassed Satoshi Nakamoto. For any market rise, we must analyze where the new blood comes from and who is buying it? Looking at these two markets, based on politics (election), economy (interest rate cuts, inflation), and geography (peaceful president taking office), Bitcoin ETFs have welcomed a large number of institutional clients and new users who have not entered the crypto market. New funds have continued to pour in recently. Just ask the "traditional" investors around you, Bitcoin ETFs are more in line with their needs - they can both satisfy their desire to obtain profits from the rise of Bitcoin and trade within the compliance framework, and avoid various troubles (wallets, trading account opening, etc.). The rise of Bitcoin is basically positively correlated with ETFs, which is what we see now. Bitcoin ETFs, crypto-related stocks, and Bitcoin spot holders have all reaped a wave of dividends. Based on the certainty of institutional investment, this wave of Bitcoin's rise will not be like the roller coaster of A-shares. Many sovereign funds are still rushing into the market, and there will be more and more entities like MSTR in the future. Then back to "others", that is, the traditional currency circle, because this wave of increase has attracted some new retail investors, including some users who have not been in the market for a long time. Their understanding of encryption may have just changed from "Bitcoin is a scam" to "it is a normal transaction". The first-layer and second-layer cross-chain decentralization are like a mystery to them. No matter what awesome theory is, it is not as direct as MEME's rise to convince people. The big cake is too expensive, and others can't understand it. Only MEME sees the hope of turning over, so it is reasonable for the price to rise. So how will the market go? Do these VC coins still have a chance? Due to the length of the article, I will talk about it in the next article. #超级MEME周期? #比特币搜索热度攀升
Who made money in this market? 1. Holders who are sensitive to macroeconomics and have their own analysis structure, especially those who have a thorough analysis of ETFs and the US election, and who firmly get on BTC at a good point. 2. Pure small investors who rush into MEME without thinking, with light positions, dare to go all-in, and study how to make thousands of times a hundred times a day every day. Who missed out? 1. Technical builders, holding a handful of VC coins, are still immersed in the classic model of the past four years, expecting that the big pie will collapse and the funds will overflow to their VC coins. 2. Those who open contracts to short, and most of them are gamblers who came from leeks A, thinking that once it rises, it will fall, and they think that it is their own "independent thinking" to open shorts. Why is this the case? Due to the length of the article, I will talk about it in the next article. #市场倒车ing你有购物清单吗? #超级MEME周期?
There should be some hype before the official appointment, and it is estimated that when Old Ma officially takes office, he will directly change the introduction of X to chief of DOGE…#DOGE看涨情绪飙升
Many retail investors ask about the price they see. I have mentioned more than once that predicting short-term prices is basically akin to fortune-telling, but I can briefly discuss two probabilities that I see. 1. On-chain data expert @Murphychen888 conducted a very insightful on-chain data analysis. I will directly relay it; he analyzed all the on-chain data across different ranges, mainly focusing on their holding costs, retention, and profits, calculating the profit ratio of all holders in different ranges, which is the MVRV data. He concluded that historically, whenever the MVRV reaches above 3, it enters the bubble period, followed by a large-scale retracement. We are not there yet in this round, but if there is another explosive surge, it will reach the peak of this market cycle and enter consolidation. From the perspectives of retail investors, history, and on-chain data, the analysis is very rigorous. I believe this data analysis represents a typical classic blockchain model, where prices resonate with the psychology of retail investors, reaching a peak driven by emotions, and collapsing when profits are taken and investors rush to exit. Under this model, I believe it will not exceed $150,000, so during the next surge, there should be many retail investors and small whales (supportive holders from the early days) cashing out for profit, leading to price pressure and consolidation. 2. However, merely analyzing on-chain data is not enough. The second trend is that ETF holdings have surpassed Satoshi Nakamoto. This is a representative event that indicates the will of new money and institutions. As I mentioned before, the investments of institutions, especially sovereign wealth funds, are completely different from those of retail investors. They are rarely driven by emotions or profits. Once a decision is made, the entire price range and tolerance are several times that of retail investors. They value asset preservation and stability. Therefore, on-chain data is relatively difficult to reflect the situation of ETFs because the profits from ETFs are made off-chain in the stock market. So from the institutional perspective, what we see is a potential bulk investment product that might replace gold. I believe that next year, Bitcoin will reach at least a quarter of gold's market value, with the price going to around $200,000. This has little to do with whether retail investors buy or sell, and I believe this is the largest new source of capital for this wave, after all, the number of blockchain people who can maneuver wallets is much smaller compared to the vast number of stock market investors. This is roughly two high-probability events for your reference. #BTC连续破新高,你看到多少? Follow and like to stay on track.
