I still remember the bull market in 2017, when a new currency was launched on a certain platform, and the price soared like a rocket, from 50 cents to 10,000 yuan. At that time, everyone thought it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, but just a few hours later, the price fell back to 50 cents. I heard that someone borrowed 1 million to buy at the top, but in the end only a few thousand yuan was left, which was really terrible. Such things make me always think twice before investing.

This time REEF is even more shocking. It plummeted 60% the day before yesterday. Many people thought it was a good opportunity to buy at the bottom, but yesterday it fell another 40%. Many people think this is the bottom, but what's more terrible is that it may continue to fall, which reminds people of the former Luna. The trend of such altcoins is like Mario's jump. You always think you have reached the bottom line, but in fact it can jump lower and lower. Newbies should never think that they have reached the bottom, otherwise they will fall into the bottomless abyss.

However, the more desperate the moment is, the more likely it is that a turnaround is about to come. I have already fully invested, waiting for a rebound, and I expect it to reach 0.1 this time.

The trend of the cryptocurrency circle is full of uncertainty and challenges, but it also contains potential opportunities. When participating in cryptocurrency investment, investors should fully understand the relevant risks, stay calm and rational at all times, and respond to market changes with a steady strategy.

The highest realm of cryptocurrency speculation;

1. Do not borrow money to speculate in cryptocurrency

2. Do not overdraw, use spare money to speculate in cryptocurrency

3. Never do short-term trading

4. If the opportunity does not come, it is better to wait with empty positions

5. Do not over-rely on technical indicators

6. Do not speculate in junk, unpopular and copycat currencies

7. No matter how good the currency is, it will not enter the market unless it is cut in half

8. Choose to short position after the bull market ends

9. Select the target, and once entering the market, it is a heavy position

#比特币 #以太坊

Bull Market Characteristics:
First 8 Months: The market shows slow fluctuations and consolidation adjustments, with funds gradually positioning.
Last 2 Months: Market sentiment rapidly heats up, forming a main upward wave, and prices surge dramatically.
Final 2 Months: Market sentiment reaches its peak, crazily building a top, with significantly increased risks.
Current Judgment:
The bull market started in March 2024 and is currently in a mid-term consolidation phase; the real explosion has yet to come.
Based on historical cycles, the explosive period is expected to be between February and May 2025, with the main upward wave completing most of its gains in just a few months.
The entire bull market may end in July 2025, followed by a bear market.

In the crypto world, earning 1 million in capital is a crucial first step to changing your destiny. For many, the rolling position strategy is the only choice to go from tens of thousands to 1 million.

Why is 1 million seen as a starting point? Once you have 1 million in capital, your investment perspective and life will be completely different. With no leverage, a 20% increase in spot trading can yield a profit of 200,000, which exceeds the annual income of most people.

The core secret of the rolling position strategy:
Patience is key: The profit potential of rolling positions is enormous, but this path requires finding high-certainty opportunities. Impulsive and random actions significantly increase the risk of failure.
Choosing the right timing: A sideways market after a sharp drop, followed by a breakout, is the best opportunity for rolling positions. Once the trend reverses, get in decisively from the start.
Only roll long positions: Focus solely on long positions to reduce the impact of market fluctuations on you. Going with the trend is the way to achieve stable victories.

The risks and misconceptions of rolling positions: Many believe that rolling positions carry high risks, but in fact, they are far lower than high-leverage futures. Taking 50,000 as an example:
An initial position of 10%, with a stop loss of only 2%, results in a maximum loss of 1,000 yuan.
If the market moves favorably, each increase can allow for compounding; for example, a market move from 10,000 to 15,000 can multiply profits several times.
The entire process steadily increases capital with low risk, rather than gambling everything at once. So what is the significance of rolling positions? Capturing two waves of 50% trend movements can turn 50,000 into 1 million. The rolling growth from capital to profit not only allows you to establish yourself in the crypto world but also lays a solid foundation for every future investment. The key lies in rationality, patience, and precise grasp of market opportunities.