Bicameral Congress + President, the strongest in history, Trump's impressive achievements are expected to be realized one by one, including the Bitcoin strategic reserve of #BTC连续破新高,你看到多少?
#牛回速归,晒晒你的持仓? After several months of chip accumulation, following the well-prepared Trump trade, the anticipated explosive moment has arrived. Here’s my holding strategy: 1. BTC: I started accumulating steadily from the price of around 20,000 dollars last year, holding 80% of my main position. At any time, listen to me and buy Bitcoin spot, even if you only have tens of thousands, you will thank your current self in the future! 2. $DOGE bought in large amounts at 0.1 dollars, holding 10% of my position. It’s simple, just betting on Trump winning and Musk winning. I won't sell it all before Trump's term ends. The feasibility of Musk's Mars colonization plan is very high from a first principles perspective. As a representative of a stateless colony, Commander Ma will definitely choose Dogecoin as the legal currency, aiming for a rise to 1 dollar. 3. $SOL holds 5% of my position. It’s simple; it has a good grassroots foundation and is expected to fill the gap of Aunt Sun's impotence. The public needs MEME, as the majority are retail gamblers, hence the MEME must have public chain support. 4. $WIF holds 1% of my position. A little bet for fun; I've been paying attention to this project from the start. It has a good community base and is sufficiently grassroots. A good MEME should be like this. 5. ETH holds 2% of my position. This wave is obviously a bit weak; the popularity in the crypto circle has been taken over by SOL, and the ETF has been intercepted by BTC ETF, ready to adjust at any time. 6. BNB holds 2% of my position. With CZ’s matters concluding, it has basically turned into a compliant company recognized by Americans. In a bull market, retail gamblers love to bet, so shares in casinos must be allocated! My trading principle is very simple: no contracts, no chasing those messy altcoins. Follow my allocation and if profits exceed 30%, manually take profits; if not, just hold on. In the end, only Bitcoin will remain for generations to come...
The years 2024 to 2025 will definitely be a historical moment for the crypto world. Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are likely to experience a new surge in the context of a weak dollar, and this surge could very well be above 100,000. Macro-wise, the world will enter a cycle of easy money... My article from four months ago has accurately predicted all of this, yet the retail investors still engage in contract trading and continue to be cut down. It seems that the plaza prefers to promote soft articles from masters of trading with rebate skills, which is nothing but nonsense. Meeting adjourned #BTC连续破新高,你看到多少? .
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Bitcoin: How to Take You Through History's Garbage Time
I haven't updated any content for a long time recently, and many fans in the community have been asking me what I'm busy with and what I think about the current market, so I decided to update an article with more content, which can be regarded as a systematic answer to some of the fans' questions, including sharing my views and insights on the current market. Recently, an article titled "History's Garbage Time" became popular, but was quickly deleted. The article mentioned Mises' concept of historical garbage time and gave examples. For example, the Ming Dynasty entered garbage time when Emperor Chongzhen killed Yuan Chonghuan. Although the Tang Dynasty had many years of national life after the Huang Chao Uprising, it still could not change its fate of destruction. The Qing people in the Opium War in 1894 and the Soviets when they invaded Afghanistan in 1979 did not realize that they might have to live with depression and downward cycles throughout their lives. In a football match, when the 90 minutes are approaching and one side is still far behind the other, the remaining time of the game is defined as garbage time.
Two months ago, I actually predicted the electoral vote count correctly!
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US election: Trump crowned, crypto king
$BTC #非农就业数据即将公布 #美联储何时降息? #On August 30, 2024, there are only 9 weeks left until the final voting date of November 5. The US election has finally reached its climax. On June 2, we predicted the result of the matchup between Biden and Trump, and Trump would have an absolute advantage. Things were just as we expected at the time. At the presidential debate that followed, Trump showed an absolute advantage. In the end, Biden was forced to withdraw from the presidential election under external pressure. In August 2024, at the Democratic National Convention, the current Vice President Harris was officially nominated as a candidate and will represent the Democratic Party in the 2024 US election. For a time, Harris's polls rose sharply, and she was in a state of anxiety with Trump. As the final voting time approaches, many bigwigs, political stars, Silicon Valley elites, etc. have "chosen sides" to stand up for their supporters and express their political views. This declaration of war that took a year has finally come to an end. Will Trump win, or will Harris come from behind and win the White House throne? We will adopt a new perspective to help you see the essence of the matter.