1月8日热点;

1.据 Coinglass 数据，过去 24 小时内加密货币市场总爆仓金额达 5.42 亿美元，其中多单爆仓 4.84 亿美元，空单爆仓 5742.23 万美元
2.BIT Mining 进军埃塞俄比亚，利用低电价延长矿机寿命
3.Sol Strategies为Solana投资和质押扩展获得了2500万美元的信贷额度
4.Garanti BBVA Kripto 与 Bitstamp 合作推进加密交易服务
5.Backpack收购FTX EU，并对EU用户进行理赔

#本轮牛市周期预期

Bull markets often begin in moments of despair, unfolding amidst skepticism, and ultimately concluding in an absurd atmosphere.
In fact, the bull market has already started since the beginning of this year, and we are currently in a bull market phase.
The price of Bitcoin rose from 15,000 to 30,000, then climbed to 60,000, and now has reached 100,000. The true Bitcoin halving moment in mid-2024 will become the final bullish signal that drives the bull market into absurdity.
At that time, all low-priced chips will be sold off, marking the end of the bull market.
By 2025, prices may oscillate at high levels, while in reality, we have already entered a bear market phase.

Note Market Volatility: Caution Needed Before the Holiday
There are only 14 days left until Trump's inauguration and just 22 days until the New Year. Influenced by these timelines, market volatility may be significant. In this situation, whether it's rebalancing or positioning in promising cryptocurrencies, it's best to wait for the market to stabilize a bit before taking action. Currently, it is uncertain whether the cryptocurrencies with good upward momentum will correct, but there are indeed many opportunities in the market. I have already filtered out a few good targets and am just waiting for the right moment to enter.

Primary and Secondary Markets: Trend Observation
At present, the primary market is showing strong momentum, continuously hitting new highs, while the secondary market has experienced some degree of correction. Just like ai16z is nearing the last high-pressure level of 2.36, swarms are maintaining a sideways position around 0.5, seemingly building up strength for a sprint.
It is worth noting that recently, AI-related projects have been exceptionally popular, causing a diversion of traffic and capital from mainstream exchanges. Once the secondary market starts to rally, it may attract funds back. Regardless of the competitive landscape, as long as you hold onto quality leading coins, you can stand firm in the market.

Xiaomei is here to share trading insights again

Going with the trend is right, going against the trend is wrong. (Once a trend is established, it is difficult to change in the short term)
Using a light position is right, using a heavy position is wrong – a position influences attitude, and attitude influences decisions.
Being content is right, being greedy is wrong – greed is the enemy, contentment brings happiness.
Using stop-loss to protect profits is right, letting things run is wrong – protecting capital comes first, making money comes second. Objective trading is right, subjective analysis is wrong; objective trading follows the rules.
Waiting patiently is right, being impulsive is wrong; cultivate patience, act at the right moment.
Increasing positions when in profit is right, averaging down when in loss is wrong; profit is the correct direction, loss is the wrong direction.
Being calm and composed is right, being anxious about gains and losses is wrong; the essence of trading is the clash of human nature and mindset.

January 7 Hotspots;

1. Arthur Hayes: The crypto market may experience a short-term peak at the end of the first quarter due to the impact of RRP and TGA fund flows.
2. Nasdaq applies to raise the IBIT position limit to 250,000 contracts.
3. Sui's total locked value exceeds $2 billion, becoming one of the fastest-growing blockchains.
4. Asset management company Calamos will launch the first Bitcoin ETF offering 100% downside protection.
5. CoinShares: Inflows for 2024 reach a historical high of $44.2 billion.

If you make a fortune in this bull market, be sure to remember these 10 points
1. Keep it a secret, don't tell anyone, including family.
2. Pay off all debts first.
3. Save it and let it sit for a year before deciding.
4. Don't rush to buy a luxury house first.
5. Don't quit your current job yet.
6. Don't buy a car or luxury goods yet.
7. Don't partner with friends or relatives; continue to disguise yourself as a loser.
8. Don't let your children know about your wealth changes to avoid them being corrupted by money.
9. Maintain the status quo and treat your fortune as an unexpected gain.
10. Big data doesn't randomly push; seeing this post means you will really make a fortune in this bull market.