I firmly support Trump in October, based on common sense, unlike the gamblers in the square, who follow the wind. Next, we will witness a moment of miracles!
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US election: a critical juncture in the battle for liquidity
Readers who have read my previous long article 《终局思维:降息大选与比特币的明天》 should remember that I came to the conclusion very early: the extreme right forces represented by Trump will surely rise, and Bitcoin will eventually hit a record high. At that time, Trump's polls were still behind Harris, and Musk did not publicly support Trump. I have always been against and disgusted with predicting short-term market prices - this is usually the behavior of scammers or charlatans. As a long-term holder, my crypto investment philosophy is very simple: buy, store and hold. No need to pay attention to short-term fluctuations and market noise. If you can reach this level, I believe that 90% of the "scythes" in the market cannot cut you. In the previous article and the previous series of articles, I made the final prediction on the issue that readers care about most - the price of Bitcoin. Regardless of the model used and which party is in power, Bitcoin will eventually become a universal equivalent without borders, and its price will rise with the strengthening of the consensus base.
There will be a wave of pullbacks before and after the election. No matter who is elected, it cannot change the rise of crypto forces. This is determined by the bottom-level human perception of "value" and is not subject to subjective will.
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Since February, there have been calls to go long, yet there are still retail investors shocked every day. With only a few days left until the election, a wave of reversals is expected. Investing or speculating depends on the individual #比特币挖矿难度创历史新高
It’s really painful to pay attention to both of them at the same time and have them appear on the same timeline, as if on the left is a silly big sister and on the right is a stubborn old man, arguing across you, with saliva splattering all over your head....#美国大选后涨或跌?
Since February, there have been calls to go long, yet there are still retail investors shocked every day. With only a few days left until the election, a wave of reversals is expected. Investing or speculating depends on the individual #比特币挖矿难度创历史新高
Kamala Harris was completely tricked by Obama and Biden. Obama directly questioned why black people didn't vote for Kamala Harris during his speech, and was criticized by the black community for not being the king of black people. Biden also did not cooperate in digging holes for Kamala Harris, such as the slow disaster relief in Florida, and the loss of the black community as a Democratic stronghold. Basically, President Trump is sure to win this time #美国大选如何影响加密产业?
DJT has risen by 80%+. This is because voters have voted for Trump in advance. Trump has basically secured victory. If he can live safely until the election day, then the only thing we need to pay attention to is how many of his promises as the self-proclaimed crypto president can be fulfilled.
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US election: a critical juncture in the battle for liquidity
Readers who have read my previous long article 《终局思维:降息大选与比特币的明天》 should remember that I came to the conclusion very early: the extreme right forces represented by Trump will surely rise, and Bitcoin will eventually hit a record high. At that time, Trump's polls were still behind Harris, and Musk did not publicly support Trump. I have always been against and disgusted with predicting short-term market prices - this is usually the behavior of scammers or charlatans. As a long-term holder, my crypto investment philosophy is very simple: buy, store and hold. No need to pay attention to short-term fluctuations and market noise. If you can reach this level, I believe that 90% of the "scythes" in the market cannot cut you. In the previous article and the previous series of articles, I made the final prediction on the issue that readers care about most - the price of Bitcoin. Regardless of the model used and which party is in power, Bitcoin will eventually become a universal equivalent without borders, and its price will rise with the strengthening of the consensus base.
US election: a critical juncture in the battle for liquidity
Readers who have read my previous long article 《终局思维:降息大选与比特币的明天》 should remember that I came to the conclusion very early: the extreme right forces represented by Trump will surely rise, and Bitcoin will eventually hit a record high. At that time, Trump's polls were still behind Harris, and Musk did not publicly support Trump. I have always been against and disgusted with predicting short-term market prices - this is usually the behavior of scammers or charlatans. As a long-term holder, my crypto investment philosophy is very simple: buy, store and hold. No need to pay attention to short-term fluctuations and market noise. If you can reach this level, I believe that 90% of the "scythes" in the market cannot cut you. In the previous article and the previous series of articles, I made the final prediction on the issue that readers care about most - the price of Bitcoin. Regardless of the model used and which party is in power, Bitcoin will eventually become a universal equivalent without borders, and its price will rise with the strengthening of the consensus base.