Trading Insights

1. For coins with an upward trend, after a period of increase, each time a bearish candle appears, treat it as a potential top and appropriately reduce your position.
2. If it continues to decline afterwards, do not buy again, only sell.
3. If it rises afterwards and consumes the previous bearish candles, increase your position and hold on.
4. Position control is that simple; sticking to it will ensure your peace of mind!

Hot topics on January 6;

1. According to Ali Martinez, an on-chain analyst, Ethereum remains strong in an ascending parallel channel, pointing to $6,000, despite volatile market conditions

2. Ripple CEO: 75% of the company's job openings have now been transferred back to the United States, and the Trump effect is boosting confidence in the crypto industry

3. Vitalik published an article reviewing the first anniversary of d/acc, discussing AI security and cryptocurrency applications

4. MARA Holdings lends 16% of its BTC reserves in the hope of making modest gains in 2024

5. Artificial Superintelligence Alliance will destroy 5 million FET tokens for the first time on January 10

Brothers, after staying in this circle for a long time, you need to learn not to overly focus on the market's arguments and noise,

just concentrate on your own interests and growth!

Do your own research, find your own competitiveness, choose your targets wisely, block out useless people and things, and spend more time thinking about how to make money, and that's enough.

Most people and things are here to drain you.

The old fox has a classic line: "What does it have to do with me!"

It fits perfectly here!

The second wave of doge is finally here. In fact, Musk hinted at it before the market pull-up. He posted a picture of doge to the moon.

This time doge should go to $1.

Looking ahead to the crypto market in January 2025, we can focus on the following sectors and coins:
MEME Coins: Such as SHIB, DOGE, PEPE, these coins have a high community influence and virality. Despite their volatility, their popularity often brings short-term gains.
AI Sector: AGIX, FET, WLD, these projects belong to the currently popular technological application direction. As the AI craze continues to ferment, their market performance is expected to continue to grow.
Public Chains: ETH, SOL, MATIC, as infrastructure projects, public chains remain a key focus of the market, especially with the continued development of the ETH ecosystem.
2024 Halving: BCH, BSV, ZEC, halving events usually stimulate market interest and trading enthusiasm, making them suitable for short-term speculation.
GameFi: SAND, MANA, GALA, with the ongoing popularity in the gaming sector, these projects may have certain upward potential.
Oracles: LINK, API3, TRB, as an important component of the DeFi ecosystem, oracles continue to receive market favor.
Payment Concepts: MOB, ACH, XLM, with the popularity of digital payment applications, related projects have strong growth potential.
Inscription-related Assets: ORDI, RATS, SATS, these projects related to Bitcoin inscriptions have certain historical value and speculative nature.
Storage Sector: FIL, AR, STORJ, the demand for decentralized storage continues to grow, making it a direction worth paying attention to in the long term.
DeFi: AAVE, COMP, RDNT, DeFi remains an important component of the crypto market, and related projects will continue to attract capital inflows.
NFT: BLUR, X2Y2, LOOKS, with the continuous development of the NFT market, related platforms and projects still have potential.
Modular: TIA, DYM, ALT, modular projects are providing innovative solutions for the scalability and interoperability of blockchain.
Sports Concepts: CHZ, SANTOS, POR, the combination of sports and crypto is deepening, making related projects worth attention.

Old Traders Discuss Trading Insights:

Trading: 20% Technique, 20% Luck, 60% Mindset

1. Determine the trend, find entry points, and calculate the risk-reward ratio.
2. Frequent trading, unable to control hands, set goals for yourself, and stop trading after earning a fixed amount of U each day. Earning a living through trading is a mindset that cannot be achieved in the market.
3. Do not set stop-losses and go heavy, which can lead to significant account drawdowns and is difficult to handle technically; this is a big taboo.
4. Open a position with account profits, do not set a breakeven point; small money is looked down upon, and large money cannot be earned. Many mature traders also make this mistake.
5. When determining the trend, do not open counter-trend pullback orders for small profits if you do not have a trend-following position; you must focus on one direction!
6. Same entry stop-loss and take-profit points given by the teacher. 7 out of 10 trades profitable, 3 trades with losses, which will result in some making money while others lose (liquidation).
7. Define loss in terms of quantity; calculate how much you can lose with each stop-loss. For example: with an account of 10,000 U, you can accept a stop-loss of 500 U for BTC each time. If the stop-loss is 1,000 points down, set 0.5 BTC; if the stop-loss is 500 points down, set 1 BTC.
8. Trading anxiety leads to poor eating and lack of sleep. Continuously checking the phone while holding positions; even when passing a traffic light, you have to check the phone. This is a common problem for beginners. If you cannot overcome the mental barrier, you cannot trade well.
9. Set stop-losses when opening positions, ensuring each trade is within an acceptable range. Never be liquidated; any amount of U can be earned back. It's not about who makes more temporarily, but about who can survive in this ever-changing trading market.

January 4 Hotspots;

1. MicroStrategy plans to issue up to $2 billion in preferred stock to increase its Bitcoin holdings
2. Coinbase obtains FDIC documents revealing 'Operation Chokepoint 2.0' limiting crypto activities
3. Mike Johnson re-elected as Speaker of the House, pro-crypto lawmakers may push legislative progress
4. Ethena expands further into traditional finance by supporting Telegram payments and the iUSDe token
5. Hyperliquid records a trading volume of $268.9 billion over three months, with staking accounting for 38.01%

Some people ask whether the cryptocurrency circle should play spot or contract. Let me briefly explain.

I personally think that both are possible. There are only two trading methods in the secondary market, "spot" and "" contract. Most of the individual players in the cryptocurrency circle are retail investors, with initial capital of less than 100,000 U, a few are around 1 million U, and very few are more than 5 million U.
So what are the differences in their ways of making money? Can both spot and contract make money? The answer is yes, both are possible.        
For players with more than 1 million U, they pay more attention to stability and do not care about short-term returns. They prefer to play spot trading, tend to conservative trading, and make bull-bear cyclical investments, with a time as short as one year and as long as 3 years or even longer, with a return rate of 5-10 times, which is enough.      
 So, what about the vast majority of retail investors? In terms of the timing of entry and the amount of funds, contracts are the preferred choice for retail investors, because they have higher expectations for short-term returns, and of course, higher risks. This requires a more complete trading strategy. I do not agree with the way of playing with a small investment and a big investment. It is definitely necessary to increase the risk. The funds themselves are relatively small. If you want to play with a small investment and a big investment, you will definitely have a certain gambling mentality. If you lose, you may lose everything. I care more about the 1+1 method and accumulate wealth slowly.

Hot topics on January 3;

1. Yesterday, BlackRock IBIT's pre-market trading volume was $67 million, 31% of which were active buy orders

2. USDC Treasury minted 400 million USDC and transferred 300 million USDC to Coinbase

3. BlackRock's BUIDL has been approved as a supporting token for Frax Finance's frxUSD stablecoin

4. Cryptoquant CEO: Trump will make Bitcoin stronger

5. A whale bought more than 1.08 billion DOGE in the past 24 hours

I have been hearing a term recently, called "dispersion".

As we all know, coins like ACT and PNUT have too high dispersion and cannot pull up the market at all. But wasn't ORDI's dispersion not low back then?

Some people say that it started to distribute after it was listed on BN, but after ORDI was listed on BN that year, it was still able to pull up a little 10 times.

So is it a problem of retail investors or a problem of BN?

Is it insufficient liquidity or a problem with the distribution of benefits?